Parity is about to impact college football like a Pat McAfee muscle shirt impacts fashion. In both cases, the result is unsightly. That’s at least one takeaway as we head into the final four weeks of the regular season.
In a season where there are few dominant teams but a lot of really good ones, one reality is becoming clear: If you’re thinking that a 10-2 record is the cutoff for getting into the 12-team College Football Playoff field, you’re mistaken. There is actually a bottleneck at that number.
CBS Sports this week accounted for the 19 teams ranked in the first release of the College Football Playoff Rankings with one or two losses. That seemed a good place to land in assessing that 10-2 cutoff. (The five undefeated teams were not considered.)
Conclusion: There are about to be some bitter tears in the SEC. Of those 19, eight are from the mighty SEC. Considering there are only 12 playoff spots, some very good two-loss teams are going to be left out — and left unhappy.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if multiple 10-2 teams got left out,” CBS Sports bowls expert Jerry Palm said.
With four weeks to go, the 9-3 argument launched by the SEC last summer suddenly doesn’t have legs.
There is one true playoff elimination game this week. The loser of No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 15 LSU probably cannot survive a third loss. Why? The 10-2 cup overflows. As of Saturday night, that will leave 18 CFP-ranked teams with a chance to finish (at least) 10-2 in the regular season.
Here are the ranked members of what we’re calling Club 10-2 to date:
* denotes SEC teams
- No. 2 Ohio State 7-1
- No. 3 Georgia 7-1*
- No. 5 Texas 7-1*
- No. 6 Penn State 7-1
- No. 7 Tennessee 7-1*
- No 10 Notre Dame 7-1
- No. 11 Alabama 6-2*
- No. 12 Boise State 7-1
- No. 13 SMU 8-1
- No. 14 Texas A&M 7-2*
- No. 15 LSU 6-2*
- No. 16 Ole Miss 7-2*
- No. 17 Iowa State 7-1
- No 18 Pittsburgh, 7-1
- No. 19 Kansas State 7-2
- No. 20 Colorado 6-2
- No. 21 Washington State 7-1
- No. 23 Clemson, 6-2
- No. 24 Missouri 6-2*
There are still six total games left between teams on this list.
- Alabama at LSU, Saturday
- Georgia at Ole Miss, Saturday
- Tennessee at Georgia, Nov. 16
- Clemson at Pittsburgh, Nov. 16
- Texas at Texas A&M, Nov. 30
- Kansas State at Iowa State, Nov. 30
It adds up to a monstrous game of musical chairs. That is, if the music is by Yoko Ono and the chairs are worth millions of dollars.
And in Club 10-2, we’re not even including the likes of Missouri (6-2), UNLV (6-2), Arizona State (6-2), Syracuse (6-2), Memphis (7-2), Navy (6-2) and Tulane (7-2), all of whom have a chance to reach (at least) 10 wins.
Remember, five of the 12 playoff spots go to conference champions, which leaves just seven at-large spots. So it’s worth reminding that with four weeks to go, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU and even Alabama in a longshot have a chance to either win the SEC or be left out of the playoff.
Week 11 storylines
The biggest question about Carson Beck: Can Georgia win a national championship with their quarterback? That question would have been unthinkable before the season. Now, it’s essential to Georgia’s future because 1) anything less than a title will be a disappointment for the Dawgs because 2) if that happens, Beck himself will have been a disappointment. He threw three more interceptions in the win against Florida. With at least five games to go, Beck’s 11 interceptions are the most in a season by Georgia quarterback since Aaron Murray in 2011. All 11 of those interceptions came in the last five games. It seems like Beck now has football’s version of the yips. It happens. But how to get out of it? Unknown. Heading into Ole Miss, Beck’s play could be the difference between the playoff and the Citrus Bowl.
The fallout of Alabama-LSU: As mentioned, welcome to the first big CFP elimination game. With both sides having already lost twice, the loser has little to no hope of playoff life with a third loss (see above). The losing coach will get an earful, especially if it’s Kalen DeBoer. While LSU fans have been upset with Brian Kelly’s ability to win more consistently, there is a different kind of pressure for an Alabama coach who doesn’t achieve. Even if Nick Saban had stayed, there was every possibility the Crimson Tide could slump to 9-3 if you looked at the schedule and roster. But this is another example of never being the guy to follow the guy. DeBoer knew this was a possibility and bet on himself and his success so he could keep this dynasty going. If Alabama loses, it will have missed the CFP in two of the last three seasons. Kelly announced himself at LSU two years ago with a one-point win over Alabama. But becoming the second LSU coach to win 10 game in each of his first two seasons — Les Miles was the other — haven’t been enough.
Indiana blowouts: How do you not rank Indiana No. 2 in the CFP Rankings? Along with Oregon, the Hoosiers have been the most consistent team this season. The way No. 8 Indiana is winning games might be its best attribute in future CFP Rankings. The average margin of victory (32.9 points) would be the highest since 2019. That number is also higher than what 101 FBS teams are scoring per game. It had better pay for the Hoosiers to run it up. Its schedule strength is among the worst of all the competitors in the country. That would improve, supposedly, this week against Michigan.
The most underrated rivalry in college football: That would be Utah vs. BYU, the Holy War, which is being played for the first time this week as a Big 12 conference game. There is added emotion with this possibly being Utah coach Kyle Whittingham’s last such game. The matchup features the Big 12’s most surprising team (undefeated No. 9 BYU) and one of most disappointing (Utah 4-4). For the first time since the series began in 1896, a chance to play for the national title will be on the line for one team.
“I can’t think of anything other than the best rivalries in the world being identified by a simple name,” said Hans Olsen, a BYU defensive tackle from 1996-2000 and Salt Lake City radio personality. “People really want to get rid of the Holy War. They want to get rid of that name. They feel like it incites a very dirty underbelly to the rivalry. It’s so crazy how this rivalry has embraced angels and demons. The righteous and unrighteous.
“It’s so [good] because the University of Utah has plenty of upstanding members of the same church and religion that BYU represents. You know there are three things you don’t touch is race, religion and politics. You bring in the religion aspect of a rivalry, it does fire up a pure-bred hate between the two.”
This is no way for a super conference to behave: Very quietly, the Big Ten had a disappointing CFP Rankings debut this week. Only four of conference’s 18 schools (22.2%) showed up in those rankings (Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana). Yes, all three are ranked in the top 11, but that’s the worst percentage among Power Four schools and tied for third behind the SEC (eight), ACC (five) in number of schools by conference. The Big 12 also has four teams, but that number represents a quarter of the 16-team conference.
The Big Ten has averaged 4.36 teams in the first set of rankings (25.3% of its teams). The high was six in 2021 and 2019. The low being three in both 2022 and 2023. The SEC has averaged six teams in the first week and just set a record with eight of the top 25 on Tuesday. The league has averaged an FBS high 42.3% of teams in the first week.
Surprised?
Approaching controversy: I’ve already seen Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty being called the first Heisman Trophy winner from a “non-power conference school” since Ty Detmer in 1990. Let’s be clear, 40 years ago the WAC was considered a power conference, before the term was invented, as a member of the College Football Association (CFA). That was the equivalent of today’s Power Four. BYU won the national championship in 1984 playing in the WAC. In 1996, BYU won 14 games, beat Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl and finished fifth. Ten times since 1980, a BYU player has been taken in the first round of the NFL Draft. Between that championship year in 1984 and the Heisman in 1990, 30% of WAC teams in the nine-team conference went bowling. Nevada tests Jeanty this week at Boise. Jeanty would the fourth player from a former WAC school to be a Heisman finalist since 2000.
Quick kicks
- Indiana (-13.5) is favored over Michigan, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, for the first time since 1968.
- Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti is the first non-Ohio State coach to start 9-0 at a Big Ten school. The others are Earle Bruce, Urban Meyer and Ryan Day.
- A warning for Kalen DeBoer: The last four Alabama coaches have lost their first meeting with LSU (Mike Dubose, Dennis Franchione, Mike Shula, Nick Saban).
- Georgia is visiting Ole Miss for the first time since 2016. The 31-point loss to the Rebels that day (45-14) remains the worst of Kirby Smart’s career.
- BYU is the first team since Notre Dame in 2002 to start 9-0 despite being an underdog in at least half its games.