On Thursday, Florida announced it will retain coach Billy Napier for the foreseeable future — likely into the 2025 season — making a strong statement on the program’s commitment to its third-year leader. It’s one of the more unexpected decisions of the 2024 season, given Florida’s uninspiring 4-4 record eight games into what many saw as a make-or-break year for Napier and the Gators.
It was certainly made with one eye towards the future. Florida is on the cusp of back-to-back seasons without a postseason appearance for the first time in 40 years. It has to steal two more wins to gain bowl eligibility against a remaining schedule that features No. 5 Texas, No. 14 LSU, No. 16 Ole Miss and rival Florida State. The Seminoles are going through their own turbulent year but have earned wins against Florida in consecutive years with an average scoring margin of 13 points.
What will that future under Napier actuallly look like? Things haven’t been trending in the right direction, though Napier has done a decent job attracting talent to Gainesville in recent years. The Gators haven’t had a winning season with Napier at the helm yet, and they’re 5-8 in SEC play since the start of the 2023 season.
Given the latest news, it felt fair to take a look at what Florida could look like next year, and where the Gators go from here now that Napier has some more leeway.
Offense is in decent shape
Not saying quarterback DJ Lagway is the only reason Florida decided to bring Napier back, but it’s hard to deny that the five-star freshman phenom’s presence has impacted the process. Lagway, 247Sports’ No. 3 overall prospect and top-ranked quarterback in the class of 2024, is special enough to be a program cornerstone.
He took over as the full-time starter after Graham Mertz injured his ACL in a Week 7 loss to Tennessee, providing plenty of seasoning. Lagway has completed 56 passes for 1,071 yards and six touchdowns while rushing for 114 yards. His potential is evident, with a huge arm and impressive accuracy on downfield throws.
There’s a ton of athleticism packed inside Lagway’s 6-foot-3, 239-pound frame. giving him the ability to make plays outside the pocket and gain substantial yardage with his legs. Moving on from Napier, who recruited Lagway, could have made it difficult to keep highly-coveted prospect from entering the transfer portal. A consistent coaching staff gives him a solid reason to stay.
Beyond Lagway, Florida appears to be in decent shape across the rest of its offense — assuming all eligible players return. Here’s a breakdown of Florida’s potential returning production on offense, eight games into the 2024 season:
|
Yards passing |
1,958 |
1,267 |
59.6% |
|
Touchdowns passing |
12 |
6 |
50% |
|
Yards rushing |
1,359 |
874 |
64% |
|
Touchdowns rushing |
17 |
11 |
64.7% |
|
Yards receiving |
1,958 |
911 |
46.5% |
|
Touchdowns receiving |
12 |
8 |
66.7% |
Florida has other young, talented skill players that it wants to keep in the fold. Freshman running back Jadan Baugh has shown he could be a reliable option out of the backfield over the next few years.
Sophomore wide receiver Eugene Wilson III is out for the rest of the year after undergoing hip surgery, but he’s one of the SEC’s most electric playmakers when healthy. Those two are key for Florida’s future, especially since the Gators are in line to lose Johnson and their top two receivers — Elijhah Badger and Chimere Dike — after the 2024 season.
All five of Florida’s primary starting offensive linemen could also return in 2025. Of course, this comes with the natural caveats that some players could declare for the NFL Draft early, and the transfer portal is always an option, whether Napier is back or not.
Young core on defense
Be it because of injuries or players standing out, Florida has had a bit of a youth movement on defense — especially among sophomores. Second-year players have made a big impact at every level of Florida’s defense.
Edge rushers Kamran James and T.J. Searcy are getting plenty of snaps. Linebackers Grayson Howard and Jaden Robinson both rank top-five on the team in total tackles and have combined for 2.5 sacks. Safety Jordan Castell, who played a big role as a freshman, is second among defensive backs with 36 total tackles and currently leads the Gators with five pass breakups. Sophomore Sharif Denson and redshirt freshman Aaron Gates have both hauled in an interception while rotating in at slot corner.
Key veterans like defensive lineman Tyreak Sapp, linebacker Shemar James and cornerback Devin Moore all have at least one more year of eligibility. All of those players constitute a strong defensive core that Florida absolutely wants to keep together, especially with so many young players that will continue to develop.
Recruiting in a rocky place
Talent acquisition hasn’t been a problem for Napier thus far. Florida posted consecutive top-15 recruiting classes from 2023-24. As discussed above, many of those prospects are already contributing.
Napier has also done well in the transfer portal. Florida’s 2024 transfer haul ranked sixth in the nation, per 247Sports, and the Gators have signed 12 four-star transfers over the last two cycles.
That being said, Florida’s recruiting has suffered amid Napier’s continued struggles. The Gators’ 2025 class boasts just 11 commits with less than a month to go until the early signing period. It holds the 51st spot in the 247Sports Team Composite recruiting rankings. There are a couple of gems, like wide receiver Vernell Brown III, but seven of Florida’s 11 commits are three-star prospects.
The Gators have had three prospects decommit since the start of the 2024 season; all three are four-star players.
With most high-level recruits already committed and time running out to pull flips, Florida’s in a tough spot — especially since an overwhelming majority of players will sign during the December window. Of course, Florida could shop for talent in the portal, but the program’s current path — even with renewed faith in Napier — could make it a hard sell for transfers seeking a stable situation where they can improve their stock.
Again, there’s still the possibility that some of those young Gator standouts decide to search for new programs. So any sort of turnaround could largely hinge on Napier’s ability to retain and develop in-house options.
MORE: 10 recruits the Gators must go all-in on with Napier returning, per Swamp247
