Some of the ways the Chiefs have won this year would suggest this start is fluky. Isaiah Likely’s toe being out of bounds in Week 1. The fourth-and-16 pass interference call in Week 2. Overtime in Week 9 and a walk-off blocked field goal last Sunday.
The Chiefs have the worst scoring margin (+58) of any 9-0 start in NFL history. They are playing a lot of close games and are not exactly lighting up the scoreboard. They rank 11th in points per game (24.3), while Patrick Mahomes has 12 touchdown passes and nine interceptions.
But they aren’t simply winning because of great defense and some timely plays in other facets down the stretch of games. They are much more on offense than what you see on paper and have evolved to the point where they are methodically marching up-and-down the field on teams unlike anything we’ve ever seen in modern NFL history. Call it a product of what defenses are doing to them over the years and some injuries on offense.
On a per-drive basis, this is the most grind-it-out unit we’ve ever seen.
- They are averaging the most time of possession per drive (3:22) by any team on record (data available back to 1991). Second on the list is the 2019 Ravens (3:18), who had one of the best rushing offenses of all-time.
- They are averaging the most plays per drive (6.8) on record (data available back to 2000).
- They are converting the most third and fourth downs per game (8.1) since the 2009 Dolphins
- They have the best conversion rate on third and fourth downs (55%) since the 2011 Saints
They also lead the NFL in plays per game (67.0), third-down conversion rate (52%) and time of possession (33:01) — the last of which is the best ever by an Andy Reid team.
Chiefs’ death-by-1,000-cuts offense this season
|
Plays per game |
67.0 |
1st |
|
Plays per drive |
6.8 |
1st |
|
Third-down conversion percentage |
52% |
1st |
|
Time of possession |
33:01 |
1st |
This is one reason the Chiefs “somehow” find ways to win time and time again. For their opponents, it’s death by a thousand cuts over 60 minutes (or more). They don’t beat themselves (second-fewest penalties and fourth-lowest rate of plays going for zero or negative yards) as they bleed the clock and jab their opponents to death down the field.
This is why the Chiefs were harder and harder to stop in last season’s Super Bowl as they wore out San Francisco’s defense late in the game. Mahomes had 59 rush yards after halftime and converted a third-and-1 and fourth-and-1 run in overtime as the 49ers looked gassed. He was the first player since the merger with 200-plus pass yards and 50-plus rush yards after halftime in a playoff game.
He’s also been the key ingredient in keeping the Chiefs’ drives alive this year. He’s averaging 8.0 yards per attempt on third down (6.8 on first or second) and has an NFL-best nine scrambles for first downs on third down in 2024. Nothing like a backbreaking Mahomes scramble on third-and-long.
Mahomes was at his best on “Monday Night Football” against the Buccaneers in Week 9, going 11-for-13 for three touchdowns on third down. Like the Super Bowl, Kansas City scored a touchdown on its first overtime possession to win that game. It finished that game with four touchdown drives of 10-plus plays, the most by any team in a game this year. And guess what, it showcased another weapon in that game who can move the chains: DeAndre Hopkins.
Kansas City’s offense is inevitable. If it was an athlete, it’d be Tim Duncan, “the Big Fundamental.” This isn’t the sexiest offense ever, but the consistency is masterful.
Add it all up, and the Chiefs rank first in the NFL in success rate this season (52%). That’s plays where they gain at least five yards on first or second down or convert on third or fourth down.
They have just 41 explosive plays this year (only the Browns and Raiders have fewer), but they’ve managed to adapt to what defenses are giving them and give it right back. You’re going to take away the home-run ball that made the Mahomes an MVP in 2018? You’re not going to blitz him, either? OK, they are going to hammer the ball between the tackles for three to four yards, mash screen plays and yards after the catch and then hit Travis Kelce on third down to keep moving the chains. Mahomes has the shortest average pass length in the NFL over the last two seasons (6.2 yards downfield).
Patrick Mahomes’ average pass length since 2018
|
2018 |
9.3 |
6th |
|
2019 |
8.6 |
10th |
|
2020 |
8.1 |
13th |
|
2021 |
7.1 |
24th |
|
2022 |
7.1 |
23rd |
|
2023 |
6.5 |
30th |
|
2024 |
5.8 |
34th |
It’s incredible to see how his numbers have taken a nosedive in the last two years to the point where he’s getting dropped in fantasy. Still, the Chiefs just continue to win.
Patrick Mahomes by the numbers
|
Win percentage |
.800 |
.760 |
|
Pass TD per game |
2.4 |
1.6 |
|
Pass yards per game |
303.0 |
255.6 |
|
Average pass length |
8.1 |
6.2 |
The Chiefs have the fewest drives in the NFL this season. The results of this style of play have meant close games, but with the best closer in the sport and one the league’s best defenses, they are going to continue to win these types of games.
Kansas City has now rattled off nine straight wins when trailing by seven-plus points, the longest streak in NFL history. That’s all occurred during its franchise-record 15-game win streak overall.
Mahomes has converted on 12 of 16 drives with a chance to tie or take the lead in the fourth quarter or overtime during this stretch. That’s a ridiculous 75% success rate, adding to the best conversion rate in NFL history for a career (55%).
You have to wonder how much credit is due to the Chiefs for wearing down their opponents throughout the game versus Mahomes just playing the GOAT card.
Either way, it’s working for Kansas City. And it’s one reason why I wouldn’t be surprised to see them become the first team to ever win three straight Super Bowls.
Don’t be mistaken. This isn’t the Chiefs’ most effective offense in the Mahomes era. They led the NFL in points per drive in three of his first five seasons as a starter. But it’s the formula that gives them the best chance to win right now taking everything into account — from the makeup of their team to the defensive blueprint out there.
The difference between their offense at the start of Mahomes’ career and now is like the tortoise and the hare. Right now, slow and steady gets the job done.
Chiefs NFL ranks since 2018
|
2018 |
1st |
9th |
2nd |
27th |
3rd |
|
2019 |
2nd |
8th |
22nd |
19th |
4th |
|
2020 |
4th |
1st |
2nd |
16th |
4th |
|
2021 |
1st |
1st |
11th |
7th |
1st |
|
2022 |
1st |
5th |
4th |
12th |
1st |
|
2023 |
10th |
7th |
18th |
14th |
10th |
|
2024 |
8th |
1st |
27th |
1st |
1st |
All around the NFL, defenses are daring offenses to beat them like this. They know most teams can’t methodically move down the field. They are bound to shoot themselves in the foot with a penalty, turnover, missed field goal or some kind of mistake. But clearly, the Chiefs are not most teams.
So, instead of being borderline disappointed that we aren’t seeing nearly as many fireworks from the Chiefs, appreciate that Kansas City’s offense is now a movie with a slow burn setting up for a climatic finish. That finish could be chasing perfection and a third straight Lombardi Trophy.
THE NFL TODAY will be live from Buffalo on Sunday. Fans can join the crew in Lot 6 at Highmark Stadium starting at noon ET on Nov. 17.