There is perhaps no matchup on the NFL’s Week 11 schedule that warrants more anticipation than, well, the same matchup that’s captivated audiences for years: the Buffalo Bills versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
Of the last six meetings between the AFC heavyweights, five have either been one-score contests, playoff matchups, or both. Of the postseason games in that span, one was an AFC championship, another went to overtime, and another came down to a missed field goal.
In other words, when they square off, it’s must-see TV. Which is why CBS Sports will feature special coverage of this Sunday’s affair, airing “The NFL Today” live from Buffalo ahead of the game broadcast. Fans can join the crew in Lot 6 at Highmark Stadium starting at 12 p.m. ET on Sunday, hours before these two Super Bowl hopefuls go head to head once more.
How can you tune in? Which players could be X-factors? And who’s actually primed to win? Here’s our preview and sports betting prediction for the anticipated showdown:
Chiefs vs. Bills where to watch
Date: Sunday, Nov. 17 | Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Bills -2.5, O/U 46.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Key matchups
USATSI
- Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Bills CB Rasul Douglas: JuJu Smith-Schuster could be back in the lineup for Kansas City, but Hopkins remains the trustiest outlet for Patrick Mahomes on the perimeter, collecting 14 passes for more than 140 yards in his last two games as a Chief. Douglas, meanwhile, is Buffalo’s top ballhawk, with five pass breakups, though he’s still searching for his first pick of 2024.
- Bills TE Dalton Knox vs. Chiefs S Justin Reid: Buffalo could be down several of its top wide receivers due to injury, and top tight end Dalton Kincaid is out with a banged-up knee. As a result, Knox figures to have a more prominent role as a safety valve for Josh Allen. Reid is one of K.C.’s savvier defensive backs, and could be charged with blanketing the middle.
- Chiefs OT Jawaan Taylor vs. Bills DE Greg Rousseau: Kansas City’s front will be under pressure at left tackle, where Wanya Morris is hurt, but the bigger challenge could be off the right side, where Taylor’s penalties continue to spark conversation. Rousseau has enjoyed a breakout as Buffalo’s top rusher, racking up 16 quarterback hits and a career-high 12 tackles for loss in Year 4.
Burning questions
USATSI
- Bills: Can Josh Allen attack Steve Spagnuolo’s defense without a healthy arsenal of weapons? Spagnuolo is once again overseeing a dominant “D” in Kansas City, with the Chiefs surrendering the fifth-fewest points of any team and largely suffocating opposing run games. Allen is as capable as anyone of playing Superman, and he’s also proven excellent against the blitz, but if top receivers like Amari Cooper aren’t available or at full speed, and the James Cook-led ground game can’t break open, he could be hard-pressed for patience.
- Chiefs: Can the Patrick Mahomes-led offense finally hit a new gear? Again, K.C.’s defense isn’t much of a concern. But Mahomes and Co. have won almost exclusively on the margins, relying on late-game conversions and defensive stands to stay unbeaten. The Bills, meanwhile, rank second in total takeaways (19) this year, and also register as a top-10 scoring defense. With starting ball-carrier Isiah Pacheco still out, and star tight end Travis Kelce functioning as a mere short-yardage outlet, head coach Andy Reid may need to get creative to unlock splash plays.
Prediction
There will no doubt be a physical edge to this one, and it’ll be a mild stunner if it isn’t close. There’s a specific trend related to the matchups of the Allen-Mahomes era that’s likely to continue, however: Whereas Mahomes is undefeated against Allen and the Bills in the playoffs, it’s Allen that has the decisive edge in the regular season, owning a 3-1 career mark against Kansas City. Yes, the Bills may be shorthanded out wide, and the Chiefs are, well, the Chiefs. But Allen has done more as a big-play quarterback in 2024, and Sean McDermott’s defense has held relatively firm in the red zone, giving the home squad the edge.
Pick: Bills 24, Chiefs 23
