If you have plans on Sunday afternoon, you might want to cancel them, because the NFL will be giving us what should be one of the best regular-season games of the year when the Buffalo Bills host the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in a game that will be kicking off at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS, with The NFL Today crew broadcasting live from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., at noon ET.
With the Chiefs sitting at 9-0 and the Bills at 8-2, the game will be a rarity in NFL history: This will mark just the fifth time over the past 54 years that two teams with eight wins or more have played each other in Week 11 or before.
The good news for the Bills is that every other time it happened, the home team ended up winning. Here’s a look at the four prior games:
Week 11, 1977: Colts (9-1) at Broncos (9-1) — Denver wins 27-13
Week 11, 1978: Steelers (9-1) at Rams (8-2) — Los Angeles wins 10-7
Week 11, 2013: Chiefs (9-0) at Broncos (8-1) — Denver wins 27-17
Week 11, 2018: Chiefs (9-1) at Rams (9-1) — Los Angeles wins 54-51
As you can see, the Chiefs have already been involved in two of these games and they lost both of them. The game between the Rams and Chiefs in 2018 was one of the craziest ones in NFL history and it’s had a reverberating impact: There have been six Super Bowls since that game was played and all six Super Bowls have featured the Rams or the Chiefs.
As for the showdown on Sunday, the Chiefs are trying to become the 19th team in the Super Bowl era to start a season 10-0, but if they’re going to do that, they’re going to have to win as an underdog. As things currently stand, the Bills are favored by 2.5 points, which makes Kansas City just just the sixth undefeated team since 1970 to be underdog in Week 10 or later. The five previous teams went 1-4 straight-up.
Although the Chiefs are an underdog, it’s never smart to bet against Patrick Mahomes. The two-time MVP has been an underdog just 14 times in his career and he almost always wins: He’s 11-3 straight-up and 12-1-1 against the spread.
In those 14 games, Mahomes has averaged 281.9 passing yards while leading the Chiefs to an average of 32.2 points per game.
If the Bills come out on top, it will mark the fourth time that Josh Allen has beaten Mahomes, which would be the most ever by an opposing QB. Allen has beaten Mahomes three times, which is currently tied with Joe Burrow and Tom Brady for the most wins against the Chiefs quarterback.
Speaking of Brady, Mahomes-Allen is starting to turn into a rivalry that equals Brady vs. Peyton Manning. The game on Sunday will mark the eighth time that Mahomes and Allen have played each other over the past five seasons, which ties a record set by Brady and Manning for the most meetings in a five-year period by quarterbacks who aren’t in the same division. If the Chiefs and Bills meet again in the playoffs, Mahomes and Allen would set the record.
One reason this series has been so intriguing is because the games are almost always crazy and no one has been able to dominate. In the seven previous meetings between Allen and Mahomes, the Chiefs have gone 4-3 with all of Buffalo’s wins coming in the regular season.
It won’t be surprising at all if we get another instant classic on Sunday, which is why you’ll definitely want to be watching when the game kicks off on CBS.