The sun is going down earlier and earlier, which means we’re running out of time in the regular season. Thanksgiving will be here before you know it, and after that, it’ll be championship weekend and the final College Football Playoff Rankings (the only ones you need to freak out about, even though so many of you freak out about the ones that don’t matter).
It also means we’re running out of time to right the ship, and I’d like to be back in the black by the time the random number generator we call bowl season arrives. We couldn’t build on the momentum of our 5-1 performance in Week 10, as we fell back to 2-4 in Week 11. Things could’ve been a lot different if Brendan Sorsby and Jackson Arnold understood how to better take care of the football, but I won’t blame them. They were my picks, and I take responsibility for being incorrect, even if it wasn’t my fault.
That’s just how noble I am. That said, I’ll happily be the most dastardly person on the planet if that’s what it takes to go 6-0 this week.
All college football betting odds below provided via FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM , DraftKings, Caesars.
Games of the Week
No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia: What do we make of these two? Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava left last week’s win over Mississippi State early due to injury, and Josh Heupel announced he was in the concussion protocol this week. But Heupel also announced that Iamaleava was practicing, which leads me to believe he’ll start. There are also questions about Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, but they’re not as much injury-related as vision-related. He can’t seem to tell the difference between his teammates and the opponent: he’s thrown 12 interceptions in the last six games, and that includes three different games with three apiece.
It’s not great!
Earlier this week, Beck blamed the team’s inability to run the ball for his turnovers because he’s trying to do too much. While Beck is correct that Georgia’s run game needs to improve, it’s not his running backs chucking the ball in a panic when they’re under pressure. It’s him, and Tennessee’s defense will pressure him again Saturday. That causes me to lean Tennessee’s direction slightly, but the Vols have problems, too. Their passing attack hasn’t been nearly as prolific as anticipated, and they’ve been extremely one-dimensional on offense. They’re also facing a defense that’s been very good at stopping that dimension all year. Plus, this is only Tennessee’s third road game of the season, and they scored a total of 39 points in the first two. I don’t love it, but the under feels like the most logical play here. I truly wish it was 49.5 instead of 48.5, but there’s only so much we can control. The Pick: Under 48.5 (-110) via Caesars Sportsbook
No. 23 Missouri at No. 21 South Carolina: Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz declared Missouri is still “in the playoff hunt” after the Tigers wild win — honestly, in a sport full of insanity, that was one of the craziest fourth quarters I can recall — over Oklahoma last week. I do not agree with Eli! It seems the oddsmakers don’t, either, considering a 6-3 South Carolina is nearly a two-touchdown betting favorite.
And it’s for good reason. Yes, the Gamecocks have three losses, but one was by three points against LSU when they lost starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers to injury for the second half. Another was a two-point loss at Alabama. There was also a blowout loss to Ole Miss that seems more understandable in retrospect. Compare that to Mizzou, which has only two losses, but they came by a combined score of 75-10 against Texas A&M and Alabama. Missouri has also flirted with close wins against Oklahoma, Auburn, Vanderbilt and Boston College. Meanwhile, Carolina blew out both Oklahoma and Vandy, as well as the A&M team that beat the Tigers by 31. Finally, this game is at South Carolina. Those two blowout losses Mizzou suffered? Both came on the road. I don’t know if they’ll get blown out here, but they might. The Pick: South Carolina -12.5 (-108) via DraftKings sportsbook
Lock of the Week
Utah at No. 17 Colorado: Last Saturday was Utah’s Super Bowl. It’s been a nightmare season for the Utes, and you could tell they put everything they had into their chance to upset rival BYU, end its undefeated dreams, and possibly the Cougars’ playoff hopes. And they blew it. They were so upset about it that even their athletic director made public comments about getting robbed by the officials and regretting the decision to join the Big 12. The Utes were Down Bad to the extreme. After that letdown, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be in great shape for this one. They can still get to a bowl game, but do they want to? The entire team is hurt, including third-string QB Brandon Rose (who started last week) was lost for the season in the BYU game. So it’s back to Isaac Wilson, who has struggled in the role all year. Meanwhile, Colorado has a simple mission: win every game from here on out and you’re a Big 12 champ and in the College Football playoff. The Buffs have the better team and the motivation. This one could get sideways in a hurry. The Pick: Colorado -11.5 (-106) via FanDuel sportsbook
Water Fowl of the Week
No. 1 Oregon at Wisconsin: This was nearly my lock of the week, as I don’t understand this line. Oregon has shown all season it’s superior to everybody in the Big Ten not named Ohio State. It is crushing teams, and while this game is at Wisconsin, the Badgers aren’t very good. Yes, Wisconsin had that three-game win streak, but the victories came against Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern. Those three are a combined 4-14 in Big Ten play. Wisconsin has lost to Alabama by 32, USC by 17, Penn State by 15 (at home and with Penn State missing Drew Allar in the second half) and Iowa by 32. I’m supposed to believe they’ll hang within two touchdowns of Oregon? I mean, I guess there’s a possibility Oregon will put it in cruise control in the second half, but they could be up 20-plus by halftime. The Pick: Oregon -14 (-110) via Fanatics sportsbook
Over of the Week
No. 22 LSU at Florida: Both these teams need something to feel good about. LSU’s playoff hopes died Saturday night in a 42-13 loss to Alabama, as did the dreams of Florida fans who hoped the Gators would fire Billy Napier. The Gators were crushed by Texas but did not have quarterback D.J. Lagway, who is expected to play in this game. Lagway is also a capable runner, and we have seen what running quarterbacks have done to this LSU defense. At the same time, Garrett Nussmeier and the Tigers offense should find success against this Gators defense. Both teams desperately need a win, and as long as it doesn’t get out of control early, I’m very confident we’ll cruise past total on sports betting apps. The Pick: Over 54.5 (-115) via FanDuel sportsbook
Disgusting Play of the Week
Liberty at UMass: You probably don’t pay much attention to UMass football, and that’s OK. There’s not a lot of reason to. So there’s no reason for you to know that UMass starting quarterback Taisun Phommachanh is out for the season after getting hurt in the team’s loss to Mississippi State two weeks ago. It’s awful news for Phommachanh, and it’s not great for the Minutemen, either. I mean, UMass is 2-7, and both its wins came against FCS programs. Its seven losses to FBS teams have come by an average of 20.6 points. How good do you think their backup QB can realistically be? The Liberty of 2024 is not the Liberty of 2023, but the Flames are good enough to cruise in this spot. The Pick: Liberty -14.5 (+100) via FanDuel sportsbook
|
Games of the Week |
1-1 |
11-11 |
-2.06 |
|
Lock of the Week |
0-1 |
6-5 |
+0.48 |
|
Overall |
2-4 |
33-33 |
-3.11 |