An 8-6 betting week for us, including a 3-2 ATS week on our top five picks. Jameis Winston failed me yet again, but the Houston Texans blowing out the Dallas Cowboys felt like the lock of the century. Fading the Tennessee Titans has also been lucrative this year. They are now 1-9 ATS!
This week in the NFL, Caleb Williams faces his second-ever divisional opponent, we get a Dan Quinn revenge game in Dallas plus the “Harbaugh Bowl.” If you haven’t yet, take advantage of a sign-up bonus for new users with this BetMGM promo code so you can make money, too. Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All NFL sports betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Top-five picks ATS record: 23-26-1
Overall ATS record: 75-88-3
Straight up record: 102-64
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Russell Wilson is 4-0 SU and ATS as the Steelers quarterback, even if he didn’t throw a single touchdown against the worst pass defense in the NFL last week. Throwing for touchdowns won’t really matter on Thursday night, because the weather in Cleveland is supposed to be terrible. That benefits the Steelers more than it does the Browns.
The Browns have the fourth-worst rushing offense in the NFL (88.5 yards per game), and Nick Chubb hasn’t crossed 52 rushing yards in any of his four games played this season. Now, he is going to have to carry the load behind a banged-up offensive line that lost Dawand Jones last week. Give me the Steelers to cover in a low-scoring affair.
The pick: Steelers -3.5
Projected score: Steelers 16-10
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
It’s one of the best rivalries in the NFL, even if the Washington team has changed its name a few times. This is actually the first matchup in series history where the Cowboys enter the contest three games under .500, while the Commanders are three games over .500. It’s a Dan Quinn revenge game, and I would bet the Cowboys miss him. Dallas ranked top five in scoring defense last year (18.5), but ranks second-worst this season (29.3 points per game).
I still believe Jayden Daniels‘ rib issue is bothering him, but this Washington team is so much better than Dallas right now. Since Dak Prescott went down with his season-ending injury, the Cowboys have been outscored 68-16. If you still aren’t convinced to lay the big number, keep in mind that teams are 5-0 ATS as 10.5-plus point favorites this year.
The pick: Commanders -10.5
Projected score: Commanders 27-13
Will Jayden Daniels rush for a touchdown this week? Bet his props at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Blindly betting against the Titans has been a great strategy this year. They are the first team to start 1-9 ATS since the 2007 Baltimore Ravens, and are on pace for the worst ATS record since at least 1970. Will Levis has shown improvement over the past couple weeks, but this team kills itself with penalties (some controversial, yes).
Honestly, this bet is more about backing the Texans than it is fading the Titans. Houston may be ready to take off now that Nico Collins is back. The Texans are 5-1 when Collins is in the lineup catching passes, and 2-3 when he’s not. Furthermore, C.J. Stroud is almost a different quarterback at home than he is on the road. He averages 87.8 more passing yards per game in Houston than away from H-Town, which is the LARGEST difference in home and road passing yards per game in NFL history.
The pick: Texans -8
Projected score: Texans 26-17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
How about this Bo Nix guy? He leads all rookies in passing touchdowns (14) and total touchdowns (19) this season. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye have combined for 19 total touchdowns!
Last week against the terrible Atlanta Falcons defense, Nix became the first rookie ever to complete 80% of his passes while throwing for 300 yards and four touchdowns in a game. Speaking of bad defenses, the Raiders rank last in takeaways (5) and turnover margin (-15). They also allow 28.5 points per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL. The Broncos dropped 34 points on the Raiders in a 16-point win earlier this season, so I’ll look to score an easy W with the 5.5-point number this week. Nix is actually 4-0 ATS when favored this year.
The pick: Broncos -6
Projected score: Broncos 24-17
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
The 49ers are snapping a streak of 37 straight games as favorites, which is the fourth-longest streak by any team since 1970. It’s warranted, as the 49ers are 5-5 despite being favored in every game this year. Against the Seattle Seahawks last week, Brock Purdy’s unit scored 17 points, racked up a grand total of 277 yards and averaged 4.9 yards per play. All of those numbers ranked worst or tied for worst in a game for the 49ers this season.
I don’t have any mind-blowing facts to support my pick for this game, but the 49ers have to get something going right now. SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh’s simulations say the 49ers have just a 32.1% chance to make the playoffs. They need this win.
The pick: 49ers +2
Projected score: 49ers 24-23