We’ve reached the halfway point of the 2024 regular season. Of course, in a given year, there are bound to be things that surprise us. While the Chiefs and Bills sitting atop their respective divisions was largely expected by the NFL landscape, there have been other developments that have turned heads through the first nine weeks.
In particular, the emergence of the Washington Commanders as the top team in the NFC East, led by rookie sensation Jayden Daniels, wasn’t on a lot of folks’ bingo cards. Neither was the Pittsburgh Steelers jumping out to a 6-2 record even after switching from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson. All that is a brief lesson that highlights how quickly the NFL can turn.
In that spirit, we’re going to preview the second half of the regular season by concocting a handful of bold predictions for what we could see unfold down the stretch. For what it’s worth, we did this exercise for the entire season back in September and, so far, nailed a few predictions. We were ahead on the Raiders trading Davante Adams, along with the crystallization that Deshaun Watson’s deal is the worst in league history. We’ll also give ourselves half-credit for saying that rookie Spencer Rattler will unseat Derek Carr, albeit due to injury. That said, we’re going to be wrong saying Marvin Harrison Jr. will rewrite the rookie record book, and it seems unlikely Aaron Rodgers and the Jets will meet the Packers in Super Bowl LIX.
After all, these are supposed to be bold predictions, so we’re expected to swing and miss on a few.
In any event, let’s comb through what could prove to be a bonkers final nine weeks of the 2024 regular season if one (or more) of these predictions come to fruition.
Chiefs go undefeated with 17-0 record
The Kansas City Chiefs are the last undefeated team standing in the NFL, edging out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in overtime in Week 9 to move to 8-0. What’s remarkable about this unbeaten streak by the defending Super Bowl champs is that they haven’t been playing particularly well on offense. Statistically, Patrick Mahomes is off to one of the worst starts of his career, but they are winning anyway. And that’s what’s scary and why we have them running the table in the regular season.
At some point, the light is going to turn on, and there are signs that it already may be happening. Mahomes is gaining a rapport with newly acquired wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who adds a dynamic layer to the offense. In just their second game played together, the duo connected on two touchdowns. They appear to be just scratching the surface of their potential, and Travis Kelce is starting to flip the switch as well.
With the offense getting in stride to match a defense that has been stout throughout the first half of the year, they may be favored to win their remaining games. Possibly, their biggest test comes in Week 11 when they travel to Buffalo to face the Bills. If they leave Orchard Park with a win to move to 10-0, they then face the Panthers (road), Raiders (home), Chargers (home), and Browns (road) over the following month.
If they are undefeated at that juncture, they’ll be tested against the Houston Texans at home before visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas before wrapping up the season in Denver against the Broncos in what could be a monumental Week 18 game if they are still without a loss.
Oh, and Mahomes is 40-9 as a starter in November and December in his career.
Derrick Henry sets single-season rushing record
The NFL’s single-season rushing record is held by Eric Dickerson, who ran for 2,105 yards in 1984. Exactly 40 years later, that record will be surpassed by Derrick Henry. The Ravens back has been a man among boys during his first season in Baltimore and is within sniffing range of the record, but he’ll have to uptick his pace just a touch. Currently, Henry is on pace to finish the year with 1,987 yards rushing, leaving him 118 yards short of tying the record.
That said, Henry’s yards-per-attempt averages have historically increased as the season has gone on, which sets the stage for him to surpass Dickerson.
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September |
4.18 |
|
October |
4.83 |
|
November |
4.92 |
|
December |
5.11 |
| January | 5.89 |
Jaguars fire Doug Pederson
This is probably the least bold of the bunch, but it is remarkable how far the Jaguars have fallen this season. They stand at 2-7 and, in last place in the AFC South, and are in the middle of a rough patch in their schedule. Already, they’ve lost back-to-back games to the Packers and Eagles and now have a matchup against the Vikings before visiting the Lions in Week 11. If they can’t pull off an upset in at least one of those games — and it seems unlikely they will — they have a bye in Week 12 that could be the end of the rope for Pederson less than three full seasons into his tenure.
The Arizona Cardinals currently hold possession of first place in the NFC West, but not a ton of people are buying it. Even the betting markets don’t see Arizona as the favorites, with DraftKings Sportsbook giving the edge to the San Francisco 49ers at +130 while the Cardinals are +170. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams are +350, and the Seattle Seahawks are +1200 entering Week 10.
The Cardinals should be looked at with more of an edge than they currently are, however. At the moment, they have a game edge over the Rams and Niners in the win column and, more importantly, own the head-to-head tiebreaker against each of them thanks to wins earlier in the season. Even if the Cardinals lose to them down the stretch and nullifies the tiebreaker, they have the third-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, which should keep the rest of the division at arm’s length so long as they take care of their own business.
Coming into this season, all the hype surrounded Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers. Some — including myself — even wondered if one of those two could rival Puka Nacua’s record-shattering rookie season. While neither of those two look poised to do so this year, don’t sleep on Raiders rookie tight end Brock Bowers unseating Nacua in the record books. The Rams wideout set the rookie single-season record with 105 receptions last season. Bowers is currently on pace for 108. And that accounts for three games where the Raiders were also throwing to Davante Adams. As Bowers continues to become the centerpiece of the offense, his targets should only increase as the season goes along, putting this record by Nacua in the crosshairs.