It is exceedingly rare for a regular-season game in November to qualify for must-watch status in the NBA, but Tuesday features one of the most exciting pre-Christmas matchups in recent history. Hosting Tuesday’s festivities, we have the defending champion Boston Celtics. They have thus far been just as good as advertised. Through 14 games they are on pace to match last season’s win total of 64, and their net rating of plus-10.2 is just a shade below last year’s historic plus-11.7 figure that came with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis. In a normal season, Boston’s repeat dominance might be the story of the fall. But it isn’t a normal season, because Thanksgiving is around the corner and the Cavaliers haven’t lost yet.
At 15-0, the Cavaliers have tied the 1993-94 Houston Rockets and 1948-49 Washington Capitols for the second-best start in NBA history. A win gives Cleveland sole control of second place and officially starts Warriors Watch as the Cavaliers attempt to chase Golden State’s record of 24-0.
That alone should represent pretty significant stakes. There’s plenty more to consider here. For starters, this is an NBA Cup game, and after Boston lost its opener to Atlanta, Cleveland has a chance to functionally knock the Celtics out of contention for a mid-December trip to Vegas. A Boston win puts the Celtics in control of their group thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker with Cleveland. Speaking of tiebreakers, we have to at least acknowledge regular-season seeding where two teams this good are concerned. A Cleveland win gives the Cavaliers a four-game lead in the loss column over Boston and an early head-to-head victory that could prove meaningful. With two of their three remaining contests at home, Cleveland could take a huge step towards securing home-court advantage in a possible playoff series against Boston with a win on Monday.
So what are we waiting for? Here’s how you can tune into Tuesday’s heavyweight clash and some best bets to consider before tipoff.
Where to watch Celtics vs. Cavaliers
Time: 7 p.m. ET | Date: Tuesday, Nov. 19
Location: TD Garden — Boston
TV channel: TNT | Live stream: Max
Cavaliers vs. Celtics best bets
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I don’t necessarily believe Cleveland extends the streak against Boston on Tuesday, but I want the 5.5-point cushion that comes with a Cavaliers pick. Three of Boston’s last four wins have been by six points or less, and while they ran away with the fourth in the second half (139-114 over the Nets), the Celtics led that game by only five at halftime. The Celtics have been better on the road than at home this season, and their plus-5.6 home net rating ranks only 12th in the NBA as of this writing. Cleveland, meanwhile, has a plus-10.1 net rating on the road. Lastly, Cleveland has played Boston as well as any team in the NBA over the last few years. All three of last year’s games were determined by single digits, and Cleveland has won four of the seven regular-season games they’ve played against Joe Mazzulla-coached Celtics teams. All in all, this game just figures to be close. In that scenario, the points are the wiser pick. The Pick: Cavaliers +5.5
Here’s the simple reason to expect a high-scoring game: the Cavaliers have the NBA’s No. 1 ranked offense at 122.1 points per 100 possessions and the Celtics have the NBA’s No. 2 ranked offense at 121.4 points per 100 possessions. The Celtics don’t play with much pace, but Cleveland does, and the Cavaliers notably rank fifth in pace off of made shots. If the Celtics are scoring, the Cavaliers are going to try to create transition looks off of their made shots. That pushes the point total. The Celtics don’t need to play at a fast pace to play in high-scoring games though because of their shot diet. They’re taking 51.1 3’s per game, nearly six more than any other team. Boston will be incentivized to fire away from deep in this game, because while Cleveland’s rim-protecting duo of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley is available, Cleveland’s wing rotation is fairly thin at the moment. Dean Wade and Max Strus remain injured. Isaac Okoro, Caris LeVert and Sam Merrill are game-time decisions. Obviously Merrill and LeVert are offense-first players, but more broadly, you never want to dig that deep onto a bench when you’re playing against Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday. The signs here therefore point to offense. The Pick: Over 235.5
Cleveland may not have its full complement of wings available defensively, but historically speaking, its best wing defender against Boston has been Evan Mobley. In five playoff games a season ago, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined to shoot 17-of-43 (39.5%) from the field with Mobley as their primary defender, according to NBA.com tracking data. Where Cleveland will really feel the pain of their limited wing depth is in defending Derrick White, who is averaging just under 19 points per game this season and has quietly absorbed a chunk of the aging Jrue Holiday’s ball-handling duties this season. If Boston sees either Darius Garland or Donovan Mitchell defending White, they are going to run White-Tatum pick-and-rolls knowing Boston can’t switch it and give Tatum mismatches. Bottom line: White should be at the center of what Boston does offensively in this game. The Pick: Derrick White Over 16.5 Points
