When the second College Football Playoff Rankings were released on Tuesday evening, Georgia found itself in an unfamiliar spot: left out. The Bulldogs were No. 12, marking their lowest spot in the CFP Rankings since Kirby Smart’s first season in 2016.
As we’ve screamed from the mountain tops: It’s not about the top 12 teams. It’s about how they’re seeded. Yes, Georgia ranks No. 12, but it gets pushed out of the projected bracket by Group of Five champion Boise State, which ranks No. 13. As we wrote in our bracket explainer: The top 12 teams in the rankings will not make the field. The top 12 seeds will.
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This is a stunning mid-November development for the preseason AP No. 1 team — a program that has won two of the past three national championships, but one that was also the second team out of the 2023 CFP field.
Georgia’s résumé is one of the toughest to evaluate in the sport. A dominant win over No. 3 Texas is perhaps the best in the country. Going on a 27-3 run against No. 10 Alabama was impressive, as was a 34-3 obliteration of No. 20 Clemson. The lows include struggling against lowly Kentucky, giving up 31 points to Mississippi State, trailing against Florida before DJ Lagway got hurt and now getting crushed 28-10 against Ole Miss.
A central challenge of the CFP committee is figuring out how to weigh positive vs. negative data points. In the case of Notre Dame, for example, the committee has been forgiving of a loss to Northern Illinois thanks to some truly impressive victories. It’s reasonable to have a bad day. After a team gets to two negative data points, it becomes harder to make the case.
Some of this is just a consequence of the expanded SEC. Last season, for example, the Bulldogs played two teams that finished top 20 in the final CFP Rankings during the regular season. This year, the Dawgs are about to play their fourth when they host No. 7 Tennessee. Every team in the SEC has had lulls this season. Texas and Tennessee are the only one-loss teams left in the conference, and Georgia has the No. 1 strength of schedule in the nation.
With the schedule, though, the margin of error is far different and only emphasizes UGA’s weaknesses. Versus expectations, Georgia is underwhelming. The Bulldogs are 114th nationally against the spread, underperforming Vegas lines by 4.5 points per game and posting a 2-7 record ATS. In conference games, Georgia is underperforming the line by 8.1 points per game.
A major part of Georgia’s struggles this season come down to regression from quarterback Carson Beck. The senior leads the nation with 12 interceptions, the first SEC passer since Ole Miss’ Matt Corral to throw 12 picks in six games. The Bulldogs fell from No. 2 to 8 in total offense among SEC teams. The defense is still good, but dropped from No. 1 to 5 in the SEC.
Metrics like SP+ and FEI still rank Georgia highly, but even the numbers acknowledge that Georgia isn’t the same. FEI has the Bulldogs at No. 7, behind Penn State and narrowly ahead of Notre Dame. SP+ lists Georgia at No. 6, but the metric finds UGA closer to Miami than Ohio State.
It’s not just the results that are different, Georgia is different too.
There is good news for Georgia. The Bulldogs can solve almost all of their problems this weekend. UGA hosts No. 7 Tennessee at Sanford Stadium. There’s a chance that Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava won’t play, but it shouldn’t matter for Georgia’s purposes. Win that game (where it’s favored by 10 points) and it should be in.
After Tennessee, Georgia has only UMass and rival Georgia Tech. The Dawgs should be favored in both by double-digits and cruise to 10-2. In that scenario, Georgia has likely the second-best case of two-loss teams in the SEC, only behind Alabama’s head-to-head victory. With Texas as a projected SEC champion, that’d be enough to get Georgia in.
Over the past 15 years, Nick Saban’s Alabama set one of the highest floors in college football. Even in “down” seasons, the Tide were a top-five performing team in the country in advanced metrics. The expectation has long been that Smart will simply keep that machine going, but in Athens.
However, Georgia is facing a real-deal elimination game on Saturday against No. 7 Tennessee, and it’s deserved. If the Bulldogs pick up a third regular-season loss for the first time since 2016, Georgia could find itself in an unexpected place: outside of the first 12-team College Football Playoff.