The College Football Playoff selection committee historically doesn’t look fondly on Group of Five teams. Last season, Tulane was the highest-ranked such team in the first CFP Rankings at No. 24 with a 7-1 record. In Boise State, though, there is an exception.
The Broncos left the initial rankings as one of the biggest winners of the day after clocking in at No. 12. The ranking puts them 13 spots ahead of any other potential Group of Five champion and within striking distance of the top 10.
Granted, Boise State’s case is solid. The Broncos have a 21-point win over Washington State, which sits at No. 21 in the CFP Rankings. A road win against UNLV should sit somewhere in the top 40. The Broncos are outscoring teams by nearly three touchdowns on average, and the only loss is a last-second drop against No. 1 Oregon.
If Boise State wins the Mountain West, the program is assured the Group of Five’s automatic bid in the College Football Playoff. That’s the baseline in the expanded 12-team field, but after coming in at No. 12, the Broncos suddenly have the ability to dream even bigger.
Boise State’s spot in the CFP Rankings puts it only three spots behind No. 9 BYU. Even more importantly, the Broncos are ahead of No. 13 SMU, No. 17 Iowa State, No. 21 Colorado and No. 22 Kansas State– every secondary contender from the Big 12 and ACC.
If BYU and Miami finish their seasons undefeated, Boise State will assuredly finish at the fifth automatic qualifier. If either is a one-loss team though, things get interesting. The Cougars especially would be at serious risk of falling behind Boise State in the rankings.
And then, there’s the possibility of a title game upset. If Miami or BYU lose their respective conference championship game, Boise State is set up extremely well to stay ahead of the winner, whether SMU or Iowa State. That would give the Broncos the possibility of earning a first-round bye and the 4-seed. The expanded CFP model only guarantees the top four conference champions will earn first-round byes; it never guarantees the four power conferences.
But even if the Big 12 and ACC champions finish ahead of the Broncos, more is on the table. The Broncos could move higher than the 12-seed in the final bracket, perhaps even competing with Indiana or Tennessee. If things really break interestingly, the Broncos could fight their way into the top eight. If that happens, Boise State would be on track to host a CFP game at Albertsons Stadium.
By the way, Boise State will arguably have the best player in any game it plays from here on out. Running back Ashton Jeanty is on track to contend with Barry Sanders for the all-time rushing and rushing touchdown records. He is averaging 191 yards per game and hit 192 yards and three touchdowns against Oregon.
Now, look, being a Cinderella in the College Football Playoff will not be easy. In the first CFP bracket, 12-seed Boise State is projected to face 5-seed Ohio State in the first round. According to College Football Insiders, the Broncos would be 16-point underdogs (view more college football betting lines). That said, they also would be 17-point underdogs traveling to play Oregon, and the Broncos were only a field goal away from pulling the upset. If Boise State knows one thing, too, it’s pulling postseason upsets.
Previously, Cincinnati earned its way into the top four in 2021. UCF would have easily made an expanded CFP as a top-eight seed in 2017. However, in the first year of the expanded College Football Playoff, Boise State (despite a loss) sits in great control of its own destiny. The Broncos have a chance to shake everything up.