The NFL has officially hit December as playoff races are heating up around the league. In what was one of the wildest weeks in recent memory, 12 games were decided by seven-or-fewer points — tied for the most in a single week in NFL history. Three teams recorded a game-winning score in the final minute of the fourth quarter or in overtime to remain in the playoff battle with five weeks to play.
The Philadelphia Eagles had a massive win over the Baltimore Ravens, setting the stage for a wild finish at the top of the NFC and a seismic shift in the AFC North title hopes. There were plenty of overreactions to go around the league after the Week 13 Sunday afternoon slate, most of which have a playoff impact.
Which overreactions will stick? Which ones are reality?
Eagles won’t lose another game the rest of the regular season
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Eagles are flying high on an a eight-game winning streak, having a statement win over the Ravens in Baltimore. Philadelphia held Baltimore to just 19 points and 372 yards, the second-fewest in any game for the Ravens this season (and a majority of them came in the final minute in garbage time).
Clearly in the mix for home-field advantage in the NFC, are the Eagles going to lose another game? Philadelphia has three teams with losing records left on its schedule (Carolina, Dallas and New York Giants) with a home showdown with Pittsburgh and a road contest at Washington.
There’s a good chance the Eagles do win 14 games, but to finish 15-2 is a very tough task. The Steelers are one of the better teams in football and will be a tough out, even with the game at home. The Commanders are usually tough on the road, even if the Eagles beat them earlier this year.
With how little the Eagles turn the ball over and how well the defense is playing, never say never with this group. A 13-game winning streak seems very tough to accomplish.
The Ravens have to replace Justin Tucker before the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Tucker missed two field goals and an extra point in Sunday’s loss to the Eagles, as the Ravens lost by five points (they did score a touchdown late when the game was out of hand). Baltimore still could have taken a 10-point first quarter lead with Tucker’s missed extra point and the lead twice in the third quarter if it wasn’t for Tucker’s missed kicks.
The Ravens have five losses by a combined 22 points this season. Tucker’s missed kicks have accumulated for 22 points in those five losses. Tucker has six points worth of missed kicks in a two-point loss at Steelers in Week 11 and seven points worth of missed kicks in a five-point loss Sunday. That’s the difference between the Ravens and Steelers in the AFC North.
The Ravens are a Super Bowl-caliber team, but their best strength for year is their biggest weakness. No kicker can replace the value of Tucker when he’s on, and Tucker is one of the best in NFL history. The Ravens just have to ride with Tucker and hope he figures it out. They don’t have another choice.
Bengals will miss playoffs and Zac Taylor will get fired
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Bengals’ Super Bowl hopes appear cooked for 2024, as they needed to beat the Steelers to have any shot at the postseason. Once again, the Bengals scored enough to win a football game — but the defense allowed 44 points to the Steelers to bury them in the playoff standings. The Bengals are 1-2 when they score 38+ points this season and the rest of the NFL is 21-0.
Something is wrong with this Bengals team. Joe Burrow is playing the best football of his career and this team can’t get off the field. They have 99 points in their last three games and are 0-3 in that stretch. They have four losses with 33+ points (the most in NFL history) and six losses with 25+ points (tied for the most in NFL history).
No coach can survive that with this talent on the roster. The Bengals need a change, as they sit three games behind the Broncos in the loss column for the final playoff spot. They need to win out to have a shot, but the defense just isn’t good enough.
Taylor will take the fall, and the Bengals will retool this offseason.
Steelers are going to win the AFC North
Overreaction or reality: Reality
There is still time for the Ravens to catch the Steelers, but Baltimore took a significant hit in its division title hopes when the Ravens fell to the Eagles. The Steelers also had a huge win over the Bengals to extend their division lead to two games in the loss column over Baltimore with five to play (and Pittsburgh has the tiebreaker).
Pittsburgh has a brutal three-game stretch with Philadelphia (road), Baltimore (road) and Kansas City (home) in a span of 10 days. The Steelers could go 0-3 in that stretch, but Baltimore would have to go 3-0 (they play the New York Giants, Pittsburgh and Houston) in order to catch and pass them.
The AFC North isn’t over yet thanks to Pittsburgh’s schedule, but the Steelers have set themselves up to take this division. A win next week would give Pittsburgh (the Steelers play Cleveland) a three-game lead with four to play, putting the Ravens in a very deep hole for their division title chances.
With the way Pittsburgh is playing, good chance they finish off the division soon.
Colts are Broncos’ biggest threat for No. 7 seed in AFC
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Is there a threat to the Broncos for the final playoff spot? After the top six in the AFC standings, there is the Broncos — then everyone else. The Colts are No. 8 in the AFC standings following their win over the Patriots, sitting two games behind the Broncos in the loss column for the final spot.
Why are the Colts the biggest threat to the Broncos? Indianapolis plays Denver in two weeks, and the Colts have a bye next week. The Broncos play the Browns on Monday night then have a bye week of their own, so they could have a two-game lead over Indianapolis heading into that matchup in Week 15.
If Denver has a two-game lead and wins that showdown with Indianapolis, the final playoff spot in the AFC will be wrapped up. A loss makes the Week 15 game even bigger for Denver, who has not fallen from the playoff ranks even though the Broncos have been in the top seven in the standings since October.
The Colts are the Broncos’ biggest threat for that playoff spot, since they get to play them in December.
Buccaneers will win the NFC South
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Buccaneers are tied with the Falcons for the NFC South lead after their win over the Panthers and the Falcons’ loss to the Chargers. Is there any reason to believe the Buccaneers can take the division from the Falcons after struggling to beat Carolina?
The Falcons are giving this division away, but Atlanta did sweep Tampa Bay to have the tiebreaker for the division. The NFC South will come down to Atlanta and Tampa Bay over the final five weeks, but who has the easier path?
Atlanta plays three teams with a losing record (Las Vegas, New York Giants, Carolina) while Tampa Bay plays four of its final five currently with a losing record (Las Vegas, Dallas, Carolina, New Orleans). The Buccaneers can win four of their next five to get to 9-8, but will that be enough to pass Atlanta — even with their slide?
Remember the Buccaneers can’t tie the Falcons in this division. They have to pass Tampa Bay, so taking care of business is paramount. Atlanta still has control of the NFC South, but the margin for error is officially gone.
