In the span of a month, Jayden Daniels has morphed from superhuman rookie to an ordinary one.
In his first six starts, Daniels completed 75.3% of his throws at a large 8.46 yards-per-attempt average with six passing touchdowns, two interceptions, and 322 yards with five more scores on the ground at 5.11 yards per pop.
The transformation began after a Week 7 rib injury in Carolina that limited him to two pass attempts. The Hail Mary win over the Bears the following week overshadowed what was otherwise a nondescript performance. Before the ball tipped majestically into the arms of Noah Brown to beat Chicago in Week 8, Daniels went 20 of 37 for 274 yards without a touchdown or interception.
Over the past three games, all Commanders losses, Daniels has completed 61.5% of his throws at a relatively low 6.42 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and three interceptions.
In the Week 12 loss to the Cowboys at home, 187 of Daniels’ 275 passing yards came in the final 5:04, when Washington trailed 20-9 and all chaos broke loose.
Of course, what could’ve been another miraculous comeback for the Commanders fell agonizingly short after a missed extra point, but we have to give Daniels credit for how he rose to the occasion late in that game against the Cowboys.
Yet, outside of garbage time, Washington’s offense has plummeted to 27th in football in Expected Points Added per play over the past three weeks from third in the first six contests of Daniels’ NFL career — a striking difference.
Maybe Daniels’ injury is the culprit here. Maybe it’s something else. And maybe he’ll rebound down the stretch, leading the Commanders to their first playoff appearance since 2020.
But the drastic downturn for a rookie quarterback as immensely talented as Daniels provides another cautionary tale about quarterbacks, especially young ones, being overly reliant on the scheme itself.
Through the first six weeks of the season, Washington was 10th in football in YAC per reception at 5.6 yards. He was the only quarterback in football with four receivers in the Top 25 of Separation Score, a metric that tracks varying degrees of separation on a route-by-route basis at FantastyPoints.com.
Individually, Daniels posted a 2.9% Big-Time Throw rate in that time frame, which was T23rd among 36 qualifiers. His 2.2% Turnover-Worthy Play rate was eighth-lowest — clearly a positive — and his 80.5% Adjusted Completion rate was third-best in the NFL. His 7.8 yard average depth of target ranked 19th. His pressure-to-sack rate was 19.7%, the 18th-lowest among quarterbacks, which is reasonably low for someone who was leading the league in scramble yards in the first six games.
In short, Daniels wasn’t connecting on very many high degree of difficulty throws but was very accurate on mostly underneath routes to typically open receivers. And he took good care of the football. Plus, he ran efficiently when he didn’t like what he saw in the pocket. That play-style description is perfectly acceptable for a rookie quarterback.
However, it does not suggest Daniels was carrying the team himself. Eventually, when there’s ample film to study, NFL defenses adjust. And when the receivers aren’t suddenly open at first glance or accumulating yards after the catch routinely, and those quarterback spies appear, the offense needs its quarterback to connect on those challenging, well-covered throws at the intermediate level and downfield.
During the three-game losing streak, Daniels’ BTT rate has increased slightly, to 3.6%. And he’s actually taken better care of the football, with a TWP rate of 1.6%. But his Adjusted Completion rate has dipped to 75.5% (19th), his aDOT is only 7.4 yards, and his pressure-to-sack rate was jumped to 27.8%, the sixth-highest in the NFL.
Now, it’s not a steadfast requirement that a quarterback hover near the top of the league in BTT rate to be considered a quality passer. Patrick Mahomes‘ BTT rate is 2.8%, which currently ranks 32nd in the NFL. But if that’s how a quarterback is going to operate, the scheme better be ultra creative and/or the skill-position talent needs to be at a clear advantage almost every week.
Washington is realizing that its scheme might not be brilliant, and its pass-catching options, while good, are rarely great. And the latter is what we were expecting before the season, right?
The Commanders find themselves, with their uber-talented rookie quarterback, at an inflection point. Daniels’ physical skills alone should keep Washington offensively relevant at the bare minimum. But can he elevate those around him, if and when Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme isn’t providing easy, open targets on a regular basis?
More than anything else, the answer to that question will tell the story of whether the Commanders’ downward spiral continues or if they surge to the playoffs.
