The 2023 NBA Draft class may go down as one of the most memorable in recent history. It gave us a generational talent in Victor Wembanyama, and a slew of players that range from potential All-Stars to potentially in-demand role players down the road. With a current rookie class that has lacked standout performances, it felt right to check in on the second-year players who have impressed early in the season.
It’s only Week 2, but already we’ve got some unexpected production from guys like Bilal Coulibaly, who is averaging 17.7 points a year removed from not even breaking the 10-point average in his rookie season. We’ve also got Dereck Lively II continuing to be an absolute steal for the Mavericks, as he appears to be a centerpiece big man for years to come. Scoot Henderson is still struggling with his efficiency, but he looks more comfortable this season as he comes off the bench in Portland.
The sophomore class has given us a lot to look at, so let’s dive into some of the bigger storylines from this class.
Wembanyama’s offense lagging behind defensive prowess
Let’s start with the positive. Wemby’s right on track to win Defensive Player of the Year. He’s leading the league in blocks with nearly four a game, he’s limiting opponents to just 35% from the field when he’s guarding them and the on/off defensive numbers are eye-popping. The Spurs allow 14.5 fewer points with Wembanyama on the floor than when he sits, which ranks in the 93rd percentile, per Cleaning the Glass. The defense from Wembanyama has been as game-changing as expected, but his offense has been shaky since the start of the season.
Wembanyama’s still practically unstoppable around the rim, shooting 79% from there — a 9% bump from a season ago. But his efficiency elsewhere isn’t great.
Wembanyama’s shot accuracy
|
Rim |
70% |
79% |
|
Short mid-range |
39% |
33% |
| Long mid-range | 33% | 38% |
| Corner 3s | 55% | 0% |
| Non-corner 3s | 31% | 23% |
Through seven games, Wembanyama’s shot profile has changed a bit from his rookie season. He’s taking fewer shots at the rim and significantly more 3s this season.
Wembanyama’s shot frequency
|
Rim |
37% |
34% |
|
Short mid-range |
22% |
11% |
|
Long mid-range |
11% |
14% |
|
Corner 3s |
2% |
1% |
|
Non-corner 3s |
29% |
40% |
That change wouldn’t be a big deal if he weren’t shooting 22% on 3s this season, a number that certainly doesn’t warrant over seven 3-point attempts per game. Two weeks into the season doesn’t warrant sweeping generalizations, but so far the 2023 No. 1 pick is struggling to be effective on offense outside of the paint.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Despite the old soul that Wembanyama exudes, he’s still just 20 years old. He entered the season with larger-than-life expectations placed upon him. We’re talking MVP-contending, best player in the league expectations. And what we’ve seen through the first two weeks shows that we need to slow down a little and give this still otherworldly talent time to grow at the appropriate rate. It’s not all going to come at once for Wembanyama, and these poor shooting numbers may change when we look at them in a few weeks or even at the season’s end, but right now, he’s far from the dominant player people expected him to be on offense from the start.
Thunder’s Holmgren looking like a star in OKC
Chet Holmgren doesn’t garner the same level of attention as Wembanyama, in part because he joined a team that already had a strong nucleus in place led by someone who figures to be a mainstay in the MVP conversation for years to come in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. But after a rookie season where he finished as runner-up to Wemby for Rookie of the Year after averaging 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.3 blocks a game on 53% from the field and 37% from deep, Holmgren’s taken the next step in his development toward becoming a perennial All-Star.
Through the first two weeks, Holmgren looks like the generational talent Wembanyama has been lauded as, and while that doesn’t take anything away from the latter, it brings some much-deserved attention to the OKC unicorn. Holmgren’s efficiency and consistency on both sides of the floor have been a huge reason why the Thunder are still undefeated.
Holmgren can be a 3-point catch-and-shoot mercenary that you should never leave open, firing off a shot that’s unblockable due to his height. He can also target weaker defenders 1-on-1, giving the Thunder a much-needed shot creator next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. We saw that against the Spurs, where Holmgren relished being guarded by San Antonio big man Zach Collins.
On one occasion, Holmgren got Collins out on an island and showed off his guard-like handles before driving to his right, stopping on a dime and turning into a mid-range jumper. Collins did a great job of cutting off Holmgren’s path to the basket, but the difficulty in guarding the Thunder big man resides in his versatility.
A minute after that, Holmgren pump-faked out at the 3-point line, drove to his right and got all the way to the rim with force before spinning to his left off Collins and completing a tough layup at the rim. The fluidity Holmgren moves with makes him a tough assignment for slow-footed big men, and even if defenders do manage to keep up with Holmgren, his 7-foot-1 size becomes the ultimate neutralizer.
These are things we saw flashes of last season from Holmgren, but now it’s looking like a regular occurrence. His 3-point output is a hair below what it was last season, four percentage points lower to be exact, and as a result we’re seeing more of Holmgren’s offensive game unlocked beyond just a catch-and-shoot threat.
Dick taking a massive leap in Toronto
No one, and I mean no one, could’ve predicted this type of rise for Gradey Dick. I always held lots of stock in the Kansas product, especially after the last two months of Dick’s rookie season when he bumped up his counting stats to nearly 12 points a game on 45% from the field and 39% from deep. But never did I think he would be leading the sophomore class in points per game (21.6), while shooting an efficient 47.3% from the field and 38.3% from deep.
Some of that progression was expected after he saw a bump in minutes and was promoted to the starting lineup, but being the second-leading scorer behind RJ Barrett while All-Star forward Scottie Barnes is sidelined? Absolutely baffling.
Dick is a knockdown shooter from deep, but we knew that when he entered the league. But what’s been especially impressive is his scoring off the bounce. He’s making contested shots, displaying great decision-making, and has been very active on defense in racking up steals.
He’s prone to turnovers — seven in the last three games — but that will decrease as he learns to read the defense, make smart passes, and deal with a double team.
It’s a rebuilding year for the Raptors. And while that may result in a lot of losing, the early silver lining so far has been Dick’s development into something other than just a decent role player. I may be falling for the small sample size, so we’ll see if this type of production is sustainable. If it is, the Raptors have something special on their hands.
Looking for more NBA coverage? John Gonzalez, Bill Reiter, Ashley Nicole Moss and special guests dive deep into the league’s biggest storylines daily on the Beyond the Arc podcast.