It’s time for December football. It begins this Sunday.
That means November is in the past, which is a good thing. I can’t think of a worse November I’ve had picking games. It’s been horrendous. My colleagues on CBSSportsHQ have taken to mocking me.
Yes, it’s that bad. I went 5-8 against the spread and 7-6 straight-up. That brings my season record to 80-96-3 ATS and 107-72-0 straight up.
Time to flip a coin to pick games? The coin would kill me.
As it is, I will stick to my own evaluations and hope it turns around. It won’t be any worse. December is upon us. Time to make a playoff push.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Check out the latest Caesars promo to get in the game.
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bears have lost four straight while the Lions have rolled to the top seed in the NFC right now. Playing the Lions on the road is never easy, but it’s even tougher on Thanksgiving. Caleb Williams showed well last week and will here as well to keep the Bears close. Lions win it, but it’s tight.
Pick: Lions 30, Bears 27
Bonus: Larry Hartstein, who is on a 98-63 roll on NFL games, loves one side of this matchup, and you can find out who to back over at SportsLine.
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Cowboys upset the Commanders last week, so they have some life. The Giants have none. In a game where it’s Cooper Rush against Tommy DeVito, give me the home team — even though Dallas hasn’t been good at home this year. They find a way.
Pick: Cowboys 24, Giants 17
Bonus: Larry Hartstein is also on a heater betting Cowboys games, as he’s won 27 of his past 37 bets involving America’s team. While he’s leaning under for this NFC East matchup, he shows a lot of value on the spread. To see which team he’s backing, head on over to SportsLine.
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)
The Dolphins come here playing well, especially Tua Tagovailoa. But this is a proving game of sorts for he and the Dolphins. He has to show he can win against a good team on the road. Green Bay seemed to get it going on offense last week against the 49ers. I think that carries over. Packers take it.
Pick: Packers 28, Dolphins 22
Friday, 3 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
The Raiders will start Aidan O’Connell here at quarterback after Gardner Minshew was lost for the year. That’s not a good thing against the Chiefs on the road. Kansas City hasn’t looked great this season, but this is the type of game that can get it rolling. It will.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Raiders 14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Falcons are coming off the bye, while the Chargers are playing on a short week on the road. That’s a challenge. But the Falcons offense went away in the two games before the bye. This Chargers defense will slow them again as Justin Herbert gets the best of the Atlanta defense.
Pick: Chargers 30, Falcons 21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bengals are off the bye and have to win out to basically have a playoff shot. The Steelers lost to the Browns in the snow last Thursday. The defense let them down in that game, and now they get Joe Burrow and company. That’s not easy. Burrow will find a way to win it.
Pick: Bengals 26, Steelers 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Jaguars are coming off a bye week with no changes made to the coaching staff. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence might be back for this one. But the defense has major issues. Look for C.J. Stroud to light them up as he gets it going again after a couple of so-so weeks.
Pick: Texans 33, Jaguars 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Cardinals are coming off a road loss to the Seahawks, while the Vikings are home for the first time in three weeks. The Arizona offense seemed to struggle last week at Seattle, and now it will be challenged by the Minnesota defense. I think the Vikings limit Kyler Murray, and the Minnesota offense will hit a few big plays to Justin Jefferson to win it.
Pick: Vikings 31, Cardinals 21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Patriots are coming off two bad losses, especially bad for the defense. But the Colts struggled on offense last week. I think that changes here as Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor both have good days to lead the Colts.
Pick: Colts 23, Patriots 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
This is a long trip for Seattle in between two division games against the Cardinals. The Jets are coming off a bye. Advantage, Jets. They haven’t played well at all, but something says they rally here to find a way, as Seattle will be focused on Arizona next week. It’s a classic sandwich game.
Pick: Jets 23, Seahawks 19
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Commanders suddenly don’t look like the same team, especially on offense. The Titans are coming off an impressive road victory against the Texans. The Commanders lost at home to Dallas last week. They won’t lose two in a row, but this will be close.
Pick: Commanders 24, Titans 21
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Bucs seemed to get back on a good track last week, but this game might be tougher than expected. The Panthers pushed the Chiefs last week in a loss. Bryce Young was better than he’s been, but I think the Tampa Bay defense will be good in this one as the Bucs start stacking victories.
Pick: Bucs 28, Panthers 17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Rams are off a bad loss to the Eagles, while the Saints are coming off their bye. They won two straight before the bye to keep them in the playoff chase. The loser is likely done here. I think Sean McVay will get his team back off the deck and find a way to win it behind Matt Stafford.
Pick: Rams 31, Saints 23
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is the game of the week, featuring two dynamic offenses that both have outstanding running games. But the edge at quarterback goes to Lamar Jackson, which will be the difference in this game. He will make some big-time plays with his legs and his right arm to pull out a shootout victory for the Ravens.
Pick: Ravens 34, Eagles 30
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-7)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)
The Bills are coming off their bye, while the 49ers are playing a second straight road game. The health of 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is the key here. If he plays, they might stay in this game. If he doesn’t, it’s ugly. Either way, the Bills will win it as Josh Allen pushes for his MVP.
Pick: Bills 30, 49ers 20
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo try for free)
The Browns are rested after having upset the Steelers last Thursday, which should help as they play consecutive road games. The Broncos are playing well. They are playing good defense, which will cause problems for Jameis Winston here. Look for a big game for the Broncos defense.
Pick: Broncos 24, Browns 14