Cowboys vs. Eagles: Offseason decisions at running back magnified by how teams are performing on field

Last Sunday we saw Saquon Barkley spin past one defender and backwards hurdle over another in one play. A sequence that breathtaking could only be the result of someone mashing the buttons in Madden. 

We also saw Ezekiel Elliott, one of the greatest backs in Cowboys history, not travel with the team for disciplinary reasons after showing up late to meetings or missing them completely this season. 

That pretty much sums up how things are going for both ground games this year. The Eagles spent more money on Barkley ($26 million guaranteed) than the Cowboys spent on all free agents in 2024 (NFL-low $11.3 million guaranteed).

Finally, when it comes to running backs, you get what you pay for. The Eagles are 6-2 and have the second-best rushing offense in the NFL (174.8 rush yards per game) and Barkley is on pace for 1,966 rush yards, which would be an Eagles record and the most for a player in his first year with a team.

The Cowboys are off to a 3-5 start and have the second-worst rushing offense (82.0 rush yards per game) in football. The longest rush by a Cowboys running back this season is 15 yards by Rico Dowdle. Barkley has 12 rushes of 15+ yards this year.

Rushing ranks this season

The Cowboys “all-in” offseason is becoming a running joke now for good reason. They let Tony Pollard go and brought back Ezekiel Elliott but did nothing else of consequence at the position. Elliott is averaging career-lows in rush yards per game (21.3) and yards per rush (3.1). It’s his eighth straight season with a decline in rush yards per game, the longest streak in NFL history.

Last month Jerry Jones questioned whether Henry would be having a great year in Dallas but even if he was having a good year they could have won more games by now and be in a better position to survive four weeks without Dak Prescott.

Heck, they could have gone after a number of veteran running backs from maybe the greatest free agent running back class ever and been better than they are now.

The top six highest-paid free agent running backs this offseason are among the NFL’s top 17 rushing leaders this season. Their teams are a combined 30-20 and only one has a losing record (Titans with Pollard).

Highest-paid free agent RB this offseason

Henry and Barkley are both on pace for over 1,900 rush yards. The most by a player in his first season with a team is 1,853 by Ricky Williams for the 2002 Dolphins.

Typically history has sided with Dallas’ approach of not spending on running backs. But not this time. 

The 2024 free agent class is doubling up the production of the previous three free agent running back classes when looking at the top 10 highest-paid running backs per class.

Averages of Top 10 free agent running back contracts in last four seasons

History would also laugh at the Eagles giving Saquon Barkley $26 million guaranteed. Prior to 2023 when the state of the running back position was in complete disarray, the 20 largest contracts ever given out to veteran running backs mostly flopped. Few outproduced their rookie deals or played through the life of their second (or third) deals. Deals like Le’Veon Bell, Elliott and Todd Gurley completely backfired.

Average season of top 20 largest veteran running back contracts ever prior to 2023

The performance of this class (and recent veteran backs) flies in the face of modern NFL thinking that says you shouldn’t pay running backs, you can’t win with them, they don’t age well and you shouldn’t draft them high. 

Henry, who could be a Cowboy, can be the first running back ever to win a rushing triple crown in his thirties by leading the NFL in rush attempts, yards and touchdowns. He is aging like fine wine.

History has shaped the modern thinking at the position. We haven’t seen a 1,000-yard rusher win a Super Bowl in eight years (2016 LeGarrette Blount) or a rusher with a top-10 cap hit at the position win a title in 11 years (2013 Marshawn Lynch). The last player to win a rushing title and Super Bowl in the same year was Terrell Davis, 26 years ago in 1998.

Cap hit by leading rusher on Super Bowl champion – previous 10 years

Running backs correlate less to winning than any of the premium NFL positions in the last decade. Looking at the top-10 cap hits by position in the last 10 seasons, running backs have a record just above .500 and a playoff percentage of 37 percent, the lowest figures compared with edge rushers, quarterbacks, offensive tackles, wide receivers and cornerbacks.

That’s what makes this year such an outlier. The 2024 free agent class is producing and winning. 

Leaguewide numbers among top-10 cap hits by position in last 10 seasons

So if you’re watching the Eagles and Cowboys on Sunday, forget what you learned in the past about running back spending. Philadelphia could be on a Super Bowl quest in a matter of months with the Barkley signing being the biggest difference from last year’s collapse.

The Cowboys could be at home watching Henry flirt with his first Super Bowl trip after a 2,000-yard season. 

Surely Cowboys fans will be pounding their fists on the table next year to spend at the position or select someone high in the draft after potentially watching Barkley and Henry author two of the best running back seasons in recent memory, wondering what if.