It’s insane we’re already in Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season. We’re hoofing through the regular season at breakneck speed and probably setting up for a pretty incredible playoff run, with several teams we know are good and a whooooooole lot of teams who might be terrible but might still be playoff teams as well when it’s all said and done.
We mentioned previously the last time we had such a murky layer of mediocrity around the back end of the bracket was 2006, when the last undefeated team — the Colts, with Peyton Manning — won the Super Bowl. It feels familiar to this year with what the Chiefs are doing, and no one should be surprised if/when we end up with a reasonably chalky matchup in New Orleans (think Chiefs/Lions or something similar).
But Sunday also features (on CBS) the best matchup of the whole season with the Bills hosting the Chiefs. This isn’t the Super Bowl. No regular-season game is. But it might as well be a playoff matchup, because the winner is most likely to score the No. 1 seed in the AFC, therefore securing a bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
And while we’ve seen Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid go on the road and win, obviously asking them to return to Buffalo for an AFC title game makes life much more difficult than ripping off a pair of games in Arrowhead.
It’s unfair to call anything “the Brady vs. Manning of this generation” because those two might be the two best quarterbacks in the history of football, if you’re willing to slice the stats a certain way and have a legitimate discussion about greatness. But Josh Allen vs. Mahomes is pretty darn close to being just that. I’ll confidentially call Mahomes “a top-five quarterback of all time” right now, assuming he isn’t retiring anytime soon, given his stats and awards and Super Bowls under his belt already.
Allen isn’t on Manning’s level, but he is a perfect foil for the Patriots-esque dynasty being built in Kansas City. Like Manning with Brady and the Pats, Allen’s career can’t be discussed without mentioning the presence of Mahomes and the Chiefs. You could argue Allen might have a couple Super Bowls or a couple MVPs or a couple of both if weren’t for Mahomes existing.
Will Allen end up being a Charles Barkley to Michael Jordan’s 90s Bulls teams? Or will the Bills eventually break through and steal one from Mahomes like Manning did twice against the Patriots? They forced them to come to Indy in 2006 and it helped the Colts do just that.
I don’t want to overstate how important Sunday afternoon’s matchup is, but if it determines home field in the playoffs, it might very well shift the paradigm for viewing Allen and Mahomes when their careers are over.
THE NFL TODAY will be live from Buffalo on Sunday. Fans can join the crew in Lot 6 at Highmark Stadium starting at noon ET on Nov. 17.
Week 11 best bets
Bills ML (-130)
I’m backing Allen and Sean McDermott to get it done against Kansas City this week. The playoffs might be another story, but the Bills have had a lot of success against the Chiefs … in the regular season. Allen is 3-1 against Mahomes before the postseason rolls around in his career. And unlike in previous years, you can argue the Bills are the better team anyway. Buffalo’s been more dominant for most of the season, even though Kansas City has the better record. They’re a weird level of undefeated, probably the “worst” (I’d prefer “least impressive”) undefeated team since the Chiefs of 2013, when Alex Smith came to town. This version of K.C. is different because we saw the Chiefs do something similar last year, which is also very much like the Patriots. Stack wins, figure out who your team is throughout the regular season, then turn it on during the playoffs offensively. Adding DeAndre Hopkins is a huge benefit too, with Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown already being out for the year. But the Bills have enough firepower to overcome this defense and find a way to win the game on Sunday.
Bet on the Bills vs. the Chiefs at Ceasar’s Sportsbook
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model revealed its Week 11 NFL score predictions. Check out every exact score prediction for the upcoming games, including what is expected from the AFC showdown between the unbeaten Chiefs and the Bills.
Rams/Dolphins ML parlay (-106)
The Dolphins took care of the Rams on Monday night, winning a massive game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Both teams are on a short week here, but I’m going to back them each to take care of very winnable games. The Dolphins return home to play the Raiders, who will be trotting out Gardner Minshew in a spot where you can expect Miami’s defense to once again perform at a high level and potentially shift the game/field in a way that impacts the final score. At relatively full health now, the offense should could against Antonio Pierce’s defense, even with the Raiders off the bye. The Rams simply can’t lose this game in New England. It’s not a freebie, with the Patriots getting frisky again the last two weeks, but at 4-5 the Rams want to stay alive in the NFC West race as well as the wild-card battle. I think they’ll show up in a much better way offensively against the Pats and find a way to snuff out Drake Maye and Co. with pressure on defense.
Bet a Rams/Dolphins moneyline parlay at Fantatics Sportsbook
Jonathan Taylor over 86.5 rush yards (-110)
The Jets find themselves in their eighth straight must-win game, having lost most of them over the last month plus. October was an unmitigated disaster for New York and people are asking Aaron Rodgers if should bother coming back for next year already. The Jets defense isn’t nearly as good as it was when we thought they were a quarterback away and they’re still a quarterback away. I think the Jets offense probably shows up for this game, but I also expect the Colts running game to travel. Jonathan Taylor should run wild with Anthony Richardson back in the fold, presumably with some designed runs built in. I like Taylor’s anytime TD number (-105) as well but am a little worried Richardson could vulture scores for a team willing to throw out the kitchen sink in his return to save their playoff hopes.
Bet on Jonathan Taylor props at Bet MGM Sportsbook
Jalen Hurts anytime TD (-105)
Once again, Jalen Hurts isn’t being priced properly for a guy who is getting all the goal line work for Philly. Saquon Barkley should have a solid if not elite day against the Commanders and I wouldn’t be shocked if he scores. But he has a knack for being tackled inside the 5-yard line this year (perhaps a bit unlucky in that regard) and Nick Sirianni has a knack for dialing up the ‘tush push’ when the Eagles get to the goal line. It’s been highly effective this season and in particular the last month. Hurts has EIGHT rushing touchdowns in his last four games and I think at this price I’ll keep playing it, especially when there are multiple paths to him scoring a rushing TD or getting the rock on the goal line.
Bet Jalen Hurts touchdown props at DraftKings Sportsbook
Drake London under 5.5 receptions (-130)
This is a Patrick Surtain II bet, not a Drake London fade. Regardless, I think the expectation for this matchup between two playoff contenders — and a sneaky interesting game on a loaded slate — should be that the offense funnels through Bijan Robinson and Darnell Mooney, a thing I actually typed in the Year of our Lord, 2024. Denver’s defense has been elite so far this season and Sean Payton hates the Falcons as much as anyone, so I expect maximum effort from a surprising Broncos squad. I also expect Surtain to spend all day with London, forcing Kirk Cousins to look in another direction and keeping his receptions and yardage total at a minimum.