Now that we have actual College Football Playoff Rankings, I am using those instead of AP rankings going forward. The big game on the calendar for Saturday is No. 11 Alabama at No. 14 LSU. The loser will pick up their third loss of the season, and while it will likely stay in the CFP Rankings, it will be done as a playoff contender.
With only one three-loss team in the first set of rankings and a month to go, it seems pretty unlikely that an at-large team will be selected at 9-3. A team that loses its conference championship game to fall to 10-3 would still have a chance.
There probably isn’t enough interplay at the top of the SEC or Big Ten to produce a three-loss conference runner up, but it is more likely in the SEC because there are two games left between teams currently sitting on one loss in the league. Texas A&M is the only one with two losses overall. The only game left among the top four teams in the Big Ten is Indiana at Ohio State.
Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.
I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. Now that we are into November, I have expanded the “Other CFP candidates” list to the CFP top 16 plus the highest ranked Group of Five team if not already in the top 16.
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Week 11 Picks
Maryland at No. 1 Oregon (-25.5): Oregon is the first No. 1 team in the CFP Rankings in the 12-team playoff era. It’s earned every bit of it, too, and one thing does well is take care of business in games like this. The Terrapins have not been too competitive in three of their last four game, the exception being a win over USC. Pick: Oregon -25.5
Michigan at No. 8 Indiana (-14.5): This betting line is more in line with how the Hoosiers have performed this season. Still, Michigan has not been even a shadow of the national championship team a year ago. The Wolverines come in having lost three out of four. IU needs to keep sending messages to the committee. Here comes another one. Pick Indiana -14.5
No. 9 BYU (-4) at Utah, Friday: What a great season for the Cougars, who were picked to finish in the bottom quarter of the Big 12 in their debut season. Now, they are the favorite to win it and their arch rivals are the next team standing in the way. If Utah was healthy, there might be a lot more on the line in this game, but it’s not and I expect a comfortable BYU win. Pick: BYU -4
Upset of the Week
Cal at (-7) Wake Forest: Here we have a couple of teams fighting for a shot at the postseason who really need a win here because of the harder schedules ahead. The Demon Deacons come in winning three of their last four, all on the road. Cal was competitive against Miami a month ago, but that ended up starting a four-game losing streak that ended last week. I think these two are more evenly matched than the line indicates, so I’ll take the home team Pick: Wake Forest (+7)