No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Indiana is the first game of the expanded College Football Playoff era that carries critical seeding implications. What, no one told you? Hate to burst your tailgate, but the result doesn’t matter Saturday in Columbus. No matter the outcome, both teams will likely be slotted somewhere in the 12-team field because they’ve both been that good this season.
Unless …
- Ohio State blows out the Hoosiers, planting seeds of doubt about Indiana from Columbus, Ohio, to the committee room in Irving, Texas. The Buckeyes winning by a sizable margin would justify those who slam the Hoosiers’ strength of schedule to this point.
- Indiana wins as a 13-point underdog and this story becomes bigger and better. That result would create the possibility of a de facto home game for the Hoosiers in the Big Ten Championship Game.
One of those would be cool beyond belief with the Indiana campus 56 miles away from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The other? Shame on yourself for doubting Indiana’s credentials no matter the result on Saturday.
In a perfect world, that outcome shouldn’t matter. Indiana has done enough. After Ohio State, the only risk in a regular-season finale against hapless Purdue is a turned ankle or two.
The other possibility — Indiana not getting in — is likely to plunge the CFP into what arguably could be the biggest controversy of its 11-year existence.
You can see it coming. SEC Network being the SEC Network, there is a point of view that a wounded, conquered 11-1 Indiana wouldn’t be worthy of inclusion in the bracket — especially when there are SEC teams in the wings just waiting to be rewarded/screwed (more on that below).
So that possibility brings the discussion down to a tawdry street level where we have to ask: What’s the magic number that Indiana has to stay within that doesn’t trigger Finebaum Nation?
As mentioned, the Buckeyes are favored by 13 points, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Start the discussion there. The most entertaining part of Saturday may be watching the Hoosiers achieve a back door cover with a minute to play.
We were led to believe that an expanded CFP would create a bushel of “meaningless” games if teams had done enough at this point. Actually, this contest being for CFP seeding is best for everyone. Best for Indiana, which preserves a magical season even with a loss. Best for Ohio State, as it continues its Absolution Tour trying to wash out the stink of three straight losses to the Defending Champion Up North.
Best for the CFP itself. You better believe it doesn’t want to deal with the feel-good story of the season being relegated to the Citrus Bowl (Big Ten’s best bowl outside the CFP) because of the never-ending discussion about schedule strength.
When exactly did 10-0 in the Big Ten become a Conference USA schedule? Before the season, no one was calling out an Indiana schedule that included Ohio State and Michigan.
It’s not Curt Cignetti’s fault Michigan has dipped. The Hoosiers have backed it up by beating everyone by an average of 30 points. The 1983 12-1 Nebraska team that lost to Miami in the Orange Bowl averaged 33 points.
The blame is on conference realignment itself. The moment commissioners decided to expand and eliminate divisions, something like this was bound to happen. In an 18-team Big Ten, each team “misses” almost half of potential conference opponents. In the 16-team SEC, that number is almost the same.
You can already imagine an Indiana team that loses by four touchdowns Saturday being jumped by a three-loss Georgia that loses the SEC Championship Game. It’s easy to predict that sort of SEC drumbeat.
Complicating things, the Strength Everywhere Conference may be right. It probably is the best league again with the toughest road. But, to date, the CFP Selection Committee has thought otherwise. Four of the top five in this week’s CFP Rankings hail from the Big Ten.
We’re supposed to believe the committee doesn’t consider conference affiliation. I questioned that concept earlier this season.
So buckle up. If this game indeed does turn out to be for seeding, then bring us more of these, please.
That would be ideal, painless and just; we know the CFP landscape can turn ugly in a hurry.
Week 13 storylines
Some more Ohio State-Indiana perspective: Just to hammer home the gravity of what an Indiana upset would mean.
“I’ve known about Ohio State football since I was a freshman here in 1949. This is the darkest day in Ohio State football since I have been associated with it.” — Former Ohio State coach Earle Bruce in the AP’s account of Indiana’s 31-10 upset in 1987 that broke a 31-game Indiana winless streak.
“I’m very upset. In this tradition at Ohio State, Indiana doesn’t beat you.” — Former Buckeyes running back James Bryant on the same subject.
Yeah, an upset would be monumental. Ohio State leads the series 80-12-5
SEC’s stretch run in the CFP race: The SEC is six deep for potential CFP bids with No. 3 Texas, No. 15 Texas A&M, No. 11 Tennessee, No. 10 Georgia, No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 7 Alabama in the mix. It’s hard to imagine it getting any more than four in the bracket.
However …
Texas has played one of the other five (Georgia) and lost at home by 15. Texas A&M will play only one of the other five (Texas on Nov. 30). Georgia has played one of the toughest schedules in the country having already beaten Texas and Tennessee but losing to Ole Miss and Alabama. ‘Bama beat Georgia and lost to Vanderbilt. Ole Miss beat Georgia but lost to mediocre Kentucky and LSU.
Get ready for a spit storm because an SEC team — or two — that could legitimately win a national championship is going to be left out of the bracket.
Brett Yormark’s Happy Time Big Fun Conference: The Big 12 is a wonderful, delicious mess. Four teams still have a shot at the conference title and a CFP berth.
- No. 21 Arizona State (8-2, 5-1) can clinch a Big 12 title game berth with wins over BYU on Saturday and Arizona on Nov. 30 … unless Colorado and Iowa State also win out and BYU loses its final game to Houston. The BYU game is the biggest in Tempe in 10 years when Arizona State somehow outlasted Notre Dame 53-51. The Sun Devils injected themselves into the race this week with an upset at Kansas State.
- No. 14 BYU (9-1, 6-1) controls its own destiny with wins over Arizona State and Houston.
- No. 16 Colorado (8-2, 6-1) controls its destiny by beating Kansas and Oklahoma State.
- Don’t forget No. 22 Iowa State (8-2, 5-2). The Cyclones need wins over Utah and Kansas State and a loss by Colorado and BYU in the closing two weeks.
In order, those teams were picked 16th (Arizona State), 13th (BYU), 11th (Colorado) and 6th (Iowa State) in the preseason media poll, respectively.
Checking in on the Mountain West: While the world sweats Boise State‘s chances at a first-round bye, consider the No. 12 Broncos must first win at Wyoming on Saturday and beat Oregon State next week to stay alive in the playoff race. Anything less and Boise likely slips to the LA Bowl (MWC’s top bowl). We prefer to highlight Colorado State this week, winners of five in a row and one of only eight FBS teams undefeated in conference play. With a UNLV loss to San Jose State on Friday and a CSU win at Fresno on Saturday, the Rams are in.
Elsewhere in the MWC …
- Boise clinches a MWC title game spot by beating Wyoming on Saturday or a UNLV loss to San Jose State.
- No. 24 UNLV — ranked this week in the CFP for the first time — has the toughest road. It needs to win out against San Jose State and Nevada, while Colorado State also has to lose twice.
The point here is that this could be on the sidelines somewhere in the CFP.
The Battle Of Los Angeles: This game is always important, just like the Iron Bowl, Holy War, etc. Yes, they’re rivals, but both programs are in a state of flux that will be exacerbated (or not) based on the result of this game. In his third season, Lincoln Riley’s Trojans are now tied for 11th (3-5) in the Big Ten. We’re intrigued by the progress of quarterback Jayden Maiava, a native Hawaiian and USC‘s first signal-caller of Polynesian heritage.
The unbeaten: By Saturday night, there is likely to be only one undefeated team with one week left in the regular season. That would be No. 1 Oregon, which is enjoying a bye while Army plays Notre Dame and aforementioned Indiana goes to Ohio State.
Speaking of Notre Dame vs. Army … This one was great in 1958, which is the last time the Black Knights beat the Fighting Irish. It’s still great today at Yankee Stadium in a game between teams with the nation’s longest (Army, 14) and fourth-longest (Notre Dame, 8) winning streaks.
Jim Mora Watch: This isn’t in terms of job security but in terms of job possibilities. The UConn coach took one of the worst jobs in America and somehow has squeezed out seven wins at UConn (7-3). Win out against Syracuse and UMass and the Huskies will have won nine games for only the second time since 2001. Mora, 63 and 46-30 previously in six years at UCLA, deserves another Power Four shot.
The end of the Dairy Raid: Offensive coordinator Phil Longo was a scapegoat at Wisconsin this week. It was a curious switch by coach Luke Fickell to install more Air Raid concepts to begin with, but it was his switch. Given the support and weapons, Longo is a proven strategist. You can trace Wisconsin’s offensive struggles this season back to the injury Miami transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke suffered. But someone has to take the blame. Longo will surface quickly in the offseason at another Power Four job. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (at Nebraska) is 91st nationally in total offense and third-worst in the Big Ten. If the Huskers don’t win this one and get to a bowl for the first time since 2016, they deserve to have to have an agonizing wait until next Friday against Iowa to go for win No. 6.
Turning 18: Eighteen teams in the Power Four have won at least eight games. All 18 are still in contention for conference titles. Five of those teams haven’t won a league title since at least 1998 — Ole Miss, 1963; Tennessee, 1998; Texas A&M, 1998; Indiana, 1967; Iowa State, 1912.
Misguided, untrue, fake news, uninformed, mean-spirited quote of the year: “They went out and bought them a football team.”
Those words were spoken by former Auburn, Texas Tech and Cincinnati coach Tommy Tuberville in regards to Indiana. Oh, Tubs is also a U.S. senator who apparently doesn’t realize Ohio State is on record as having bought them a football team for $20 million.
And I thought I knew the guy.