Following college football’s season-long script of parity-driven results, rivalry weekend did not disappoint as the playoff picture took another wild spin following stunning losses from Ohio State and Miami that have disrupted our latest bracket projection. Ryan Day’s tenure is under the microscope after his fourth consecutive loss to Michigan pushed Penn State into the Big Ten Championship and leaves the Buckeyes grasping at reasons for consistent failures against their rivals.
The previously sixth-ranked Hurricanes could be on the outside looking in with a first-time bubble watch designation since they’re no longer in play for a league crown in the ACC. At 10-2 overall without a single win this season over a nationally-ranked opponent, Miami’s resume lacks staying power inside the top 12.
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Our projections differ slightly from the sports betting markets ahead of Tuesday night’s fifth College Football Playoff top 25 rankings reveal. Oregon is the favorite at +370 to win the CFP title at Caesars Sportsbook. Other top contenders include Texas at +410 and Georgia +450, according to latest odds at Caesars. When you register at Caesars Sportsbook today, you can earn a welcome bonus that unlocks up to a $1,000 first bet back as a bonus bet. Use the promo code ‘CBS1000’ to claim this offer.
Projected byes in College Football Playoff
1. Oregon
Big Ten champion
The only unbeaten team in college football entering conference championship weekend, the Ducks just keep getting it done week after week and have proven to be upset-proof this fall. The road gets considerably more difficult from here since the next series of games all come against elite competition. Oregon opened as a slight favorite over Penn State in the Big Ten Championship (8 p.m. ET, CBS).
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +370
2. Texas
SEC champion
The Longhorns’ defense this season has carried them to the SEC Championship, where they’ll play a rematch with Georgia in Atlanta with a first-round bye on the line. There’s even a red zone package for Arch Manning now as Texas appears to be playing its best football with proper personnel utilization down the stretch (Georgia struggled with a mobile QB last week in a close win over Georgia Tech). The Longhorns are favored to beat UGA, like they were in October when they lost 30-15 in Austin.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +410
3. SMU
ACC champion
It’s either going to be SMU or Clemson in this spot from the ACC following Miami’s loss to Syracuse. The Mustangs’ lone setback came against BYU earlier this fall and they’ve dominated ACC competition since. Rhett Lashlee has pounded the table for the selection committee to show more respect to the ACC and we’re going to see if that’s the case over the next two rankings releases.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +3000
4. Boise State
Group of Five champion
Boise State meet UNLV in the Mountain West Championship and will preserve its first-round bye status with a victory. However, if the Broncos lose to Barry Odom’s squad, then we’ll be looking at another Group of Five representative in the playoff.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +7500
Projected CFP first-round games
Friday, Dec. 21 and Saturday, Dec. 22
5. Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Arizona State (in South Bend)
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State
About the Fighting Irish: One of the hottest teams in college football entering the postseason, Notre Dame registered a pair of defensive touchdowns to down USC in the final moments during rivalry weekend to finish 11-1. The only hiccup this fall came against NIU in September for a team equipped with national title aspirations.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1000
About the Sun Devils: Arizona State is a win over Iowa State away from winning the Big 12 in its first season as one the league’s newcomers. And that would mean an auto-berth in the playoff as one of five highest-ranked conference champions.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +7500
6. Penn State vs. No. 11 Alabama (in State College)
Winner plays No. 3 SMU
About the Nittany Lions: Few expected Penn State to be a potential Big Ten title winner this fall, but the Nittany Lions have that opportunity in Indianapolis. A consolation prize for a projected loss to unbeaten Oregon is a first-round home game in a sold-out Beaver Stadium. Not bad, huh?
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1000
About the Crimson Tide: Will three-loss Alabama be the last team in, ahead of Miami and South Carolina? That’s our projection entering conference championship week. The Crimson Tide hold the head-to-head advantage over the Gamecocks and their season-long resume is considerably more impressive than what the Hurricanes have managed in the ACC.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +2000
7. Georgia vs. No. 10 Indiana (in Athens)
Winner plays No. 2 Texas
About the Bulldogs: Georgia will be a top-4 seed if the Bulldogs take out Texas next weekend, but if not, we’re expecting a first-round home game against a probable Big Ten opponent. Georgia’s lucky rivalry weekend didn’t result in the team’s third loss. That marathon win against Georgia Tech was exhilarating.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +450
About the Hoosiers: Curt Cignetti made sure the selection committee wouldn’t overlook his team with a 66-0 beatdown on Purdue in the finale. Behind six touchdown passes from Kurtis Rourke, the Hoosiers accomplished what they’ve done throughout the season, humiliating another Big Ten opponent.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +4000
8. Ohio State vs. No. 9 Tennessee (in Columbus)
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon
About the Buckeyes: Day’s future at Ohio State could be determined by what happens over the next few weeks in the playoff. If he’s one and done, it’ll be hard for the Buckeyes to justify bringing him back considering the failure to meet expectations with arguably college football’s most-talented roster.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +450
About the Vols: Tennessee cliched a playoff berth with its 10-2 finish, anchored by Saturday’s victory at Vanderbilt. The Vols overcame an early two-touchdown deficit to win going away, sending the Commodores to another loss during a forgettable November. The question for Tennessee is whether the Vols will play at Neyland Stadium or on the road in the first round.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1700
College Football Playoff quarterfinals are at the following bowl sites this year: Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the SEC champion in the quarterfinals, so second-seeded Texas would be playing in New Orleans while the Rose Bowl welcomes the Big Ten champion to Pasadena.
MORE: How the committee will select the inaugural 12-team field
