There are many things we know as we enter the second half of the 2024 NFL season, including the Chiefs being all but guaranteed a spot in the playoffs as they look to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls. But there are many things that will be determined during the season’s second half, most importantly the postseason field in both conferences.
Of the NFL’s 32 teams, 21 still have legitimate playoff chances (sorry, Jets and Cowboys fans, your teams did not make the cut). A dozen teams in the NFC are still vying for the conference’s seven available playoff spots. In the AFC, there are nine teams that have a realistic shot at extending their season beyond Week 18.
Each playoff spot is virtually still up for grabs, and there are more than a half dozen teams that still have a chance at grabbing one of their conference’s respective playoff spots despite currently being on the outside looking in.
Below is a ranking of the five teams currently on the outside that have the best chance at making the playoffs. But before we get to our ranking, here’s a breakdown of the current playoff standings in each conference. The top seven teams in each conference will be in the playoffs when the postseason begins on Saturday, January 13.
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)
2. Buffalo Bills (7-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
4. Houston Texans (6-3)
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
7. Denver Broncos (5-4)
8. Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6)
10. New York Jets (3-6)
NFC
1. Detroit Lions (7-1)
2. Washington Commanders (7-2)
3. Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
4. Arizona Cardinals (5-4)
5. Minnesota Vikings (6-2)
6. Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)
7. Green Bay Packers (6-3)
8. Chicago Bears (4-4)
9. Los Angeles Rams (4-4)
10. San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
5. Bengals (4-6)
Cincinnati was a two-point conversion away on Thursday night from being 5-5 and on the cusp of playoff contention. But the officials chose not to penalize the Ravens for either defensive holding or illegal hands to the face of quarterback Joe Burrow on the two-point play that fell incomplete.
The Bengals are down, but they aren’t out just yet. Cincinnati has three consecutive games during the season’s second half against teams that have a combined record of 7-18. The Bengals have two upcoming games against the Steelers, a Week 17 showdown with Denver (5-4) and a game next Sunday night at the Chargers that is a must-win.
Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are the two biggest reasons why I haven’t given up on the Bengals’ playoff chances. The duo was unstoppable Thursday night against Baltimore, connecting 11 times for 264 yards and three touchdowns. The Bengals put 34 points on the board despite Tee Higgins‘ absence, having no true backup running back and starting left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. being inactive.
If the Bengals can get Higgins healthy, and if their defense can shore some things up, this team is capable of going on a run. But they are running out of time.
4. Colts (4-5)
Indianapolis’ season has been nothing short of bizarre. They lost their first two games and their two most recent games, but went 4-1 in between. The Colts made one of the season’s biggest moves so far when they replaced second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson with 39-year-old Joe Flacco.
Flacco led the Browns to a surprising playoff berth last year, so there’s certainly a possibility that he can lead the Colts on a similar run. But if that is going to happen, the Colts are going to have to get through a challenging three-week stretch that starts with this weekend’s game against the Bills and continues with a road game against the Jets and a home date with Detroit.
Things get easier after that, as the Colts end the season with four matchups in five games against teams with losing records. Expect Indianapolis to continue to try to chart out victories with Flacco, his trio of talented wideouts, and running back Jonathan Taylor, who recently returned from injury.
Tampa has lost three straight and is looking for answers. But the Bucs’ offense and light second-half schedule are two things that are still going for them.
The Buccaneers currently have the NFL’s fifth-ranked scoring offense, led by Baker Mayfield and his league-high 23 touchdown passes. Chris Godwin’s season-ending injury has significantly hindered the offense, though, so the Buccaneers finding a way to replace his production will be key to their second-half success.
Tampa Bay has a tough upcoming matchup with the 49ers before its Week 11 bye. After that, the Buccaneers have three consecutive “get right” games against the Giants (2-7), Panthers (2-7), and Raiders (2-7) that they need to take advantage of.
2. 49ers (4-4)
San Francisco is .500 despite dealing with a rash of injuries during the season’s first half. One of those injured players, running back Christian McCaffrey, returned to practice this week and is expected to make his season debut this weekend.
The 49ers have just three remaining games against teams with losing records. They’ll face two of those teams over the next two weekends with a road game this weekend against Tampa Bay (4-5) and a home date with division rival Seattle (4-5) in Week 11. The 49ers will then travel to Green Bay before hosting Josh Allen and the Bills. This sequence of games may determine the 49ers’ playoff fate.
The 49ers, who were off this past weekend, will need to improve in the red zone on both sides of the ball if they want to improve their playoff odds. The 49ers are currently just 28th and 22nd in the red zone in offensive and defensive red zone efficiency, respectively.
1. Rams (4-4)
Sean McVay’s team got the edge over the 49ers for a few reasons. One of them is that the Rams’ remaining schedule is easier with five upcoming games against teams that currently have losing records, including three of their next four. Los Angeles also defeated the 49ers in Week 3, which gives them another advantage before the two teams play again in San Francisco in Week 15.
The Rams appear to be hitting their stride after a 1-4 start. They’ve won three straight games and are getting outstanding play from quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Kyren Williams. A secret for the Rams’ recent success has been the play of their defensive backs, led by Jaylen McCollough, Kamren Kinchens, Quentin Lake and Kamren Curl.
Los Angeles should be even better moving forward with the return of wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua from injuries.