Florida State is set to host Florida on Saturday evening in the 68th meeting between the in-state rivals. The Gators and Seminoles have played every year since 1958, except for 2020 when leagues around the nation adjusted their schedules to include conference-only games in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Florida leads the series with a 37-28-2 record, but modern games have favored Florida State. The Seminoles are riding a two-game winning streak and have come out on top in nine of 13 games since 2010. Seven of those wins have come by at least two possessions.
But this year’s “Sunshine Showdown” tells the story of two programs headed in opposite directions, especially when considering preseason expectations. Florida coach Billy Napier entered the year on one of the hottest seats in college football, and a relatively lackluster start did not do much to help his case. Since the administration reaffirmed its faith in Napier, though, the Gators have ripped off two straight SEC wins against ranked opponents.
In Week 13 they downed Ole Miss 24-17, snapping a six-game losing streak against top-10 teams. Florida State, on the other hand, entered the year as a top-10 team fresh off a 2023 campaign in which it finished the regular season 12-0 and won the ACC championship.
The Seminoles dropped their season opener against Georgia Tech and have been in a spiral since, with a 2-9 record and just one win against an FBS opponent.
Florida vs. Florida State: Need to know
Freshmen in the spotlight: For the first time in series history, both Florida and Florida State will start freshmen quarterbacks in Saturday’s game. DJ Lagway, the No. 1 signal caller in the class of 2024, has been a mainstay in the Gators’ rotation all year, but he took the starting job when incumbent Graham Mertz suffered an ACL injury on Oct. 12 against Tennessee. Lagway has given Florida fans plenty to be excited about during his time on the field. He’s thrown for 1,477 yards and nine touchdowns while rushing for 105 yards thus far. His arm talent is apparent any time he uncorks a deep ball, but his accuracy on long throws is impressive for a quarterback this early into his collegiate career.
Florida State was put into its own tough quarterback situation in October when DJ Uiagelelei injured his throwing hand. The Seminoles have tried a couple different options in the wake of Uiagalelei’s setback, which led to freshman Luke Kromenhoek earning his first career start in Week 13 against Charleston Southern. Kromenhoek completed 13 of his 20 passes for 2019 yards and three touchdowns in the win.
A lot on the line for Florida State: Florida State is far from bowl contention at this point, but the Seminoles still have plenty to play for — even beyond bragging rights against a top in-state rival. The Seminoles have a chance to avoid losing 10 games for the first time since 1974 and just the third time in program history. Florida State snapped a six-game losing streak in Week 13’s win against Charleston Southern, so the Seminoles are on the right track. They have already become the third FBS team since 1998 to win their conference and then finish last in that same conference the following season. Florida State is also the first ACC program to take sole possession of 17th place in the expanded league.
Florida can improve postseason stock: Florida already secured bowl eligibility by beating Ole Miss, but Saturday is a prime opportunity to notch another win and improve its standing in the bowl bidding process. The Gators have not won seven games since 2020, when they went 8-4 and made it to the Cotton Bowl under former coach Dan Mullen. They also haven’t had a winning record under Napier, so improving to 7-5 in the regular season will ensure that Florida finishes above .500 for the first time in four years.
How to watch Florida vs. Florida State live
Date: Saturday, Nov. 30 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Doak Campbell Stadium — Tallahassee, Florida
TV: ESPN 2 | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Florida vs. Florida State prediction, picks
Florida has been on a tear recently, but really the Gators have been better than their record indicates all year. Key to the late-season turnaround is a defense that, despite some mounting injuries — especially in the secondary — has vastly improved in short order. The Gators held two really good offenses under 20 points in their last two wins against LSU and Ole Miss. Now they face a Florida State offense that has averaged a woeful 11 points per game against FBS opponents. The Seminoles have eclipsed the 20-point mark just twice this season, and one of those was in a recent win against Charleston Southern. Florida should be able to pick its score and cover the line on sports betting apps. Pick: Florida -16.5 (-110)
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SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for multiple outright upsets in Week 14 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.