Despite their epic collapse last season, when they lost five of their final six regular-season games after getting off to a 10-1 start and were embarrassed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round of the playoffs, the Philadelphia Eagles were predicted by many to win the NFC East title for the second time in three years.
Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders weren’t expected to have much success after posting a 4-13 record in 2023, which marked the seventh consecutive season in which they failed to finish above the .500 mark.
Philadelphia (7-2) split its first two games this campaign but has lived up to expectations since. The team has registered five straight wins following its bye in Week 5, outscoring its opponents 147-65 in the process.
The Eagles boast one of the NFL’s top receiving duos in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, both of whom amassed over 1,000 yards each of the last two seasons. However, the strength of Philadelphia’s offense in 2024 has been its rushing attack, which ranks second in the league with an average of 176.1 yards per contest.
The main reason for the club’s success on the ground has been Saquon Barkley, who signed a three-year, $37.75 million contract in March after spending the first six years of his NFL career with the division-rival New York Giants. Selected with the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the 27-year-old out of Penn State, who eclipsed the 1,000-yard plateau three times with New York, is second in the league this campaign with 991 rushing yards – 29 more than he gained in 14 games with the Giants last year.
Barkley also is tied for eighth in the NFL with six touchdown runs, matching his 2023 total. But he is second on the Eagles in that category, as quarterback Jalen Hurts has racked up 10 rushing TDs, marking the fourth consecutive season he has reached double figures. He enters Week 11 just two behind league leader Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens.
Philadelphia is sixth in the NFL in total offense (373.9 yards) and tied for seventh in scoring (25.9 points) after recording at least 20 points in every game during its current winning streak. The team has been particularly explosive over its last four contests, averaging 31.8 points.
The Eagles also have been strong on the other side of the ball this year. They are second in the league in total defense (274.1 yards allowed), third against the pass (173.4) and fifth against the run (100.7) while tying for fifth in points surrendered (17.9).
Even though it had one of the easiest schedules over the first 10 weeks, Washington arguably has been the biggest surprise of the 2024 NFL season. One of the reasons has been the performance of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was the second overall pick in this year’s draft.
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is currently the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. He is tied for eighth in the league with a completion rate of 68.7% and has thrown for 2,147 yards and nine touchdowns with only two interceptions.
Daniels has formed a strong connection with wideout Terry McLaurin, who is on his way to a fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. The 29-year-old Ohio State product is third in the NFL with 711 receiving yards and tied for fourth with six touchdown receptions.
The 23-year-old Daniels also has been dangerous with his legs. After rushing for 1,134 yards with LSU in 2023, he leads the Commanders in rushing with 464 yards – three more than Brian Robinson Jr., who shares eighth place in the league with six TD runs.
With Daniels under center, Washington ranks fourth in the NFL in total offense (377 yards) after finishing 24th (312.8) last season. The team also is fourth in rushing (153.5 yards) following a 27th-place effort (93.6) in 2023 and tied for third in scoring (29 points) compared to its 24th-place showing (19.4) last year.
Since the Dallas Cowboys dropped to 3-6 following their 34-6 home loss to Philadelphia last weekend and the Giants are floundering at 2-8, the Eagles and Commanders will battle it out for the NFC East title over the final eight weeks of the season. That stretch begins in Week 11 with a head-to-head showdown in Philadelphia on Thursday Night Football.
Both clubs are 2-0 in division play thus far, with Washington defeating New York twice and Philadelphia trouncing both the Giants and Cowboys. The Eagles have won five of their last six meetings with the Commanders franchise, including both last season.
Despite that recent history, and the fact it is one-half game behind Philadelphia after dropping a 28-27 decision to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, Washington enters Thursday’s contest with a 58.6% chance to win the NFC East compared to SportsLine Projection Model’s 41.4% outlook for the Eagles.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says both teams likely will qualify for the playoffs, with the Commanders doing so 98.6% of the time and Philadelphia in 95.9% of its simulations.
Thursday’s outcome will go a long way toward determining a division champion, according to the model. A victory would increase Washington’s chances to 80.2% and Philadelphia’s to 60.5%, while a loss drops the Commanders’ likelihood to 36.2% and the Eagles’ to 17.8%.
Both teams could be without a key offensive weapon, as Robinson missed last week’s contest with a hamstring injury and was a limited participant for Washington in Wednesday’s practice, while Smith did not practice for the Eagles due to a similar ailment.
All hope would not be lost with a defeat, however, as the rivals meet again in Washington in Week 16. While a series sweep would put the chances for the NFC East title at 95.5% for the Commanders and 96.5% for the Eagles, a split puts them at 59.8% and 40.1%, respectively. Losing both matchups would be crippling, however, as the model has Washington winning the crown 3.5% of the time and gives Philadelphia a 4.4% chance in that event.
The model is calling for a close contest between the Commanders and Eagles on Thursday Night Football. But it isn’t one of the five games with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the 11th week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 11 NFL picks at SportsLine.