Two teams sitting in comfortable positions in the AFC playoff race with their eyes still on division titles wrap up Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season as the Baltimore Ravens visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football. The matchup also marks the third head-to-head meeting between head coaches John and Jim Harbaugh, who respectively guide the Ravens and Chargers.
Baltimore (7-4) came out of the gate slow this year, losing its first two games, but then won seven of eight games before dropping an 18-16 decision to the AFC North-rival Pittsburgh Steelers on the road last weekend. With the setback, the Ravens sit 1 ½ games behind Pittsburgh (8-2) in the division standings.
After being named NFL MVP for the second time in his career in 2023, Lamar Jackson is on pace for his best statistical season this year. The 27-year-old quarterback ranks second in the league in both passing yards (2,876) and touchdown tosses (25), already exceeding his total from last season in the latter category (24).
Jackson recorded personal bests of 3,678 yards last campaign and 36 TD passes in 2019, his first MVP season.
Another key reason for Baltimore’s success in 2024 has been the play of Derrick Henry, who signed a two-year contract in March after spending the first eight years of his career with the Tennessee Titans. A two-time NFL rushing leader, Henry is first in the league with 1,185 yards, 13 scoring runs and 15 total touchdowns.
Thanks to Jackson and Henry, the Ravens lead the NFL in total offense (430.1 yards), are second in both rushing (177.3) and scoring (30.4 points) and rank third in passing (252.8 yards). Second-year wideout Zay Flowers also has been a major producer, as he is fifth in the league with 727 receiving yards.
Baltimore scored at least 20 points in each of its first 10 games this season before being held under that number by Pittsburgh last weekend. The team could have difficulty getting on the board again on Sunday against a Chargers defense that leads the NFL with an average of 14.5 points allowed per contest.
Los Angeles (7-3) is riding a four-game winning streak after posting a 34-27 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11. The Chargers are two games behind the Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) in the AFC West, as the two-time defending Super Bowl champions had their hopes for an undefeated season dashed with their 30-21 road loss to the Buffalo Bills last weekend.
Following a four-game stretch during which it scored 15 points or fewer on three occasions, Los Angeles has racked up at least 26 in each of its last four outings. It also held opponents under 18 points in six consecutive contests before its high-scoring showdown with the Bengals.
Justin Herbert hasn’t exactly been lighting it up this season, as he is 17th in the league with 2,186 passing yards and tied for 12th with 13 touchdown tosses. However, the 26-year-old has thrown just one interception this year, with that coming in a 26-3 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Week 2.
Deemed expendable by the Ravens after Henry joined the club, J.K. Dobbins inked a one-year deal with Los Angeles and has excelled. A second-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Dobbins ran for 805 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie but was limited to nine games over his next three seasons with Baltimore due to injuries.
The 25-year-old began his tenure with the Chargers with a pair of 130-yard performances and is 10th in the league with 726 rushing yards. Dobbins is tied for sixth with eight TD runs, recording a pair in two of his last three contests.
The Harbaugh brothers have not squared off since finishing the 2012 season with a meeting in Super Bowl XLVII, where John’s Ravens defeated Jim’s San Francisco 49ers 34-31 to capture the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Two years older than his 60-year-old sibling, John also guided Baltimore past San Francisco 16-6 in Week 12 of the 2011 season in their first matchup.
John Harbaugh will be hoping his team’s defense comes up with a strong performance against the Chargers. The Ravens are second in the NFL against the run (77.5 yards allowed) but rank 23rd in points allowed (24.6), 26th in total defense (362 yards) and last against the pass (284.5).
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, both Baltimore and Los Angeles are virtual locks to make the playoffs. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says the Ravens qualify 99.9% of the time in its simulations, while the Chargers have a 98.8% outlook.
Baltimore’s current chances of reaching the Super Bowl are at 17.6% and winning it at 10.8%, while Los Angeles’ prospects are 6.7% and 3.3%, respectively.
With a victory on Monday night, the Ravens’ chances of representing the AFC in New Orleans in February increase to 19.4%, while the simulations have them capturing their third championship 12.1% of the time. A loss to the Chargers would drop those numbers to 16.1% and 6%.
Should Los Angeles post its fifth straight triumph, its chances of making the second Super Bowl appearance in franchise history rise to 7.8% and winning the title elevate to 3.5%. The model says their prospects fall to 5.9% and 2.8% with a loss to Baltimore.
The Ravens have a 30.2% chance to overtake the Steelers for the AFC North title, which would benefit them in their quest for a championship – but only if they manage to earn one of the top two seeds in the conference. According to the model, Baltimore wins the Super Bowl 27.2% of the time as the No. 1 seed and 16.3% of the time as the No. 2.
If the Ravens finish anywhere from third to sixth in the AFC, the difference in their chances of winning the championship only descend from 12.2% to 10%. The model says their outlook for a Super Bowl victory is at 8.5% if seeded seventh in the conference.
Baltimore has a slight 8-6 advantage in its all-time regular-season series with the Chargers but has won each of the last four meetings. The model is calling for a close contest between the Ravens and Chargers on Monday night, but it isn’t one of the three games with A-grade picks based on simulations for the 12th week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 12 NFL picks at SportsLine.
