The Carolina Panthers are in line for a top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft (per Tankathon), yet aren’t out of the NFC playoff race. Thanks to the ineptitude of the NFC South, there is a pathway for the Panthers to make the playoffs — even though Carolina will finish with a losing record this season.
The Panthers can still win the NFC South with an 8-9 record, even after their loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday. How can they win the NFC South with a losing record? Thanks to the Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons both being 6-6, there is a way.
Here’s what has to happen for the Panthers to win the division:
- Win each of their last five games
- Falcons go 1-4 or 0-5 in their last five games
- Buccaneers go 2-3 or worse in their last five games — and must lose to Panthers and Saints
- Saints go 3-2 or worse
If all three teams tie with an 8-9 record — and the Buccaneers lose to the Saints in Week 18 — the Panthers would make the playoffs by virtue of the division record tiebreaker over Tampa Bay. Carolina would go 3-3 in the NFC South while Tampa Bay would finish 2-4 in the division.
The Falcons would have to go 1-4 or 0-5, since Atlanta would win the division at 8-9 (the Falcons play the Panthers in Week 18 anyway, so that would eliminate the Panthers if Atlanta won). The Saints would also have to finish 7-10 or worse (currently 4-8), since they have a 2-3 division record (and finish with the Buccaneers), and would have the tiebreaker over Carolina.
The Panthers’ remaining schedule includes the Eagles (10-2), Cowboys (5-7), Cardinals (6-6), Buccaneers (6-6) and Falcons (6-6) — so there isn’t an easy path toward winning the NFC South. Carolina needs a lot of help to win the division, but there is a path.
A lot of things need to go right.
