For those believing in the idea of “SEC bias,” you might want to turn away. There’s a chance the SEC puts five teams in the College Football Playoff this season after Georgia’s win over Tennessee created a probable 5-way tie breaking scenario at the end of the month. Texas and Texas A&M are the only teams who control their own destiny in hopes of getting to the league championship game and there’s four others behind them — Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss — currently with two SEC losses.
The Longhorns and Aggies play in two weeks during rivalry weekend with a spot in Atlanta on the line as long as Texas beats Kentucky and Texas A&M handles Auburn in Week 13. The big question for the selection committee is this — with Ohio State-Indiana pending and Penn State likely finishing 11-1, would they put a fifth 10-win SEC team in the playoff over a one-loss Nittany Lions or Hoosiers?
This is where one of these rabid fanbases could be irate on Selection Sunday next month. It’s imperative that Indiana — since the Hoosiers haven’t beaten a ranked team this season and will not have an advantageous strength of schedule — play well against the Buckeyes. A blowout loss would likely be enough for the selection committee to second-guess the 11-1 record in favor of another at-large SEC selection. Right now I have Tennessee as the odd team out on the bubble, but rest assured Volunteers fans are rooting for a bloodbath of an Ohio State win on Saturday.
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Our projections differ slightly from the sports betting markets ahead of Tuesday night’s third College Football Playoff top 25 rankings reveal. Ohio State is the favorite at +320 to win the CFP title at Caesars Sportsbook. Other top contenders include Oregon +420 and Texas at +500, according to latest odds at Caesars. When you register at Caesars Sportsbook today, you can earn a welcome bonus that unlocks up to a $1,000 first bet back as a bonus bet. Use the promo code ‘CBS1000’ to claim this offer.
Projected byes in College Football Playoff
1. Ohio State
Big Ten champion
Given Ohio State’s rise in national championship odds, we’re putting the Buckeyes as the projected top seed this week if they’re able to beat Indiana, Michigan and unblemished Oregon over the next three weeks.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +320
2. Texas
SEC champion
Texas and Alabama will meet in the SEC Championship if both teams win out and common opponents on the Crimson Tide’s schedule that have also played Ole Miss, Tennessee and Georgia also take care of business. The tiebreaker scenarios are a bit confusing in the SEC since the Longhorns and Texas A&M are the only teams with a clear path to Atlanta at the moment.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +500
3. Miami
ACC champion
Miami’s goal of reaching the ACC Championship was nearly clinched by Pitt, but the Panthers could not hold on to a late lead in Saturday’s loss to Clemson. The Hurricanes currently hold the one-loss tiebreaker over Clemson since they beat Louisville and the Tigers did not this season. The ‘Canes have a tricky trip to Syracuse in two weeks.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +3500
4. Boise State
Group of Five champion
The Broncos remain in the four spot after handling San Jose State on the road behind another 159-yard, three-touchdown showing from Ashton Jeanty. As long as Boise State wins out as Mountain West champions, it should be the highest-ranked Group of Five champion.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +7500
Projected CFP first-round games
Friday, Dec. 21 and Saturday, Dec. 22
5. Oregon vs. No. 12 Colorado (in Eugene)
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State
About the Ducks: For the first time since beating Ohio State in September, Oregon takes a back seat to the Buckeyes in this projected Big Ten Championship lookahead and gets the second seed with its first loss of the season in Indianapolis. Oregon was nearly clipped on Saturday night by Wisconsin. It’s looked a little shaky recently.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +420
About the Buffaloes: Two more wins and Colorado will be playing for a conference championship to close Deion Sanders’ second season, which would be a dream scenario for the suits tracking the ratings.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +4500
6. Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Alabama (in South Bend)
Winner plays No. 3 Miami
About the Crimson Tide: The only way a three-loss SEC team reaches the playoff is if the selection committee decides not to dock the conference title game’s runner-up for losing during the final weekend. That could be the scenario for Alabama, if the Crimson Tide battle Texas in Atlanta and fall.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +750
About the Fighting Irish: Notre Dame is quietly ascending in every playoff ranking, doing so by winning and the teams ahead of Marcus Freeman’s group faltering. It’s going to happen again this week following BYU’s upset loss at home to Kansas.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1800
7. Indiana vs. No. 10 Georgia (in Bloomington)
Winner plays No. 2 Texas
About the Hoosiers: Curt Cignetti wants an unbeaten regular season during this record-setting year at Indiana and he’ll get the opportunity if the Hoosiers beat Ohio State next week. Hate to say it since Indiana’s been a great story, but the Hoosiers need to show they’re competitive against Ohio State this weekend. Indiana has not beat a ranked team on its path to 10-0. The committee needs to see it’ll hold up well against the best of the best. The Buckeyes are 10.5-point favorites, so Vegas expects a close game.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +2300
About the Bulldogs: Georgia’s win over Tennessee was a table-setter of sorts for the Bulldogs. That’s a top 10 victory on top of the one they already have over Texas, which should paint a salivating picture for the selection committee in the at-large conversation.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +500
8. Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Penn State (in Oxford)
Winner plays No. 1 Ohio State
About the Nittany Lions: Keep an eye on where Penn State is ranked in Tuesday’s third playoff poll. It’s vital the Nittany Lions hover around where they’ve been in two previous iterations. Like Indiana, an 11-1 finish without a berth in the Big Ten title game is the most likely scenario.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1800
About the Rebels: Where will the selection committee put Ole Miss if Lane Kiffin’s squad is one of a handful of teams with 10 wins from the SEC? It’s a guess at this point, but the recent home victory over Georgia should be helpful.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1100
College Football Playoff quarterfinals are at the following bowl sites this year: Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the SEC champion in the quarterfinals, so second-seeded Texas would be playing in New Orleans while the Rose Bowl welcomes the Big Ten champion to Pasadena.
MORE: How the committee will select the inaugural 12-team field