In the shadow of Levi’s Stadium on Sunday, with the game tied and with no time left on the clock, the football gods finally, finally, finally allowed 49ers kicker Jake Moody to have his moment.
After missing both of his two previous field goal attempts in the fourth quarter, Moody came through. He nailed a 44-yard field goal as time expired to give San Francisco a 23-20 over the Buccaneers, potentially saving the 49ers’ season.
Afterward, the mood in the San Francisco locker room leaned more toward relief than joy as star offensive lineman Trent Williams broke down the team huddle.
“This is just the beginning, man,” Williams told his teammates. “That’s the way to fight, but we’ve got a lot more fighting to go.”
Indeed, just nine months removed from being one fourth down stop away from winning the Super Bowl, the 49ers are fighting for their playoff lives. San Francisco (5-4) sits in second place in the NFC West, a half-game behind the division-leading Cardinals (6-4).
The battle for the division title is shaping up to be the last unknown in the NFC playoff picture. Though eight weeks still remain in the regular season, six teams already have strangleholds on a postseason spot. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, six teams in the NFC already have at least an 74% chance of reaching the playoffs: the Lions (99.9%), Commanders (98.6%), Eagles (95.9%), Falcons (88.7%), Vikings (83.9%) and Packers (74.9%).
The only question, according to the model, is which team wins the NFC West. Though the Cardinals lead the division, the model says San Francisco has a better chance to make the playoffs than Arizona, 58.5% to 52.7%.
| NFC TEAM | PLAYOFF % |
| Lions | 99.9 |
| Commanders | 98.4 |
| Eagles | 95.7 |
| Falcons | 88.6 |
| Vikings | 84.0 |
| Packers | 74.6 |
| 49ers | 58.5 |
| Cardinals | 52.7 |
| Buccaneers | 22.3 |
| Seahawks | 11.3 |
Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model, says that the NFC could have multiple pretenders make the playoffs.
“Arizona is only +18 in point differential (seventh best in NFC), and Atlanta is just +2,” he says. “Unlike in the AFC where every team is at a model top 12 team or better, the NFC could have multiple non-true contenders make the playoffs. Not only Arizona and Atlanta but also Minnesota if Sam Darnold keeps throwing multiple interceptions.”
As for the 49ers’ Week 11 game against the Seahawks, the SportsLine Projection Model has an A-grade spread pick, saying one team covers in well over 50% of simulations. The game is one of four with A-grade spread picks based on model simulations for Week 11. You can find those top-tier Week 11 NFL picks at SportsLine.