In the final game of Week 12, the Los Angeles Chargers play host to the Baltimore Ravens on “Monday Night Football.”
Each of these two teams is coming off a wild game against an AFC North opponent, with the Chargers blowing a big lead and then managing to win anyway against the Bengals, and the Ravens seeing their comeback attempt against the Steelers fall short after missing on a two-point conversion.
They each currently occupy an AFC wild card spot, with the Chargers a half-game ahead at 7-3 while the Ravens are 7-4. The AFC race is incredibly close among the seven teams currently in playoff position, so this game carries some massive seeding implications.
Which of these AFC playoff contenders will secure a much-needed victory? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Chargers vs. Ravens
Date: Monday, Nov. 25 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Channel: ESPN | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Betting odds: Ravens -2.5; O/U 51 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
Check out the latest Caesars promo code to get in the game.
When the Ravens have the ball
It was a struggle for Baltimore against the Steelers last week, starting with Derrick Henry’s fumble on the opening drive of the game. They ended the game with three turnovers, and having scored on just two of their 12 drives before getting a late touchdown in the hurry-up offense. This from a team that had produced a touchdown or field goal on more than half of its drives through the first 10 weeks of the year.
For much of this season, the Chargers have been the same type of defensive unit. They have allowed the league’s lowest touchdown-or-field-goal rate on opponent drives, yielding a score only 25% of the time. But when you take a look at L.A.’s schedule, you can see some holes in that number. The Chargers played the Raiders, Panthers, Steelers (with Justin Fields), Chiefs, Broncos (before Bo Nix started playing well), Cardinals, Saints, Browns and Titans before lost week’s game against the Bengals. Prior to Cincinnati putting up 27 last weekend, nobody had scored more than 20 — and only the Steelers had even reached that number.
Through the first half against the Bengals last week, it was more of the same. But after halftime … the Bengals gained 274 yards on 32 plays, hanging 20 points on the board and creating several explosive plays. They did it mostly by spreading the field and letting Joe Burrow go to work. Burrow went 17 of 27 for 261 yards and three scores after the break, ripping off eight completions of 10-plus yards and three of 20 or more. And this was despite being pressured on 50% of his dropbacks, per Tru Media.
We’ve seen the Ravens do similar things in the passing game for most of this season. Lamar Jackson still leads the NFL in both yards per attempt, touchdown rate and passer rating, with a career-high passing success rate and a completion percentage just 0.2% off his career-best mark set last year. Of course, Jackson has again been arguably the NFL’s most effective scrambler, running away from pressure 24.4% of the time and gaining 7.6 yards per scramble. The Chargers have been one of the league’s worst defenses against scrambling quarterbacks, allowing 9.9 yards per scramble, which ranks 30th in the league.
The Chargers also play an absolute ton of zone coverage, which Jackson has torn apart throughout this season. The distance between his 0.38 EPA per dropback against zone and Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield in second place (0.22) is equal to the distance between those two and Jalen Hurts in 16th (0.06).
In the run game, L.A. has allowed the league’s fewest rushing touchdowns (three), but the Chargers are just 24th in yards allowed per carry. They have one of the league’s worst missed-tackle rates on running plays, which is less than ideal against a team with Jackson and Derrick Henry. The Chargers have stopped only 16.2% of opponent runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, via Tru Media, and have allowed a gain of five-plus yards 37.9% of the time. That’s a recipe for a very good rushing performance from the Ravens, and we should expect them to press that advantage.
When the Chargers have the ball
We know what we’re getting on this side of the ball. Absolutely nobody can run on the Ravens, and absolutely anybody can throw on them.
The Ravens rank second in EPA per play against the run and 31st against the pass, according to Tru Media. They have allowed just 3.4 yards per carry, the best mark in the NFL. And they’ve allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 27th. Opponents have gained 12 or more yards on just 4% of their rushing attempts, which is not only the best mark in the league but is also less than half of the 8.5% NFL average. Meanwhile, 10.2% of opponent passing attempts have turned into 20-plus-yard gains, which ranks as the fourth-worst mark in football.
So, we should not expect this to be a big game for J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards, or whomever else the Chargers decide to put in the backfield. Instead, things will rest almost entirely on the right shoulder of Justin Herbert, and on his pass-catching corps of Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer and Will Dissly.
Herbert looked fantastic early in the game against the Bengals last week, then went through a protracted lull for much of the middle of the game, only to make up for it with consecutive lasers on the team’s late, game-winning drive. He ended the evening 17 of 36, but for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also had another one of his best rushing games of the season, totaling 65 yards on his five carries.
He has been a low-volume passer throughout this season, averaging just 27.7 pass attempts per game after averaging 39.1 through his first four NFL seasons. He has just 13 touchdown passes in 10 games, but he’s averaging a career-best 7.9 yards per attempt, with a career-best 102.1 passer rating and a league-best 0.4% interception rate.
Baltimore’s defensive backfield seemingly has the talent to handle this passing attack, with Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Stephens, Ar’Darius Washington, Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams. But that’s been true all season and it has simply not happened for the Ravens to date. Add in Roquan Smith’s uncharacteristic (relative) struggles in coverage and Trenton Simpson’s weaknesses in that area, and there should be plenty of openings for Herbert to find downfield.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Chargers 24
Both of these teams should be able to find success offensively. Before struggling against Pittsburgh last week, the last time the Ravens faced a pass defense that had been smothering everybody in the NFL, they came out and tore up the Denver Broncos and hung 41 points on the board. We saw last week against Cincinnati that the Chargers defense does have some leaks, and we expect Lamar Jackson to find them.
Bonus: Mike Tierney, who is on a 52-22-2 roll on Ravens games, has released his best bets for the Week 12 Ravens vs. Chargers matchup. Tierney is leaning the Under total, but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at SportsLine.
