Now that we are closing in on the end of the season, there will be big games every week, including some we may not have expected to be in advance.
The big game this week is No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia. That is now a College Football Playoff elimination game for the preseason No. 1 Bulldogs. A third loss on the season would realistically knock them out of both the conference title race and the College Football Playoff chase.
All of the top four teams in this week’s CFP Rankings are playing on the road. Those teams are still heavy betting favorites in those games.
The Little Game of the Week is No. 10 Alabama’s scrimmage with Mercer. Nothing good can come from that for the Crimson Tide. Most teams play games like this early in the season as a way to work on things before the rest of the season kicks in, but things are a little different in the South. Kentucky, South Carolina, Clemson and Florida State also have FCS opponents on the schedule in November. There are also a handful of nonconference games against FBS teams that are normally not thought of as a threat to pull off an upset.
Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.
I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. Now that we are into November, I have expanded the “Other CFP candidates” list to the CFP top 16, plus the highest ranked Group of Five team if not already in the top 16.
Odds via BetMGM. Use BetMGM promo to get in the game with all the Week 11 action.
Week 12 Picks
No. 4 Penn State (-28.5) at Purdue: Not going to overthink this. Purdue has played three teams in the current CFP top 10 and lost by a combined score of 146-7. Two of those games were at home. The Nittany Lions will have to work hard to not cover this number. Pick: Penn State -28.5
No. 1 Oregon at Wisconsin (+14): The Ducks have been dominant in Big Ten play this season. The only team to get within 21 points of them in conference play was Ohio State. Wisconsin has lost two straight, including a 32-point thrashing at Iowa last week. Pick Oregon -14
Nebraska at USC (-8.5): USC has not been great away from home, but the only team to beat the Trojans at home has been Penn State. There is a new offensive coordinator at Nebraska, though. Dana Holgorsen takes over after being hired as an analyst the week before. It would be asking a lot to make wholesale changes to the offense mid-season, but he will likely explore parts of the playbook that have not been used much. I still like USC to win, but Nebraska will hang around. Pick: Nebraska +8.5
Upset of the Week
No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia (-10): I do not have a win by Tennessee baked into my bowl projections, but the Volunteers have one of the better defenses in the SEC and this line feels too large. Ole Miss was able to rattle Georgia QB Carson Beck, and if Tennessee is going to take down the Bulldogs between the hedges, it will have to do the same. QB Nico Iamaleava should be ready to go for the Vols, and he will need to perform well. This figures to be a full 60-minute battle. Pick: Tennessee (+10)