It’s Week 11 in the 2024 NFL season, but a better way to put it might be: It’s Bills-Chiefs Week.
For years, these two AFC contenders have fought to keep pace with one another. And while only one side, Kansas City, has gone the distance (repeatedly), Buffalo has been a consistent threat, knocking off Patrick Mahomes and Co. in three of their last five head-to-head meetings, including playoffs.
Now, it’s time for them to meet again. CBS Sports has planned special coverage of the upcoming rematch, with “The NFL Today” set to broadcast live from Buffalo, inside the Highmark Stadium parking lot, ahead of kickoff. Fans can join the crew in Lot 6 at Highmark Stadium starting at Noon ET on Nov. 17. But all eyes will surely turn to Mahomes and Josh Allen — the matchup’s heralded quarterbacks — once the players take the field for a potential postseason preview.
In the meantime, we’ve turned our own eyes to the quarterbacks, studying the tape and the numbers to break down which signal-caller — Allen or Mahomes — has the edge in Week 11:
The overview: Allen vs. Mahomes
|
Josh Allen |
8-2 |
17 |
4 |
63.5 | 7.6 |
100.2 |
261 | 4 |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
9-0 |
12 |
9 |
69.5 | 7.1 |
90.3 |
167 | 1 |
Both star quarterbacks have endured a fair amount of skill-weapon turnover this year — Allen due to an offseason makeover of the wide receiver corps, and Mahomes due to a rash of in-season injuries, including to starters like Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. Accordingly, both have strained at times to push the ball down the field; Allen has had a few clunkers, failing to hit a 60% completion rate or eclipse 200 passing yards in four games, while Mahomes threw at least one interception in each of his first seven.
Muddying things further is the fact that, on the surface, their production has basically been a wash: Allen has the superior numbers, with eight more touchdowns and a superior passer rating, whereas Mahomes is the shepherd of the NFL’s only perfect record. So what can these numbers — and other advanced statistics — tell us in addition to the eye test? What lies beneath the surface? Let’s proceed.
Note: Advanced statistics referenced below are courtesy of NFL Pro.
Accuracy
Mahomes began his career as a fireworks show, storming the NFL with one bomb after another. He’s become much more of a methodical operator the last two seasons, and it shows in his 2024 numbers: He’s hitting a career-high 69.5% of his throws, and his targets have an average separation of 4.2 yards, compared to 3.6 for Allen. Mahomes is also throwing into tight windows just 6.8% of the time — the lowest mark of his career. In other words, he’s taking what’s given more than forcing it downfield.
Edge: Mahomes
Ball control
Mahomes has certainly not been a safekeeper of the football since the start of 2023, racking up 23 picks in 25 games. He also outnumbers Allen in total 2024 giveaways, nine to six. But historically, Allen has been more loose with the ball, edging Mahomes in total turnovers (47 to 38) since the start of 2022. It’s part of what makes him so dangerous, for better and worse: a willingness to zip the ball deep or across the field at any given time. It’s shown up recently, as he’s thrown four picks in his last three games alone.
Edge: Mahomes
Big-play magic
This is where, historically, both quarterbacks have thrived. But Allen has clearly superseded Mahomes when it comes to highlight-reel heroics in recent years. Since 2023, no quarterback has more total scores (65) than the Bills‘ gunslinger. And Allen, unlike Mahomes, still routinely tries to hit the home run, almost tripling the Chiefs quarterback’s career-low deep-throw rate (4.5%) this season. This despite working with an almost entirely remade receiving group headlined by a rookie in Keon Coleman.
Edge: Allen
Rushing impact
The plain numbers bear this one out pretty clearly: Allen offers more on the ground, taking off more than twice as often as Mahomes. He’s a bulldozer in the open field. This doesn’t mean Mahomes is a non-factor with his legs; in fact, his own numbers are a bit deceptive, not fully accounting for his knack for killer late-game scrambles. But Allen’s athleticism has also paid off in and around the pocket, where he’s taken 13 sacks to Mahomes’ 20 despite facing more pressure this season.
Edge: Allen
Situational poise
Here’s where it gets interesting. Both quarterbacks feast on the blitz: Mahomes has a 102.7 rating against an extra rusher versus an 86.4 mark otherwise, while Allen is even better, posting a 128.4 rating under extra heat. And yet they’ve functioned very differently depending on the scoreboard this year. Allen’s best numbers have come when leading (7 TDs, 2 INTs, 108.0 rating), whereas Mahomes’ best work has come while trailing (8 TDs, 3 INTs, 100.1 rating). The latter remains the king of crunch time.
Edge: Mahomes
Home vs. road splits
Away from Arrowhead Stadium, the reigning Super Bowl MVP has been more sluggish, averaging just 6.6 yards per throw with an 81.6 rating. Allen’s also endured a dip in production on the road, but he’s been even better than Mahomes when operating on his own turf, hitting 8.4 yards per attempt and a 121.2 rating at Highmark Stadium. The fact this game comes in Buffalo bodes well for him there.
Edge: Allen
Head-to-head history
You wouldn’t believe how similar these quarterbacks are in terms of career production: They’ve played almost exactly the same number of games (104 for Allen, plus 10 playoff games; 105 for Mahomes, plus 18) and scored almost exactly the same number of touchdowns (Mahomes 244, Allen 241). Their face-to-face matchups have really just come down to the magnitude of the stage: Allen is 3-1 against Mahomes in the regular season, while Mahomes is 3-0 in the playoffs. That’s good news for Buffalo here.
Edge: Allen, for this game
The final verdict
The tally from our seven categories is as follows:
- Josh Allen (4)
- Patrick Mahomes (3)
In summary, it’s pretty safe to say Allen is having the more productive start to 2024, largely exhibiting his trademark playmaking for a top-three scoring offense, whereas Mahomes is resigned to play the role of late-game point guard for a more defensively oriented contender. The latter’s ability to stay composed in close games almost always saddles his evaluation with a favorable asterisk, however, ala Tom Brady with the New England Patriots. So if you want to bet on Allen, this is probably the time do it. Even with a banged-up setup, he’s proven capable of uplifting his group, especially at home. But if you’re looking even farther down the road, perhaps to a possible playoff rematch, well, all bets are off.