Week 11 marks a historic moment for the NFL, especially among contending teams: For the first time ever, a regular-season slate will include three different games in which every team enters with at least seven wins. All three matchups — Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills — profile as potential playoff previews.
Which of the six mightiest clubs squaring off in Week 11 is best-positioned to go the distance? Here, we’re ranking all of them by projected win totals and Super Bowl chances, plus offering the biggest reasons to believe — or doubt — their shot at lifting the ultimate trophy.
Note: Projected win totals are courtesy of SportsLine, then rounded up or down to an even record. Super Bowl chances are also courtesy of SportsLine simulations.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 9-0 | Projected Wins: 14 | Super Bowl: 17.8%
- Reason to be skeptical: They’re winning almost exclusively on the margins. Which is a testament to their clutch composure, but still makes sustained success rather difficult. We’ve now gone basically two years since Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce were consistently explosive rather than scrappy.
- Reason to believe: It’s the Chiefs. While Mahomes and Co. may not be blowing teams out, they almost never fold when it matters most. It’s why no one is even remotely surprised they’re in the running for a three-peat. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense also remains tenacious.
2. Buffalo Bills
Record: 8-2 | Projected Wins: 13 | Super Bowl: 16.4%
- Reason to be skeptical: Josh Allen can play superhero, but for how long? While the Bills have actually enjoyed a fair amount of complementary football this year, they’re now nursing injuries across their remade skill group, including to newcomers Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman.
- Reason to believe: For all the hubbub about Allen losing his top two pass targets during the offseason, the offense has been humming at a reasonable rate. Sean McDermott’s defense also registers as a top-10 scoring unit. The talent does, in fact, appear to be present for a deep run.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Record: 7-3 | Projected Wins: 12 | Super Bowl: 13.7%
- Reason to be skeptical: Forget Lamar Jackson’s underwhelming track record in the playoffs. His defensive support has been almost completely lacking this year sans coordinator Mike Macdonald. Only five teams are giving up more yards, and only seven are surrendering more points.
- Reason to believe: Lamar Jackson. Playoff record aside, the reigning MVP is well on track to repeat as the NFL’s top-awarded playmaker, combining his signature rushing electricity with career-best aerial accuracy. Throw in the bruising Derrick Henry, and their offense is a machine.
4. Washington Commanders
Record: 7-3 | Projected Wins: 12 | Super Bowl: 6.5%
- Reason to be skeptical: Even with rookie Jayden Daniels‘ sterling debut, the Commanders have been fairly one-dimensional out wide, with Terry McLaurin serving as the only steady threat on the perimeter. Daniels has also yet to see the playoff stage, and Washington’s schedule has been quite favorable.
- Reason to believe: It’s hard to overstate Daniels’ magic, when he’s on his game. His dual-threat smoothness has instilled a confidence in this club not seen for years. Dan Quinn’s defense has also turned a corner, registering as borderline top 10 even with star acquisition Marshon Lattimore injured.
5. Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 7-2 | Projected Wins: 12 | Super Bowl: 4.2%
- Reason to be skeptical: Their five-game win streak has come mostly at the expense of battered, inferior opponents, allowing a once-derided pass rush to feast on replacement-level quarterbacks. Coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts have also shown some ill-timed decision-making.
- Reason to believe: Hurts and Sirianni have seemingly put the ugly offense of late 2023 and early 2024 behind them, feeding Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to the tune of four straight 28-point showings. That talent is nearly unmatched. And Vic Fangio’s defense has a legit physical edge.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 7-2 | Projected Wins: 11 | Super Bowl: 3.6%
- Reason to be skeptical: We’re only three games into Russell Wilson’s ride as the new QB1, and while he’s opened up the passing game, his downfield success has largely stemmed from a “chuck-it-and-pray” approach. His skill group, meanwhile, has proven to be quite boom-or-bust in the past.
- Reason to believe: Maligned as he may have been after an ugly Denver Broncos tenure, Wilson seems to have rediscovered his old play-action form, giving the Steelers a big-play punch they’ve lacked for years. Mike Tomlin’s defense also remains feisty as ever, especially up front.