Texas vs. Clemson: Key advantages for each team in first-round College Football Playoff game

A first-ever clash between Clemson and Texas unfolds Saturday afternoon in Austin, and the storylines are plentiful. Two Texas kids playing quarterback — including the return of Austin native Cade Klubnik to the capital city. Dabo Swinney vs. Steve Sarkisian — but really, Sarkisian against Brent Venables’ defensive coordinator protégé Wes Goodwin, who no doubt picked the ear of Venables the last two weeks considering there’s history between Sark and BV. New blood vs. old blood. Clemson Orange vs. Burnt Orange.

It’s going to be a great 5 vs. 12 matchup, despite the highest spread (Texas is favored by 11.5) of any of the first-round College Football Playoff games. 

From Clemson’s efficiency against zone coverage to Texas’ ability to stretch the field, the winner will need to execute their game plan in critical areas.

Clemson’s Strengths

Cade Klubnik vs. Zone Coverage

Texas relies on zone coverage for 78% of its defensive snaps, ranking 21st nationally in usage. This plays directly into Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik’s strengths. Klubnik has thrown 21 touchdown passes against zone coverage this season, the most in the FBS. 

Red Zone Challenges

Both teams have struggled to convert red-zone opportunities into touchdowns. Clemson ranks 69th in red-zone touchdown percentage (61.2%), while Texas failed to score a touchdown on two red-zone trips in their SEC Championship loss to Georgia. Quarterback efficiency in these high-pressure moments could decide the game.

First-Quarter Dominance

Unstoppable force vs. immovable object? Clemson has been the most dominant first-quarter team in college football this season. They lead the nation in points margin (+115) and rank second in points scored (142). Texas, however, has been equally stingy on defense, allowing just 17 first-quarter points all year, the third-best mark in the FBS.

Texas’ Strengths

Quinn Ewers’ Directional Passing

Clemson’s defense may look to force Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers to throw to his right. Ewers is significantly less efficient when throwing in that direction, ranking 89th in passing efficiency compared to 11th when throwing to his left. Capitalizing on this disparity could help Clemson disrupt Texas’ passing attack, but it won’t be the first defense to know this stat in 2024 and clearly there’s something Sarkisian continues to scheme up well and to great advantage. 

Explosive Passing Game

For all the grief Ewers gets, Texas does thrive on explosive passing plays, ranking third in the FBS with 65 completions of 20+ yards. This could spell trouble for Clemson, whose defense has allowed 41 such plays, ranking T-92nd nationally. Texas’ ability to rack up chunk plays will be a big factor — and it would be especially nice for the Longhorns if they could house one or two of those explosives, considering the recent red zone issues. 

Home Defensive Dominance

Texas’ pass defense at home has been nearly flawless this season, ranking first in opposing QB efficiency and pass touchdowns allowed. The list of visiting quarterbacks has not been very good, no — Carson Beck was the best opposing QB at DKR this year, and second-best may have been Mississippi State’s Michael Van Buren. With 12 interceptions and just 922 passing yards allowed, the Longhorns are going to challenge Klubnik to beat them with his arm. Clemson has really good receivers, but Texas loves its secondary, too. 

SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for 10 outright upsets during college football’s bowl and playoff season. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.