Even if the Pittsburgh Steelers do nothing else this season, they will make NFL history.
On Sunday, the Steelers (7-2) will play their first AFC North game, against the rival Ravens. This Week 11 game marks the latest any team has played its first divisional game in league history.
Put another way: Six of Pittsburgh’s final eight games will come against AFC North opponents. In addition, the Steelers’ other two games come against two of the league’s best: the NFC East-leading Eagles (7-2) in Week 15 and the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs (9-0) in Week 17.
The takeaway: Though Pittsburgh has been one of the NFL’s biggest surprises this season and is riding a four-game winning streak, the Steelers’ season really begins now.
Entering Week 11, Pittsburgh leads the division by a half game over the Ravens (7-3). The Bengals (4-6) and Browns (2-7) round out the AFC North. But the Steelers have built their record beating up mostly on inferior teams. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, Pittsburgh’s average opponent power ranking so far this season is 46%, which is the equivalent of playing a team like the Jaguars every week. But for the rest of the season the Steelers’ average opponent rankings is 58%, which is like playing the Commanders every week.
“We’ve got no control over our schedule,” Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said on Tuesday. “Our goal is to beat everybody. But specifically week-to-week, we can singularly focus on this week’s opponent. And so I’d be making it up if I told you I cared about the schedule or when we face people. I don’t.”
So, given the upcoming eight-game gauntlet, will the Steelers’ season go boom or bust?
The projection model has crunched the numbers and says that Pittsburgh is most likely to go 4-4 down the stretch and finish 11-6. That scenario has a 28.9% chance of happening. The next most likely scenario is that the Steelers go 5-3 in their final eight games and finish 12-5.
Interestingly, despite the difficult strength of schedule remaining, the model says Pittsburgh has a better chance of winning all eight games and finishing 15-2 (0.33%) than losing all eight and ending the season 7-10 (0.27%).
| 15 | 0.33 |
| 14 | 2.82 |
| 13 | 10.94 |
| 12 | 22.59 |
| 11 | 28.91 |
| 10 | 21.86 |
| 9 | 9.68 |
| 8 | 2.60 |
| 7 | 0.27 |
The model also says the Steelers have a 34.4% chance to win the AFC North, but that possibility swings wildly depending on the outcome of Sunday’s game against Baltimore and reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. Pittsburgh’s chances to win the division improves to 59.2% with a win but falls to 15.6% with a loss.
As of Tuesday, Baltimore was a 3-point favorite in the latest Ravens vs. Steelers odds.
“It’s really cool to be in these games, not because it’s [the Ravens] but because they’re a good team,” Tomlin said Tuesday. He added, “We just want to continue to sharpen our sword for these battles, to find a way to prepare ourselves, put our best foot forward and find a way to win and search for more.”
The SportsLine Projection Model says one team covers in more than 50% of simulations in the Steelers and Ravens game on Sunday. However, that game isn’t one of the four with A-grade spread picks based on model simulations for Week 11. You can find those top-tier Week 11 NFL picks at SportsLine.