All we needed was some turkey and gravy to get us back on track. Starting on the Thanksgiving triple-header and rolling into Monday’s clash between the Browns and Broncos, I enjoyed my best betting week in quite some time, wrapping up an 11-5 ATS record for the slate overall, tied for the best among our CBS Sports experts. That includes being the only CBS Sports expert to correctly take the Philadelphia Eagles both straight up and against the spread in Baltimore against the Ravens.
While this gives us great momentum heading into the final full month of the regular season, there’s still plenty of room for improvement. I went 2-3 ATS in my five locks of the week to keep us hovering at .500 on the season. I’ll look to get that aligned with last week’s overall strong performance as we now pivot to Week 14.
2024 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 30-30
ATS: 92-100-3
ML: 125-70
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- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
Another week, another chance to lay the points with the Detroit Lions. Yes, this is admittedly giving me a little more pause because Detroit is a little banged up, but with an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth with a win, I expect a ruckus environment at Ford Field on Thursday that helps get this team up even more for this divisional matchup. Jared Goff has been sensational at home this season, particularly over the last four games at Ford Field. In that stretch, he’s 4-0, has a passer rating of 148.7 and has thrown 11 touchdowns with zero interceptions. The Lions are also averaging 42.3 points per game. Goff is also 6-2 against the Packers in his career, so it’s a favorable matchup on top of the home-field advantage. Green Bay has also struggled to play within the number in divisional games this season and has yet to record a cover against an NFC North opponent (0-3 ATS).
Projected score: Lions 30, Packers 23
The pick: Lions -3.5
Bonus: SportsLine expert Eric Cohen reveals his scores for Week 14, including his ‘TNF’ pick between the Lions and Packers. Check out which team he has winning over at SportsLine.
The New York Jets are toast and a loss away from officially being eliminated from playoff contention. Does this feel like a team that will be swinging up until its last breath? I doubt it. Meanwhile, Miami is still clinging to playoff hopes and will be treating all of these games as such. With the Dolphins now back under their own — warm — roof, they should go back to being one of the deadliest offenses in the league. And if New York gets down early, I would guess it’ll pack it in. Miami is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against the Jets, while New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four games on the road.
Projected score: Dolphins 27, Jets 17
The pick: Dolphins -6.5
I believe that we’ll look back on this game and say that this is where the NFC West was won. Seattle comes into this matchup at 7-5 on the season and owns a game lead over both the Cardinals and Rams. They also currently have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Arizona, thanks to a win just two weeks ago in Week 12. If they come out victorious again, they will have solidified that key tiebreaker, further cementing their path toward a division title. With all that laid out, this will be treated like a playoff game for both sides. Currently, I like the way that Seattle is playing, particularly on defense. Over the last three games, they are holding opponents to just 14.7 points per game. Meanwhile, Geno Smith has never lost against the Cardinals in his career (5-0). If both Smith and the defense carry that momentum into Arizona on Sunday, they pull off the upset.
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24
The pick: Seahawks +2.5
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Bills are coming off the heels of winning the AFC East in a winter wonderland against the 49ers last Sunday, so some may fear that this is a letdown spot. However, this Buffalo squad still needs to keep pace in the standings to possibly catch the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed in the conference, so I think we’ll get a dialed-in club as they head out to Los Angeles. While the Rams have recognizable faces like Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford headlining the franchise, I don’t believe they are the powerhouse they once were. Really, they’ve just beaten up subpar/injured teams for the most part while losing to elite teams like the Lions and Eagles. Buffalo certainly falls into that elite category, and I expect a similar result, especially with the Rams 2-4 ATS at home this season.
If you’re a fan of laddering player props, I’d also suggest heading over to DraftKings and targeting James Cook’s rushing totals, as the Rams are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards and third-most rushing attempts to running backs this season.
Projected score: Bills 30, Rams 20
The pick: Bills -4.5
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
We’ve attacked this type of scenario before, and we’re doing it again here with the Chicago Bears, who’ll be playing in their first game since the firing of head coach Matt Eberflus. Typically, teams fare well ATS in the immediate aftermath of firing a head coach, and we’ll look for Chicago to keep that trend alive in this matchup. The Bears have the rest advantage over San Francisco after playing on Thanksgiving and are catching the Niners at an ideal time. Their backfield was just gutted, with both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason going on injured reserve, leaving plenty of questions about how they’ll be able to move the ball on the ground. Meanwhile, the Bears have been playing well and likely should have a few more wins than they did had it not been for boneheaded coaching decisions or sheer bad luck. We won’t go all the way and predict a Bears upset, but they’ll keep it within a field goal against a 49ers team that is 1-4 ATS against teams entering their matchups under .500 this season.
Projected score: 49ers 24, Bears 21
The pick: Bears +4
Rest of the bunch
Falcons at Vikings
Projected score: Vikings 27, Falcons 20
The pick: Vikings -5
Panthers at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 30, Panthers 20
The pick: Panthers +12.5
Browns at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 27, Browns 20
The pick: Steelers -6.5
Jaguars at Titans
Projected score: Jaguars 23, Titans 20
The pick: Jaguars +3.5
Raiders at Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Raiders 20
The pick: Buccaneers -7
Saints at Giants
Projected score: Saints 23, Giants 17
The pick: Saints -5
Chargers at Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 27, Chargers 24
The pick: Chargers +4
Bengals at Cowboys
Projected score: Bengals 30, Cowboys 23
The pick: Bengals -5.5
