The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has spoken, and the first top 25 rankings look awfully similar to our recent season-ending projection that includes four teams each from the Big Ten and SEC.
Sitting firmly on the bubble and outside the top 12 are several one-loss conference championship hopefuls, a momentum-building Group of Five unbeaten and a few multi-loss SEC teams — namely Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss — in play this weekend still vying for a spot among the nation’s best.
No two-loss team ever made the playoff in the previous era, but that will change with expansion. However, we don’t foresee any scenarios in which a three-loss team gets an at-large bid next month. One of those teams could get in by winning a Power Four conference, but that seems unlikely considering the bevy of quality contenders near the top of the standings in each league.
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For the eight teams on the playoff bubble, building strength of schedule and stacking quality wins are paramount over the remaining few weeks of the regular season.
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College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Week 11
SMU (+130): The ACC could still get two teams into the CFP this season if the Mustangs win out and beat Miami in Charlotte to take the conference’s automatic bid as champion. If SMU finishes 11-2 with a loss to Miami, it may need help on the outside looking in. The Mustangs still control their own destiny, however.
Ole Miss (+160): One of four two-loss SEC teams fighting for its playoff life, the Rebels host No. 3 Georgia in a pivotal game. Falling to the Bulldogs all but ends playoff hopes for Lane Kiffin’s team.
Iowa State (+210): The Cyclones do not have a win this season over a team currently ranked inside the top 25, which is part of the reason Iowa State was slotted 17th by the selection committee. The only Big 12 team ranked higher than the Cyclones is unbeaten BYU at No. 9. That shows how much respect — or lack thereof — the committee has for the conference.
LSU (+220): LSU’s Saturday night home showdown with Alabama garners the playoff elimination game label for good reason. The loser will be well outside of the top 15 in the committee’s next set of rankings. The Tigers have a chance to stay in the mix and maybe get on the other side of the bubble if they beat the Crimson Tide this weekend.
Texas A&M (+350): The Aggies fell into a multi-team tie atop the SEC standings after a 24-point loss at South Carolina in Week 10. Right now, Texas A&M is part of the ‘First Four Out’.
Kansas State (+650): The Wildcats are going to need help to win the Big 12, which is likely their only path to the playoff. At No. 19, Kansas State has one win over a ranked team (Colorado) and could get another against Iowa State in a few weeks. That would give Chris Klieman’s team a pair of valuable tiebreakers over the Buffaloes and Cyclones.
Pitt (+2000): The Panthers’ impressive season took an unfortunate turn during a 48-25 road loss to SMU last weekend — Pitt’s first setback of the season. Coupled with Clemson’s loss to Louisville, SMU and Miami are in the driver’s seat to reach the ACC title game. Even if the Panthers win out — which would include a victory over No. 19 Clemson — an 11-1 finish still puts them behind the Hurricanes and Mustangs in the ACC standings.
Don’t sleep on multiple Group of Five bids: Should No. 25 Army win out and beat Notre Dame later this month, there are a couple of scenarios in which the Black Knights (+1000) get in the playoff along with projected Mountain West champ Boise State. The No. 12 Broncos have a win over No. 20 Washington State on their resume.
About the expanded CFP
The second College Football Playoff Rankings from the selection committee will be released on Nov. 12, then every Tuesday night through Dec. 3 leading up to Selection Sunday (Dec. 8). The top-ranked team in the first CFP Rankings has gone on to win the national championship only twice since 2014, so unbeaten Oregon’s top billing is not necessarily good news for the Ducks.
In the first season of the 12-team playoff format, the four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1-4 and receive first-round byes in December. Remaining teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded 5-12 based on the selection committee’s opinion.
First-round games on campus start Dec. 20 with CFP quarterfinals at bowl sites beginning Dec. 31. The semifinals at the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl will be played Jan. 9 and 10. The national championship is set for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.