We’ve done it. We’ve finally reached the first weekend of the 2024 college football season that won’t see us all hammered over the head repeatedly by political ads. Election Day has come and gone, and we can finally get back to what matters: watching football while being sold beer, prescription drugs, and $50,000 cars as Christmas gifts.
Of course, if we’re going to buy all those things, we’ll need money! Thankfully, The Six Pack was able to provide us some last week, as we had our best betting week of the season, going 5-1. We’re still not out of the hole we dug early in the season, though, so there’s no time to feel good about ourselves.
Heads down, eyes on the prize. Let’s get it.
All college football betting odds below provided via FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars.
Games of the Week
No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss: The Ole Miss offense finally exploded last week, as the Rebels put up 63 points on Arkansas and did so without Tre Harris. But can we count on them to do it again? I don’t think so. In nonconference play, Ole Miss had an explosive-play rate of 22.1%, but that number has dropped to 13.9% against SEC foes, with the most significant decline coming in the run game. In short, Ole Miss can’t run the ball against SEC defenses. The Rebels remind me of Texas in that way — and we saw what Georgia’s defense did to the Longhorns when it didn’t have to worry about the run. The Dawgs pinned their ears back and made life hell for one of the best offensive lines in the country.
On the flip side, Carson Beck was awful that night — and that’s happened a lot lately. He’s turning the ball over too often and has played poorly under pressure. Beck has been pressured on 66 of his 315 dropbacks this year. He’s completing just 36.2% of his passes (for 4.9 yards per attempt) and has been sacked eight times while under duress. When he isn’t sacked, it’s often because he’s throwing the ball to the other team. Beck has thrown four of his 11 interceptions this year while pressured. That’s 8.5% of his dropbacks, compared to 2.9% (which still isn’t great) when not under pressure. Guess which defense ranks fourth nationally in pressure rate this season? Yep, Ole Miss. So, on one side, it’s hard to imagine the Ole Miss offense will be nearly as effective this week against Georgia’s defense, and there’s little reason to expect the Bulldogs’ offense will thrive against the Rebels. The play seems obvious to me.The Pick: Under 55 (-110) via DraftKings
No. 11 Alabama at No. 15 LSU: I won’t pretend LSU’s historic success in home night games doesn’t play a major role in my thought process. However, it’s not the sole reason for this play. There are parts of this matchup that tilt the Tigers’ direction.
What I don’t like about LSU’s offense is that the Tigers can’t run the ball, so they don’t try. Instead, they put everything on the shoulders of Garrett Nussmeier. But that might just be the right approach in this game. Defensively, Alabama plays a lot of man coverage compared to the national average, and Nussmeier has torn man coverage apart this season. He has a touchdown rate of 8.9% against man and is yet to throw an interception. Against zone, the touchdown rate drops to 2.8%, and the interception rate is 3.7%. The Tide defense has a tough time generating pressure without blitzing, so they blitz often. Their blitz rate is the 14th-highest in the country, and it’s a contributing factor to why they’re so often in man. Well, Nuss rips when blitzed, too. His touchdown rate against the blitz is 10.5%, and he’s yet to throw an interception while only being sacked twice. LSU’s defense won’t allow the Tigers to pull away from Alabama, but based on the situation, I trust Nuss more in this spot than Jalen Milroe.The Pick: LSU +3 (-110) via BetMGM
Lock of the Week
West Virginia at Cincinnati: It’s never a good sign when fans are paying for ads demanding your firing, and that’s the situation West Virginia coach Neal Brown is currently . The pressure likely won’t ease anytime soon, as the Mountaineers are poised to drop to 4-5 after their trip to Cincinnati. It’s a tough matchup for West Virginia. Offensively, the Mountaineers remain boom-or-bust — especially in the passing game — and this year has featured far fewer “booms.” Cincinnati isn’t a defensive powerhouse, but the Bearcats have been more effective against the pass than the run. West Virginia’s pass defense has been dreadful, and Cincinnati quarterback Brenden Sorsby has thrown the ball well. The Bearcats rank seventh nationally in passing success rate and 18th in EPA per dropback. Given that advantage, plus the home-field edge, Cincinnati appears to have the upper hand. The Pick: Cincinnati -4.5 (-115) via FanDuel
Fade of the Week
Oklahoma at No. 24 Missouri: I won’t argue about whether Missouri should be ranked right now because I don’t think it’ll matter after this weekend. The betting line for this game opened with Mizzou as a 2.5-point favorite and has moved to Oklahoma -3. People aren’t suddenly buying the Sooners; the reason for the move is Missouri QB Brady Cook isn’t likely to play. That would mean a third start for Drew Pyne, and in his previous two starts, he’s completed 16 of 33 passes for 120 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions. For all Oklahoma’s faults, the defense has remained solid, and Jackson Arnold has played well against South Carolina and Ole Miss since reclaiming the starting gig. The Pick: Oklahoma -3 (-105) via DraftKings
Underdog of the Week
Oklahoma State at TCU: What a week for Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy. The man is never shy about sticking his foot in his mouth. This week, he ripped his own fans, saying, “They can’t pay their own bills.” He then apologized for it Tuesday night when America was busy watching MACtion (or maybe it was the election). What does that have to do with my pick? Nothing, but it leads to this segue: while the whole world is aware of what Mike Gundy is saying, not nearly as many people are paying attention to TCU’s depth chart. Sonny Dykes announced the Horned Frogs will probably be without defensive tackles Markis Deal and Hakeem Ajijolaiya in this game. The TCU defensive line lost another starter earlier this season, and the best one it had last year transferred out before the season began. Consider me skeptical that the TCU defensive line has enough depth to withstand so much attrition.The Pick: Oklahoma State +11.5 (-110) via Caesars
Under of the Week
No. 4 Miami at Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech coach Brent Pry is hopeful Haynes King will return after missing Tech’s last two games, but that the quarterback remains a game-time decision. If King can’t play, I love this under more than most parents love their children because Tech’s offense isn’t nearly as good without King. If he does play, I still like it a lot because he’ll be in his first game in nearly a month, and Miami’s biggest defensive weakness is in the secondary. As for the Canes offense, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see them call off the dogs should they get ahead late. Cam Ward took some hits last week as they looked to run up the score a bit on Duke, that may cause Mario Cristobal to reconsider his approach here. The Pick: Under 63.5 (-108) via DraftKings
|
Games of the Week |
1-1 |
10-10 |
-0.96 |
|
Lock of the Week |
1-0 |
6-4 |
+1.58 |
|
Overall |
5-1 |
31-29 |
-0.76 |
