Ranking NFL wild-card playoff contenders, plus Browns-Broncos grades and Prisco’s Week 14 Power Rankings

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! 

I never thought I’d say this, but the NFL should put the rest of the Browns‘ games in prime time. The Browns have only played two prime-time games this year and both of them have been crazy. In Week 12, they shocked the Steelers in a Thursday night game, and then they followed that up by almost pulling off another shocker on Monday night. 

In what might have been the most unexpectedly entertaining game of the year, Jameis Winston went off against the Broncos, throwing for 497 yards in a 41-32 loss. We’ll be handing out grades from that game, plus we’ll be ranking wild-card contenders today and we’ll also be taking a look at Prisco’s latest power rankings. 

As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends and neighbors to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Signing someone up makes a great birthday present, which I’m only mentioning because it’s my brother’s birthday. Happy Birthday, Dan! Alright, let’s get to the rundown. 

1. Broncos top Browns: Grades and notes from Denver’s wild Monday night win

In one of the wildest games of the season, the Broncos got a huge scare from the Browns before escaping with a 41-32 win. 

Here are our grades from the game: 

BROWNS GRADE: B-

There are always plenty of highs when Jameis Winston is your quarterback and plenty of lows and the Browns got all of it in a Monday night game where America got to witness the full Jameis Winston experience. Winston set the Browns’ franchise record with 497 passing yards, but he also threw two pick sixes and that ended up being the difference in the game (He also threw a third interception in the end zone late in the fourth quarter). Jerry Jeudy did his best to get revenge on his old team with nine catches for 235 yards, but it just wasn’t enough for Cleveland to get the win. If the Browns had turned to Winston earlier in the season, this is a team that might have been able to contend for a playoff spot, but instead, they’ll have to be content with playing spoiler down the stretch.

Browns notes

• Jameis Winston goes off. This game was the most Jameis Winston game ever. On the positive side, he threw for a franchise-record 497 yards, topping the old mark of 457, which was set by Josh McCown back in 2015. On the negative side, Winston became the first player in NFL history to throw for at least 450 yards with at least two pick sixes in a game. Winston also became the first player to with at least 450 passing yards, four passing touchdowns and three interceptions in the same game since … Jameis Winston in 2019. Winston also finished with the second-most passing yards in a Monday night game in NFL history, trailing only Tom Brady, who once threw for 517 in 2011. Jameis now has 1,680 yards in his first five starts with the Browns, which is the third-most in NFL history for a QB in his first five starts with a new team. 
• Jerry Jeudy goes off against his old team. The former Broncos receiver absolutely terrorized his old team with nine receptions for 235 yards and one touchdown. With his receiving number, Jeudy set an NFL record for the most receiving yards against a former team, topping a record that was previously held by Terrell Owens, who had 213 against the 49ers while playing for the Cowboys.  

BRONCOS GRADE: B-

The Broncos defense got torched for more than 550 yards, but they were able to come up with big plays in the clutch and that’s why Denver was able to come away with the win. The Broncos came away with two pick sixes, including a 44-yard score by Ja’Quan McMillian with 1:48 left that iced the game. Offensively, Bo Nix turned the ball over twice, but he also made plenty of big plays, including a 93-yard TD pass to Marvin Mims that came on third-and-11. Mims and Courtland Sutton both went over 100 receiving yards on a night where Nix threw for 294 yards, the second-highest total of his young career. Like the defense, Nix came up clutch when he had to and that’s why the Broncos were able to escape with the win. Ugly wins count the same as every other win and the Broncos will now head into their bye knowing that they just took one giant step closer toward earning a possible playoff berth in the AFC.

Broncos notes

• Bo goes long. Bo Nix threw a 93-yard touchdown to Marvin Mims in the third quarter, which was the longest touchdown pass thrown by a Denver QB in a HOME game since 1981. It was also the longest TD pass thrown by a rookie QB since Charlie Batch threw a 98-yarder for the Lions in 1998. 
• Broncos do the improbable. When a team gives up more than 550 yards in the NFL, they almost always lose, but the Broncos were able to defy those odds on Monday night. Since the start of the 2021 season, NFL teams were 0-14 when surrendering at least 550 yards, but that losing streak is now over after Denver won, despite surrendering 552 yards to the Browns. It was the second-highest yardage total that the Broncos have given up over the past 40 years. 

Finally, you can check out our full takeaways from the game here.  

2. Prisco’s Week 14 Power Rankings: Colts and Rams make big jumps

It took 14 weeks, but for the first time all season, there were no changes in Prisco’s top five. As a matter of fact, there weren’t very many changes in the power rankings at all this week. The biggest jump by any team was just three spots and the biggest drop was also just three spots. 

With that in mind, let’s check out Prisco’s top five (Bonus points if you remember what his top five was last week since it’s the exact same):

1. Lions (same as last week)
2. Bills (same as last week)
3. Chiefs (same as last week)
4. Eagles (same as last week)
5. Vikings (same as last week)

I’m not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here’s what has changed since Prisco’s last Power Rankings: 

• The biggest jump this week went to the Indianapolis Colts. After watching Anthony Richardson lead a game-winning TD drive in the final minute, it appears that Prisco is starting to buy-in to the Colts quarterback. Following their win, Prisco moved Indy up three spots from 19th to 16th. 
• The biggest jump in the NFC went to the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams pulled out a win over the Saints in Week 13 and Prisco rewarded them by moving them up three spots from 20th to 17th. 
• The biggest tumble this week went to the Baltimore Ravens. I think Prisco might be over Justin Tucker. The Ravens kicker missed a career-high three kicks in Baltimore’s 24-19 loss to Philadelphia. Due to the loss, the Ravens fell three spots from sixth to ninth.  
• Finally, let’s get the bottom of the Power Rankings. The Jaguars fell into the bottom spot last week and Prisco didn’t see any need to move them up after watching them lose to the Texans on Sunday, so for the second straight week, Jacksonville is in the cellar.  

If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco’s Week 14 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. 

Now that the calendar has hit December, my goal is to nail every single pick for the rest of the month. That goal will probably go down the drain as soon as this Thursday when the Lions play the Packers, but for now, I’m going to keep the dream alive. 

With that in mind, let’s get to three of my picks for Week 14: 

• Green Bay (9-3) at Detroit (11-1): The Packers are 8-0 this year against teams that currently have a record of .500 or worse, but just 1-3 against teams that are currently over .500. The Lions definitely fall into the category of teams that are over .500. PICK: Lions 27-24 over Packers
• Atlanta (6-6) at Minnesota (10-2): This a revenge game for Kirk Cousins, but with the way he’s playing, I’m not sure he’s going to be able to get revenge on anyone. Cousins has thrown six interceptions in his past three games and I won’t be surprised if that cold streak continues for the veteran QB. PICK: Vikings 31-24 over Falcons. 
• Seattle (7-5) at Arizona (6-6): The Cardinals have only scored one offensive touchdown in their past nine quarters of play and I can’t pick a team that only has one offensive touchdown in their past nine quarters of play. PICK: Seahawks 23-20 over Cardinals.

If you want to check out the rest of my picks for Week 14, be sure to click here. 

4.  Ranking AFC wild-card contenders: Broncos make field

We already unveiled Prisco’s Power Rankings today, but we’re not done ranking things because we’re also going to rank wild-card contenders. Tyler Sullivan went through and ranked all the wild-card contenders in the AFC. Since only three teams will earn a wild-card berth, we’ll take a look at the top three teams in his rankings, aka the teams Tyler expects to get in. 

1. Ravens (8-5). “Even after dropping their matchup to the Eagles on Sunday, we’ll still give Baltimore the top spot. They own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers and now have a nicely timed bye in Week 14 to rest up for the final month.”

2. Chargers (8-4). “Offensively, Justin Herbert is as talented as any quarterback in the league, but the Chargers are starting to get banged up around him. Running back J.K. Dobbins was recently placed on injured reserve due to a knee injury, and rookie wideout Ladd McConkey left Sunday’s win with a knee injury as well. If McConkey — who had nine catches for 117 yards in Week 13 — were to miss time, that would put a sizable dent in L.A.’s offensive attack.”

3. Broncos (8-5). “While the team did let Jameis Winston explode for nearly 500 yards passing on Monday night, Denver’s defense has been strong on balance this season. Even after coming out of Week 13, the unit is still allowing the second-fewest yards per play (4.9) this season and third-fewest points per game (18.0). There is certainly a tier drop between Denver and the top two teams on this list, but their two-game lead could loom large down the stretch and squeak into the postseason.”

First team out: Dolphins (5-7)
Note: The Colts (6-7) have a better record than Miami, but the Dolphins are higher in Sully’s rankings because he thinks they have a better chance of making the playoffs. 

You can check out Sullivan’s full rankings here. We also ranked the NFC playoff contenders, which you can see here. 

5. NFL playoff picture heading into Week 14

With only five weeks left to play in the NFL season, now seems like a good time to break down the playoff picture, so that’s exactly what we’re going to do today. 

Here’s a look at the top-seven teams from each conference:

AFC
1. Chiefs (AFC West leader): 11-1
2. Bills (Clinched AFC East): 10-2
3. Steelers (AFC North leader): 9-3
4. Texans (AFC South leader): 8-5
5. Chargers: 8-4
6. Ravens: 8-5
7. Broncos 8-5
First teams out: Colts (6-7), Dolphins (5-7)

As things stand right now, it doesn’t seem like there’s going to be much drama in the AFC playoff race. If the Chargers, Ravens and Broncos can each win just two more games, it’s hard to imagine the Colts or Dolphins catching them. Although there might not be any drama in the wild-card race, the AFC North is still up for grabs. Not only do the Ravens have a bye this week to rest up for the stretch run, but they also have a much easier schedule down the stretch compared to the Steelers. Don’t be surprised if Baltimore ends up winning the division.  

NFC 
1. Lions (NFC North leader): 11-1
2. Eagles (NFC East leader): 10-2
3. Seahawks (NFC West leader): 7-5
4. Falcons (NFC South leader): 6-6
5. Vikings (10-2)
6. Packers (9-3) 
7. Commanders (8-5) 
First teams out: Buccaneers (6-6), Cardinals (6-6), Rams (6-6)

At this point, it feels like five of the seven spots in the NFC are locked up with the Lions, Eagles, Vikings, Packers and Commanders all likely getting in. To miss the playoffs, one of those teams would have to totally collapse. Although five spots seem to be all but locked up, there will be still be some drama in thanks to two very wide-open divisions with the NFC South and NFC West. Four weeks ago, the Falcons were 6-3 and in total control of the south, but Kirk Cousins is playing some of the worst football of his career and if I had to make a pick now, I’d probably go with the Bucs to steal the division. In the NFC West, I think the winner of this week’s Arizona-Seattle game ends up taking home the division title. 

If you want a full look at the playoff standings, we’ve got the right here.   

6. Extra points: Trevor Lawrence hit leads to suspension for Texans linebacker

It was a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

• Texans linebacker hit with big suspension. The NFL has suspended Azeez Al-Shaair a total of three games for the brutal hit that he made on Trevor Lawrence during Houston’s win over Jacksonville on Sunday. With the Texans on a bye this week, that means Al-Shaair won’t be able to return until Week 18 and he’ll have to miss big games against the Dolphins, Ravens and Chiefs. You can read more about the suspension here. 
• Christian McCaffrey placed on IR. If the 49ers are going to turn their season around, they’re going to have to do it without their top two running backs. McCaffrey and Jordan Mason have BOTH been placed on IR, which means they won’t be eligible to return until Week 18 at the earliest. With those two out, Isaac Guerendo will become the lead back in San Francisco. For more McCaffrey’s injury, including his recovery timeline, you can check out our full story here. 
• ‘Hard Knocks’ kicks off tonight. For the first time ever, the HBO show will be following an entire division for its in-season version of “Hard Knocks.” The AFC North will be in the spotlight starting tonight with the debut episode at 9 p.m. ET on HBO. 
• Seahawks cut former second-round pick. The Seahawks decided to part ways with Laviska Shenault Jr., who had an ugly day on Sunday. Shenault mishandled two kickoffs, including one that he fumbled away to the Jets. Shenault, who entered the NFL in 2020 as a second-round pick with the Jaguars, was in his first season with the Seahawks. 
• Rams add former first-round pick. The Rams added some depth to their secondary on Monday by claiming Emmanuel Forbes off of waivers. The cornerback, who was taken in the first round of the 2023 draft by the Commanders, was cut by Washington on Sunday.  
• Ravens might be done with Diontae Johnson. Things are starting to get awkward in Baltimore between the Ravens and Diontae Johnson. The receiver played zero snaps against the Eagles on Sunday and John Harbaugh was vague about his future with the team when the subject came up on Monday. You can read more about the situation here.