We were so close last week. The perfect week we’ve been in search of all season was within our grasp, and then that dastardly villain, Ryan Day, ripped it away from us. All Ohio State had to do was kneel out the final seconds of their win over Indiana, and our under would’ve cashed for a 6-0 week.
Instead, Day ran a QB sneak at the goal line. Twice. The second attempt worked, and the under, as well as our perfect week, were lost for eternity.
Did Day stop to consider the victims of his belligerence? No. Should he have? Most certainly. Alas, it’s too late now, and Day joins Eli Drinkwitz as coaches who hurt others to make themselves feel better. Shame on them both!
Regardless, the quest for perfection continues. I guess we’ll just have to do it this week instead.
Games of the Week
No. 3 Texas at No. 20 Texas A&M: There is a lot on the line in this one. Texas A&M’s only hope of reaching the College Football Playoff is to win the SEC, and the Aggies can clinch a spot in the SEC Championship Game with a win here. Texas can probably afford another loss but can’t take it for granted, so it needs to win to clinch a spot in Atlanta as well. Oh, and they’re two long-time rivals who haven’t played in years due to conference realignment and spent the entire time pretending they didn’t care about the other one, even though it’s painfully clear to everybody else that they very much did.
Such strong “just kiss already” at the eighth-grade dance vibes.
When they do finally kiss Saturday night, I expect it’ll be a sloppy one. I don’t have a ton of confidence in either one of these offenses. The two best defenses the Aggies have seen this season were Notre Dame and South Carolina, and they were shut down in both games. As for Texas, outside of the Florida game where the Gators were down to their third-string QB and looked as if they’d have rather been anywhere else in the world, the Longhorns offense has felt clunky, too. I’m not sure who wins, but I don’t expect either side to score a lot of points. The Pick: Under 49.5 (-115) via BetMGM
No. 15 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson: I have no idea if South Carolina has a realistic shot at the invitational because we don’t know for certain what the invite committee prioritizes. If it’s head-to-head, the Gamecocks are screwed. If it’s avoiding 21-point losses to teams that barely qualify to reach a bowl game, they’ve got a chance. Regardless, a win over Clemson would go a long way! Clemson’s in a similar spot, where a win over the Gamecocks would give the Tigers a much stronger at-large résumé, though I’m not sure it’ll be enough to wash off that 34-3 loss to Georgia in Week 1.
And it’s that game that gives me serious doubts about Clemson here. I don’t know that South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers can be expected to keep playing the way he has for the last month, but I also feel like Cade Klubnik and the Tigers offense fare much better against teams they overmatch. They will not overmatch this South Carolina defense. Clemson has played two “gotta have it” games this season and lost both. I’m not willing to bet on the third time being the charm. The Pick: South Carolina +2.5 (-105) via BetMGM
Lock of the Week
Mississippi State at No. 14 Ole Miss (Friday): First off, let me express my disappointment that the Egg Bowl is no longer played on Thanksgiving night. I have very much enjoyed having it as an option after dinner, and it had become a tradition in my home. While it has moved, I don’t expect the insanity that comes with the game to change much, which makes it so hard to pass up the chance to take Mississippi State getting all these points.
Ole Miss looked like a defeated team after last week’s loss to Florida. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Rebels sneak into the 12-team field. Meanwhile, this is State’s Super Bowl, and I’m expecting them to come out with everything they have to kick the Rebs while they’re down. Plus, for as bad as State has been this season, the only team to beat it by 27 points or more was Arkansas. Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Missouri couldn’t do it. Why should Ole Miss? The Pick: Mississippi State +26.5 (-110) via Fanduel
Under of the Week
No. 5 Notre Dame at USC: I’ve seen a lot of people share their surprise that Notre Dame is barely a touchdown favorite in this spot, but I’d like to point out that USC has led in the fourth quarter of every game it’s played, and all of its losses have been by one score. It’s not a good team, but it’s better than its 6-5 record suggests, and this is only Notre Dame’s third true road game of the season.
Still, I’m avoiding the spread because I’m weary of Notre Dame trying to make a statement here to help its seeding. Whether the Irish are capable of doing so, I don’t know. I think the smarter play is the under because I don’t totally trust the Irish offense in this matchup. USC’s offense has been less efficient since making the switch to Jayden Maiava at QB, and this Notre Dame defense is pretty dang good. The Pick: Under 52 (-110) via DraftKings
Over of the Week
No. 23 Illinois at Northwestern: I swear oddsmakers haven’t paid any attention to Illinois this season. In games against Oregon and Penn State, the Illini have been held to 16 points. In their other nine games, they’ve averaged 32.6 points. While Northwestern’s offense has been awful, the Wildcats are more reliant on their run game, and teams have been able to run the ball against the Illini this year. The Illini rank 15th in the Big Ten in yards allowed per carry and 16th in rushing yards per game, so I can see Northwestern having some success in that regard. I can also see Illinois putting up close to 40 points by itself if things click. The Pick: Over 43.5 (-110) via Caesars
Vibe Shift of the Week
Oklahoma at LSU: Typically, you don’t want to be on the opposing sideline at night in Tiger Stadium. This week, I wonder if the opposing sideline isn’t the safer option than the LSU sideline. Tiger fans aren’t happy with Brian Kelly or their team. LSU is 6-4, unranked, and just lost the best player in its recruiting class (Bryce Underwood) to Michigan.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s coming off a major upset with Alabama, and I don’t expect there to be a letdown here. I think the Sooners would love to beat LSU, too. Also, ever since Oklahoma replaced offensive coordinator Seth Littrell, we’ve seen them use Jackson Arnold in the run game more. We’ve also seen the LSU defense look absolutely helpless against quarterbacks when they’re used in the run game. Maybe Oklahoma doesn’t get the win, but it’s going to make this one uncomfortable at a minimum. The Pick: Oklahoma +6 (-108) via DraftKings
|
Games of the Week |
1-1 |
13-13 |
-2.20 |
|
Lock of the Week |
1-0 |
8-5 |
+2.48 |
|
Overall |
5-1 |
40-38 |
-1.50 |
