With the NFL season heading into Week 12, the playoff race is heating up.
If you’re a fan of a team that currently has a losing record, don’t give up on the season just yet, because plenty of teams have made the playoffs despite having a losing record heading into Week 12. As a matter of fact, since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams in 2020, 10 teams with a record of .500 or below heading into Week 12 ended up making the playoffs.
Here’s a look at the breakdown on that:
2020: 1 (Commanders)
2021: 3 (Raiders, Eagles, 49ers)
2022: 3 (Jaguars, Chargers, Buccaneers)
2023: 3 (Rams, Buccaneers, Packers)
Does any team that’s currently .500 or below have a chance of getting into the postseason this year? Let’s get to this week’s playoff projections and find out.
These projections are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh plugs some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulates the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we then project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.
With that in mind, let’s get to the projections heading into Week 12.
AFC playoff projection
Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Colts (21.5%), Bengals (14.5%), Dolphins (13.4%), Jaguars (0.6%), Jets (0.4%), Titans (0.3%), Patriots (0.2%), Browns (0.1%), Raiders (0.0%)
Note: The Raiders aren’t eliminated from playoff contention, but their chances are listed at zero because the computer has given up on them.
NFC playoff projection
Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): 49ers (32.1%), Buccaneers (28.2%), Seahawks (26.8%), Rams (10.2%), Saints (7.1%), Bears (0.7%), Panthers (0.3%), Cowboys (0.1%), Giants (0.0%)
Wild-card round projection
AFC
(7) Broncos at (2) Bills
(6) Ravens at (3) Steelers
(5) Chargers at (4) Texans
Bye: Chiefs
NFC
(7) Packers at (2) Eagles
(6) Commanders at (3) Cardinals
(5) Vikings at (4) Falcons
Bye: Lions
