A shake-up is imminent Monday in the AP Top 25 college basketball rankings after a chaotic week in the sport that saw the No. 2, No. 6 and No. 9 teams all take losses to lower-ranked teams. No. 2 Alabama was the highest-ranked team to stumble last week, falling short Friday to Purdue inside rowdy Mackey Arena, which is reflected in the ranks below projecting how we think the latest AP poll shakes out Monday. But Duke and Arizona also slipped last week as favorites, and are projected to tumble out of the top 10 as a result.
So let’s try and untangle the mess that was in the space below.
This will be a weekly safe space for us to guess how we think AP voters will react to the results of the week, making it of course different than Gary Parrish’s daily Top 25 And 1 rankings and different than my weekly Power Rankings. This is all about taking into account the entire season’s body of work, factoring in the last week since the most recent AP Top 25 poll, and then trying to break into the brain of voters to guess how we think the upcoming poll Monday will look.
Our best guess is below — with a familiar name remaining at No. 1.
1. Kansas (Last week — 1): Kansas has not been the best team in college basketball this season but it has not done enough to warrant being bumped off the No. 1 spot in the rankings after beginning the year there. Wins over Michigan State and Oakland this week kept it unbeaten at 4-0.
2. UConn (3): The back-to-back champs are 3-0 on the season with a scoring margin of 38.7 ppg — which ranks third nationally. The schedule has been soft, but the Huskies have been forceful in their efforts thus far. They move up to take Alabama’s previous spot at No. 2.
3. Gonzaga (4): Gonzaga doubled-up UMass Lowell 113-54 in its only outing of the week. The Zags should be No. 3 heading into a big Monday night meeting on the road vs. San Diego State.
4. Auburn (5): The Tigers ranked No. 1 in my debut Power Rankings of the season last week, but I’m skeptical voters will be quite as high on Auburn as me. This feels like the right spot for them right now coming off a 23-point home drubbing of Kent State.
5. Iowa State (7): Another win by 25+ over a team it was favored to win big over doesn’t move the needle much for Iowa State, but it does move up two spots after Alabama and Duke tumbled this week. The Cyclones have IU Indy on Monday before a doozy the following Monday vs. Auburn.
6. Houston (8): The No. 1-ranked defense in adjusted efficiency margin at KenPom.com belongs to the Cougars, who bounced back from a tough loss to Auburn with a 91-45 beatdown at home vs. Louisiana this week.
7. Purdue (13): Hellllllllooooooooooo, Boilermakers, and welcome to the top 10! Voters were right to be skeptical of this team’s ceiling after Zach Edey moved on to the NBA, but voters should now acknowledge the obvious after Purdue downed Bama 87-78 on Friday: this team very much remains a contender despite losing Edey with Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn running the show.
8. Alabama (2): It’s hard to envision voters penalizing Alabama too much after losing on the road — at Mackey Arena! — to a Purdue team that clearly is better than its ranking suggested. The Tide should fall below the Boilermakers, and one spot below them seems like a reasonable reaction to recent results.
9. Kentucky (19): Coach Mark Pope and his Kentucky team made a statement this week in defeating No. 6 Duke in the Champions Classic 77-72. The Wildcats should be in contention to move into the top 10 after that result, which moved them to 3-0 on the season.
10. North Carolina (10): UNC won 107-55 in its lone outing of the week over American. The Tar Heels’ only loss on the early season remains against No. 1 Kansas.
11. Tennessee (11): Two games this week as heavy favorites resulted in two big wins for Tennessee over Montana and Austin Peay. Vols gets Virginia on Thursday in the Bahamas.
12. Duke (6): How far will voters push Duke down? We’ll see. My hunch is the Blue Devils fall out of the top 10 after its 77-72 loss to No. 19 Kentucky on Tuesday in the Champions Classic. The Blue Devils shouldn’t fall much further, though. They’re 3-1 on the year and already back on track after an 86-35 win at home Saturday vs. Wofford.
13. Baylor (12): The Bears defeated Sam Houston State 104-67 earlier this week and play Tarleton State on Sunday night.
14. Creighton (14): Not yet facing a team ranked inside the top 200 of KenPom’s rankings is what is keeping the Bluejays from moving up, but they’re not moving down given what they’ve done in those games. Creighton is 4-0 and has won by an average of more than 24.0 points in those outings.
15. Indiana (16): I’ll be watching ballots closely Monday to see how voters rank Indiana and whether or not they’re still sleeping on the Hoosiers. An 87-71 win over South Carolina at home Saturday was another checkpoint crossed for IU, and they’ve consistently looked good this season.
16. Arizona (9): Maybe seven spots is too much of a punishment for a road loss to an unranked Wisconsin team. But this feels about right. The Wildcats’ defense is again a question mark despite an amazing offense.
17. Marquette (15): Kentucky and Indiana moving up in the poll means a deserving Marquette team gets an undeserved bump down two spots despite a huge road win vs. Maryland. Curious to see how voters approach this — and would wager Duke and/or Arizona falling below Marquette might be a decision they wrestle with.
18. Florida (20): The Gators passed their first tough test of the season with an 87-72 road win at Florida State on Friday to improve to 4-0. Their offense is firing on all cylinders led by their veteran-laden backcourt of Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard and Alijah Martin.
19. Cincinnati (17): Cincinnati falls two spots in the rankings this week in part because of its soft nonconference schedule that makes it hard to gauge its bona fides. The Bearcats dominated a hapless Nicholls team in their only game of the last week 86-49.
20. Arkansas (18): A 65-49 home win over Troy should be enough to keep Arkansas somewhere in the top 20 this week despite the noise surrounding other teams around this spot in the poll from last week.
21. St. John’s (22): Rick Pitino and St. John’s took down Richard Pitino and New Mexico on Sunday 85-71 to stay unbeaten on the year. The Red Storm have a big one upcoming Thursday vs. Baylor in the Bahamas.
22. Texas A&M (23): Texas A&M defeated No. 21 Ohio State at home Friday 78-64 and should be on the climb Monday when the next rankings drop. Aggies dropped their season-opener vs. UCF on the road but have responded well the last two weeks.
23. Rutgers (24): Wins over Saint Peter’s and Monmouth by 10 and 17 points, respectively, isn’t likely to move voters one way or another on the Scarlet Knights. They’re 3-0 and ranked properly right now in the mid 20s.
24. Ole Miss (25): Chris Beard’s Rebels are 4-0 on the season and should continue to be ranked come Monday.
25. Texas Tech (NR): I’m hopeful voters see just how good Texas Tech has been against inferior opponents this season and rank the Red Raiders, though I’d understand if we wait until they face some real competition. Their 96-49 win over Wyoming on Wednesday barely even registered as a wow after winning by 21 and 33 points in the two games prior.
Projected to drop out: No. 21 Ohio State
