Week 11 in the NFL was eventful to say the least. The New Orleans Saints scored their second straight victory after firing coach Dennis Allen, Anthony Richardson returned to the lineup and led the Indianapolis Colts to a win over Aaron Rodgers‘ New York Jets, the Chicago Bears had a potential game-winning field goal blocked by the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks upset the San Francisco 49ers.
Then there was that Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills matchup, which lived up to the hype. Perhaps the game of the day, however, was the Sunday night finale between Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. That back-and-forth affair had everyone glued to their screens before J.K. Dobbins‘ 29-yard touchdown run secured a 34-27 victory for the Los Angeles Chargers. You have to feel bad for the Cincinnati Bengals. Nothing is going their way.
This week, I want to dive into the NFC South race — which has all of a sudden become interesting — and rank some coaching jobs which are either available, or expected to become available.
1. Is the NFC South race more interesting than we think?
Just a few weeks ago, I thought the NFC South race was wrapped up. I congratulated the Atlanta Falcons, who were going to win the worst division in the NFL by default. You would think a Kirk Cousins-led team that features Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts would be worth a playoff spot, but they have now dropped two straight games in ugly fashion. The first loss came to a Saints squad that had previously lost seven in a row, and then Atlanta was run off the field in Denver this past Sunday, 38-6. We even got to see Michael Penix Jr. come in and finish the blowout.
The Falcons still hold a two-game lead in the division at 6-5, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4-6 and the Saints are surprisingly right there at 4-7. Maybe the NFL world wrote them off after the Allen firing, but they are technically right there.
Here’s what you have to consider: The Falcons have a tougher remaining schedule than the Saints or Buccaneers — especially the Bucs. Tankathon says Tampa Bay has the second-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. The lone opponent the Bucs will play with a winning record is the Chargers. Atlanta, on the other hand, still has to play the Chargers, Minnesota Vikings and Jayden Daniels‘ Washington Commanders.
Can the Bucs make up three games over the final seven? Here’s what SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh’s simulations say:
|
Falcons |
72.2% |
74.0% |
3.7% |
|
Buccaneers |
22.2% |
28.2% |
2.1% |
|
Saints |
5.4% |
7.1% |
0.4% |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
These numbers surprised me a bit. The Buccaneers take on Tommy DeVito’s New York Giants this week, while the Falcons rest on their bye. Tampa Bay could move to 5-6 on Sunday. Up next for the Bucs are the Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders, so the Bucs could potentially be 7-6 entering Week 15. The Falcons will play the Chargers and Vikings when they return to action following their bye. They could potentially be 6-7 entering Week 15.
BetMGM Sportsbook has the Falcons as -500 favorites to win NFC South, while the Buccaneers are listed at +400. There may be some value there.
2. Which potentially available coaching jobs are the most attractive?
Most expected the Jacksonville Jaguars to fire coach Doug Pederson, following the 52-6 loss to the Detroit Lions, but it hasn’t happened yet. Still, it got me thinking. What will be the most attractive coaching gig available this offseason? Who will win the Ben Johnson/Bill Belichick sweepstakes? Or maybe you’re a Mike Vrabel kind of guy.
I don’t want to “pre-fire” anyone, but I think it’s safe to say Pederson returning in 2025 would be a surprise. The same goes for Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) and Matt Eberflus (Bears). So, here are my rankings of the most attractive coaching jobs this offseason:
5. New Orleans Saints: Many of the Saints’ key contributors are older, and then you have the quarterback question. Derek Carr is under contract through 2026, but maybe there’s a potential out in his deal this upcoming offseason. But then, there’s the salary issue. The Saints are already $62.8 million over the projected 2025 cap number. New Orleans does reside in the easiest division in the NFL, but the Saints may be looking at a sizable rebuild.
4. New York Jets: I thought the Jets could have the No. 1 defense in the NFL this season, but they have struggled despite having numerous pieces in place such as Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. Then there’s the Aaron Rodgers situation. He wants to continue to play, but hasn’t looked like the elite quarterback he was in Green Bay. New York can’t even part ways with him if it wanted to because of his contract. But it’s not like the Jets are looking to kick Rodgers out. Odds are he will have influence on who the new coach will be after the Jets find a new GM.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars have their young quarterback under contract, which is a plus. But Trevor Lawrence clearly hasn’t lived up to that massive extension, and his last two seasons have been derailed by injuries. Jacksonville has about double the cap space as the Jets heading into next year, and could have the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Hopefully Belichick let’s Travis Hunter play on both sides of the ball.
2. Dallas Cowboys: Whether they are playing well or performing poorly, being the coach of the Dallas Cowboys is probably the premier job in the NFL. From the facilities to the global attention you receive, there’s not another franchise that really compares. Plus, you have your QB1 and WR1 already in place, and Micah Parsons is likely the next to get paid.
1. Chicago Bears: I think the Bears job could be the best available in the NFL this offseason. Entering 2024, many were making the argument that no rookie No. 1 overall pick quarterback had ever had a more favorable situation than the one Chicago presented. The front office has worked hard to build up the defense, and then added plenty of weaponry on offense with Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift. It’s clear that Caleb Williams has potential. Imagine being the offensive-minded leader to bring this franchise back to prominence.
