I knew it was going to be a fantastic week when I made the San Francisco 49ers a best bet to upset the Green Bay Packers, and then it turned out Brock Purdy’s shoulder issue was more serious than we thought. Then came the upsets. Entering Week 12, teams were 5-0 ATS as 10.5-plus point favorites. The Dallas Cowboys didn’t just cover the spread vs. the Washington Commanders, but upset them straight up.
This week is one of the best weeks in football, as not a single team has a bye. We get a Thanksgiving tripleheader, a “Black Friday” game, and of course, a full NFL Sunday as well. If you haven’t yet, take advantage of a sign-up bonus for new users with this BetMGM promo code so you can make money.
Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All NFL sports betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Top-five picks ATS record: 24-30-1
Overall ATS record: 80-96-3
Straight up record: 110-69
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Everyone knows the Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL, but how about this defense? They haven’t allowed a single touchdown in each of the last two games! Detroit has lost seven straight on Thanksgiving, so you know Dan Campbell’s squad will be motivated to show out in front of its home fans as the Lions continue on their quest to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Caleb Williams has looked much improved since Shane Waldron was fired. He’s completing 71% of his passes with 285.5 passing yards per game with Thomas Brown as offensive coordinator, and D.J. Moore has caught all 14 of his targets since the change in leadership. Still, this is Chicago’s first game on the road since Week 9, and the Bears haven’t won on the road all year. The Bears have also covered the spread just once away from Chicago this season.
Maybe the Bears will keep things close early, but I see the Lions running away in the second half.
The pick: Lions -9.5
Projected score: Lions 31-21
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
This game was supposed to be Dak Prescott vs. Daniel Jones, but now it’s Cooper Rush vs. Tommy DeVito. Or will it be? Tommy Cutlets is dealing with a forearm injury, and reports indicate it should be Drew Lock at quarterback.
New York hasn’t won a game since Week 5, and probably has the most disgruntled locker room in the NFL right now. Some view Lock as an upgrade at quarterback, but it’s hard to back this team on a short week on the road. As for the Cowboys, they showed life last week in one of the biggest upsets of the season by defeating the Commanders. Rush threw two touchdowns, Rico Dowdle rushed for 86 yards, KaVontae Turpin returned two kicks for touchdowns and the defense kept pressure on the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite.
Yes, the Cowboys aren’t some Super Bowl contender and they have struggled at home this year. But this Giants squad hasn’t covered the spread in six games. I’m taking Dallas.
The pick: Cowboys -3.5
Projected score: 17-10
Will Rico Dowdle cross 68 rushing yards? Bet his props at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Friday, 3 p.m. ET (Prime)
Apparently the Chiefs locker room was shell-shocked after a three-point win over the Carolina Panthers last Sunday, which seems a little ridiculous because a win is a win. Still, maybe this is something that will motivate the Chiefs at home on Black Friday, when they host a team without a quarterback.
Gardner Minshew broke his collarbone on Sunday, while Aidan O’Connell is attempting to come back after a thumb injury landed him on injured reserve. He may be a bit rusty after going four weeks without throwing. The Chiefs are known for being an ATS loser, but this is a get-right spot for a Super Bowl contender.
The pick: Chiefs -13
Projected score: Chiefs 30-13
Will Patrick Mahomes throw 2 touchdowns on Friday? Bet his props at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
Geno Smith revenge game! He’s the NFL leader in passing yards per game and passing completions this season, and with the win over the Arizona Cardinals last week, his Seahawks own first place in the NFC West!
The Jets have been a disaster, and the firing of general manager Joe Douglas is not going to spark a run. In fact, it sounds like he was respected in that organization, not disliked. Aaron Rodgers had the bye week to rest, but I think the entire NFL world is curious to know how injured he is. The future Hall of Famer has recorded the worst yards per attempt (6.4) and passer rating (88.9) through 11 games in his entire career, and has now gone 33 straight starts without a 300-yard passing game. It seems like the Seahawks are improving, while the Jets are going the other direction.
The pick: Seahawks -2
Projected score: Seahawks 23-18
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-7)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC and fubo, try for free)
The Bills have won 14 straight regular-season games in December or later, which is tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history. They are fresh off a bye week following the statement win over the Chiefs, and now host a California team in a frigid Highmark Stadium.
This is the fourth time over the last six games the 49ers are playing a team coming off their bye. We thought they were poised for a massive run in the second half of the season, but San Francisco just hasn’t played well. Now, Brock Purdy is dealing with a shoulder issue that caused him to miss last week.
The 49ers are 1-4 ATS on the road, and may move to 1-5 against a hyped-up yet rested Bills team playing at home in the freezing cold.
The pick: Bills -7
Projected score: Bills 20-10
