There’s been a lot of talk about resumes lately, and fans across the country are going over them like forensic scientists on the search for any bit of damning evidence to suggest a team doesn’t belong in the College Football Invitational — or otherwise known as the College Football Playoff — conversation. It inspired me to review The Six Pack’s resume for the season — and folks, it’s not good.
We went 2-4 again last week, so we’ve responded to our 5-1 performance a couple of weeks ago with a 4-8 mark, and we’re in the hole. We’re also running out of time to improve our resume, but we’re not giving up the fight.
After all, we’re still only one perfect week away from being back in black. Let’s keep our eyes on the prize, take it one game at a time and any other coaching cliche you think can help.
All college football betting odds below provided via FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM , DraftKings, Caesars.
Games of the Week
No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State: Life is about timing, and timing is here to kick me in the face. The Six Pack needs to rally, so of course the weekend’s biggest game also features a bunch of wild cards for which we don’t have an answer yet. If you missed the news, Ohio State lost its starting center for the season during practice this week. The Buckeyes also lost their starting left tackle for the year about a month ago. Their offensive line has been shuffled around a lot already, and more movement is required this weekend. It’s never great to suffer injuries up front, but it’s worse on short notice against a team whose defensive line has been as disruptive as Indiana’s.
The problem for Indiana is how much do we trust the Hoosiers offense here? We can all argue for years about Indiana’s overall SOS and how it should impact their at-large case, but what we can’t debate is that it’s been a relatively easy schedule to this point. The best defense the Hoosiers have faced all season was the Michigan team they beat two weeks ago, which was also their worst offensive performance of the year. The Hoosiers averaged only 1.67 points per possession against Michigan, and their previous worst was 2.18 against Washington. They averaged -0.13 EPA per snap in the game, which was worse than their -0.04 average in that same Washington game. Ohio State’s defense is far better than either of those teams, and both those games were at home. Now Indiana’s on the road, and it’s hard to trust the Hoosiers to put up a bunch of points here.
At the same time, it’s hard to trust Ohio State will do the same, which makes either side of the spread iffy. The only logical bet in this spot looks like the under. The Pick: Under 51.5 (-106) via Fanduel Sportsbook
No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State: BYU’s ranking by the selection committee makes little sense when you compare its resume to other one-loss teams ranked ahead of it like Miami, Boise State and SMU — an argument I was more than happy to point out earlier this week. However, that point does not impact how I feel about the Cougars as a team nor how they match up this week against Arizona State. The Cougars deserve to be ranked higher, but after this week, it could all be a moot point. Arizona State’s flown under the radar most of the season, but it’s a team I took notice of early after wins against Mississippi State and Texas State.
The Sun Devils beating up Kansas State last week wasn’t a huge surprise to anybody who has paid close attention, and they’re deservedly favored this weekend. Running back Cam Skattebo is the focal point of the offense; he’s an angry bowling ball of a human being who wears teams down, but he’s not the only bright spot of this Sun Devils offense. Sam Leavitt has played very well at QB, and all apologies to BYU’s Jake Retzlaff, who has had a good season, but Leavitt is the best QB in this game. I think the Sun Devils win and put themselves in the driver’s seat for a Big 12 Championship Game appearance. The Pick: Arizona State -3 (-110) via DraftKings Sportsbook
Lock of the Week
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 19 Army: A month ago, I made Notre Dame our Lock of the Week when the Irish took on Navy because even though the Midshipmen were undefeated, they hadn’t seen anything like Notre Dame to that point in the season. The Irish won 51-14. This week, it’s essentially the same story. Army is 10-0, and while a great story this season, the Knights haven’t seen a team in the same stratosphere as the Fighting Irish. It’s simply a case of these teams having very different kinds of athletes. Now, I don’t think this will be a 37-point win for the Irish because I doubt Army turns the ball over six times as Navy did, but unless Notre Dame shoots itself in the foot repeatedly, I don’t see how Army can hang around for four quarters. The Pick: Notre Dame -14.5 (-110) via Caesars Sportsbook
Underdog of the Week
Vanderbilt at LSU: When you get to this point of the season, you need to keep your eyes open for teams that may be ready to pack it in. I’m not saying LSU is, but would it shock you if it was? A month ago, this team was 6-1 and had beaten Ole Miss to put it atop the SEC standings and CFP picture. The Tigers have lost three straight since and have had all their goals crushed. Now they’re at home facing a Vanderbilt team that’s enjoyed playing spoiler all year and has a mobile quarterback, something that’s dogged the Tigers all season long. Even if LSU comes out ready to play, I like the Commodores. Also, it has nothing to do with the play, but there’s a trend I discovered this week that made my brain explode a bit. Road underdogs in SEC games are a remarkable 18-6 against the spread this season. Let’s hope it’s 19-6 after this one. The Pick: Vanderbilt +7.5 (-105) via BetMGM Sportsbook
Under of the Week
Kentucky at No. 3 Texas: Speaking of SEC road dogs, maybe I should take Kentucky here instead? Nah, I’ll stick with the under. Texas’ offense has struggled in games against teams with good defenses, and while Kentucky isn’t a great team, it has a wonderful defense. The Wildcats rank seventh nationally in points allowed per possession primarily because they shut teams down in the red zone. The 3.46 points they allow per red zone possession ranks 7th as well. Texas should move the ball in this game, but will they get enough touchdowns? And even if Texas does score, can we be confident Kentucky will? The Texas defense is even better than Kentucky’s, and the Wildcats offense, well, they’re as good at not scoring touchdowns as their defense is at not allowing them. The Pick: Under 47.5 (-110) via Fanatics Sportsbook
Over of the Week
Tulsa at South Florida: When teams tell you who they are, listen to them. Tulsa has repeatedly told us it’s a team that wants to play high-scoring shootouts. The average Tulsa game has seen 63.8 points scored, and if we take away a couple of low-scoring stinkers against Louisiana Tech and Temple, the number rises to 70.6. South Florida isn’t much different, but the level of opponent has mattered. When the Bulls have faced teams that are clearly better than them (Alabama, Miami, Tulane, Memphis and Navy), they haven’t scored. The five games the Bulls have faced teams at their level or beneath them have seen an average of 66.4 points scored. Don’t be surprised if we cruise past this total before the fourth quarter. The Pick: Over 60.5 (-108) via Fanduel Sportsbook
|
Games of the Week |
1-1 |
12-12 |
-2.14 |
|
Lock of the Week |
1-0 |
7-5 |
+1.48 |
|
Overall |
2-4 |
35-37 |
-5.44 |
SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for 12 outright upsets in Week 13 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.
