SMU has put together a magical season, qualifying for the ACC championship game in its first year with the conference as just one of four FBS teams with an unblemished record in league play. The Mustangs now turn their attention to arguably the biggest game in program history against Clemson, with ACC glory — and a whole lot more — on the line.
Yet there’s a lingering sense that SMU is headed toward a pitfall. Yes, the Mustangs could win the ACC and automatically secure a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff field. But what happens if they lose?
Understandably, SMU coach Rhett Lashlee has expressed some reservations about even playing the game. ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips recently implored the College Football Playoff Selection Committee not to punish the loser of any conference championship game so long as that loser was already ranked inside the top 12.
SMU came in at No. 8 in the penultimate College Football Playoff Rankings release. On one hand, the Mustangs control their own destiny: beat Clemson, and there’s no doubt about their College Football Playoff standing.
Even if they lose, though — provided it isn’t in blowout fashion — this is a team that undoubtedly deserves a playoff berth. First off, the selection committee would be setting an extremely dangerous precedent if it excludes SMU.
It would provide incentive for teams to do everything they can to avoid a conference championship game in the future. Why risk a 13th data point, which almost 90% of the FBS doesn’t have to worry about, if it could cost you a shot at the national title?
The selection committee already laid the groundwork in 2023 when it excluded Florida State despite its 13-0 record and ACC crown. Conference championship games, an institution in this sport, can hardly take any more damage.
Beyond that, SMU is simply more deserving than any other at-large bubble team that could take its place. The Mustangs won 11 regular-season games. Eleven. They went undefeated in conference play and won those eight ACC games by an average of 19.4 points.
The fact that SMU even earned the right to play for a conference title should separate it from teams like Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina, all of which lost three conference games and didn’t come close to competing for a championship.
Those SEC teams had some very bad losses, too. Alabama fell to Vanderbilt for the first time since 1984 and lost 24-3 to an Oklahoma team that finished 2-6 in conference play. Ole Miss lost twice to unranked teams as a double-digit favorite.
SMU’s only loss this year? In Week 2, by three points, to a BYU team that currently ranks No. 18 in the country.
Sure, SMU doesn’t have any wins against currently ranked opponents. Neither does 11-1 Indiana, but the Hoosiers — who, again, did not qualify for a conference championship game — don’t have to sweat their College Football Playoff fate after landing at No. 9 in the latest rankings.
A lot of people, including the selection committee, point to strength of schedule when debating the merits of similarly situated teams. While it’s a fine metric to determine relative conference strength, it’s almost useless in a vacuum.
For instance, 2-10 Mississippi State currently has the No. 1 strength of schedule, per ESPN’s FPI. Should the Bulldogs be in playoff consideration just because they play in the SEC?
Games — and the results of those games — have to matter. SMU’s strength of schedule ranks 75th, but its strength of record — which accounts for what actually happened on the field — is ninth. That’s one spot ahead of Alabama, two spots ahead of South Carolina, four spots ahead of Boise State and nine spots ahead of Ole Miss.
SMU even has the per-game metrics to back a playoff bid. It currently ranks fifth nationally in scoring offense (39.2 points per game) and 19th nationally in scoring defense (19.8 points per game). If you’re not impressed by the latter, that’s better than Georgia.
SMU is, by every possible measurement, a playoff team. There’s not much a close loss to Clemson should do to change that.
