Let’s dive into this week’s edition of 10 Trends after digesting numerous games from the past week.
1. Michigan State’s remarkable 3-point defense
To keep it simple, there are three types of 3-pointers that a player can take:
- An open catch-and-shoot 3-pointer
- A contested catch-and-shoot 3-pointer
- An off-the-dribble 3-pointer.
Here’s what the median college basketball teams are shooting on those shots this year:
- 37% on unguarded catch-and-shoot 3-pointers
- 32% on guarded catch-and-shoot 3-pointers
- 29% on off-the-dribble 3-pointers
Not all 3-pointers are created equal because who is taking them matters, but the data suggests that those unguarded catch-and-shoot 3-pointers are the best ones to take. Elite offenses are trying to generate a ton of those looks.
For Michigan State’s Tom Izzo, eliminating those open catch-and-shoot treys has been the secret sauce behind Michigan State’s 16-2 start. In Sunday’s grimy 80-78 win over then-No. 19 Illinois, the Illini attempted 24 3-pointers. Just two of them were graded as unguarded catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, per Synergy.
Turns out, that was not an anomaly for this Michigan State defense. The eighth-ranked Spartans have allowed an unguarded catch-and-shoot 3-pointer on just 7.3% of its defensive possessions this year. That’s No. 1 among all high-major clubs.
No. 8 Michigan State looks to keep its unblemished Big Ten record alive Saturday when it tangles with Rutgers (1:30 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming on CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App and Paramount+ with Showtime).
Maryland has played eight Big Ten games. Six of them have been decided by six points or fewer. That close-game trend isn’t disappearing anytime soon in a Big Ten that’s chalked full of competence from top to bottom.
Maryland’s hierarchy in late-clock situations is pretty clear. It’s Gillespie time, and the Belmont transfer is a man with a plan in clutch scenarios. He isn’t letting the defense off the hook with stepback, fadeaway jumpers. When the game is on the line, Gillespie has turned into a paint-seeking missile.
Gillespie’s drives have been money in the bank for Maryland all year. He’s turned it over on just two of his 26 drives and Maryland is averaging 1.269 points per possession on ’em.
Unlike the NBA, college basketball does not have accessible clutch-time data. If it did, Gillespie would be near the top of the charts.
Maryland starts a Midwest road trip Thursday to play No. 17 Illinois before Sunday’s matchup against Indiana (12 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming on CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App and Paramount+ with Showtime).
3. Duke’s Khaman Maluach’s having under-the-radar outstanding season
No. 2 Duke is doing some incredible things defensively with Maluach and Cooper Flagg on the floor together. Opponents are shooting just 52% at the rim against the Blue Devils when Jon Scheyer has the two long, hyper-athletic freshmen in the game together.
But you already knew that.
The underrated part of Duke’s offense is how dominant it is at the rim on the other end, too. When Maluach and Flagg are on the floor together, Duke is shooting 72% at the rim and owns a sizzling 131 offensive rating, per CBB Analytics. Duke’s spacing has been immaculate, and Jon Scheyer has given Flagg the freedom to develop into even more of a terrifying on-ball creator.
But Maluach, the roller, has been outstanding all year and helps unlock a ton of those open 3-pointers or shots at the rim.
Duke is shaping up to be a complete, utter Goliath at the rim on both ends. Opponents can’t generate much rim pressure and can’t shoot a layup without the fear of it getting swatted into the bleachers. They also can’t stop Duke from getting a ton of fantastic shots at the basket.
4. Tennessee’s offense adding extra wrinkles
Tennessee’s offense is quietly starting to find more buttons to press offensively. Chaz Lanier’s early-season heater has forced opposing defenses into a panic trying to take him away. But Lanier is a two-level scorer. He shoots a ton of 3-pointers and pull-up jumpers. When Lanier is the focal point of the offense, Tennessee’s rim rate is naturally going to be lower.
There’s a big impetus on Felix Okpara and Zakai Zeigler to generate that rim pressure in the halfcourt to add variety to Tennessee’s offense. Saturday’s 76-75 loss to Vanderbilt was frustrating, but Tennessee showed real signs of dynamism in its pick-and-roll game. Okpara and Zeigler connected time and time again, and the big fella finished with a season-high 16 points.
Other tweaks are happening, too. Sixth-man Jordan Gainey is getting more and more run to keep the spacing pristine. Vanderbilt was hugging Lanier, Gainey and Igor Milicic on the perimeter, so when Zeigler was able to knife into the lane, the lob to Okpara was free cheese. During SEC play, Tennessee has a +25 net rating with Gainey on the floor next to the core quartet of Zeigler, Okpara, Lanier and Milicic.
That connection between Zeigler and Okpara is a big reason why. It’s far more on-point now than it did six weeks ago and it gives No. 6 Tennessee that extra layer. Lanier provides gravity on the perimeter for Tennessee’s offense, but Okpara provides it as well, just in a different, sky-scraper sort of way.
“Offensively, it is going to come,” Tennessee associate head coach Justin Gainey told reporters this week. “I think we do a great job of spacing the floor. I think he does a good job of moving without the ball and finding those sweet spots and being able to play with Zakai (Zeigler) on that penetration. I am excited where Felix is right now. He has more in the tank.”
5. Malik Thomas‘ explosion at San Francisco
If we ranked the top 100 players in college basketball at the midseason mark, Thomas would be on my ballot.
The San Francisco senior guard is having an incredible season for the Dons. He’s up to 20.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists with fabulous efficiency numbers across the board.
It’s hard to pick out the best stat, so you get all of ’em.
- 35% on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers
- 56% (!!) on off-the-dribble 3-pointers
- 47% on midrange jumpers
- 58% at the rim
Thomas is an absolute headache who is single-handedly capable of going toe-to-toe with any high-major guard in the country. He gave Loyola-Chicago 35 points. He torched Washington State and Santa Clara for 34. He ripped Memphis for 25 points. Even in a foul-riddled game against Boise State, Thomas totaled 22.
Thomas is on an absolute bender and is one of the most-improved players in college basketball which is saying something because he was very effective last year.
San Francisco will lace ’em up against Saint Mary’s on Thursday (9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network and streaming on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App).
Mississippi State’s best three players are three returners: Josh Hubbard, Cam Matthews and KeShawn Murphy.
But Chris Jans’ transfer-portal haul deserves some love. They’re a big reason why the No. 14 Bulldogs are off to a 15-3 start ahead of Tuesday’s showdown against No. 6 Tennessee.
Wings like RJ Melendez, Riley Kugel and Claudell Harris have all become the best versions of themselves at Mississippi State. On paper, one would think that those three guys could cancel each other out because they play the same positions. But they’re each unique and critical to Mississippi State’s process on both ends.
Melendez has been a high-major rotation player for three years dating back to his Illinois and Georgia days, but his 115.8 offensive rating at Mississippi State is the highest, by far. He’s bought into being an excellent cutter and the 6-foot-7 wing is a terrific defender.
Kugel showed serious flashes at Florida, but his tape featured a ton of mistakes and missed opportunities at the rim. He’s simplified his game a tad at Mississippi State, and Kugel is up to a career-best 115.7 offensive rating while shooting 60% at the rim. He shot just 50% at the cup last year with the Gators. Harris is a high-volume gunner who has helped Jans retool this shot-chart in a major way. Harris has accepted a slightly lower usage rate than he had at Boston College, but the efficiency is exactly where it needs to be. He’s shooting 37% from 3-point range, 51% on 2-pointers and 76% at the charity stripe.
It wasn’t that long ago that Mississippi State was the worst-shooting 3-point team in college basketball. Those days are long gone thanks to smart evaluations in the portal.
Xavier chose to do an interesting wrinkle in Saturday’s 59-57 win over then-No. 7 Marquette by putting 5-man Zach Freemantle on Stevie Mitchell, a 6-3, 200-pound defensive maestro.
Asking a big man to guard a non-shooter is nothing new or groundbreaking, but Freemantle handled that assignment brilliantly. Marquette’s offense could never get in a rhythm and posted a season-worst 0.85 points per possession.
Shaka Smart tried everything. He used Mitchell as a screener. Freemantle didn’t bite. He used Mitchell as a driver. Freemantle moved his puppies flawlessly. He used Mitchell as a spacer. Freemantle smartly jumped in the lanes to clog it up and force Marquette into some uncharacteristic turnovers.
Mitchell finished with seven points on 2-for-11 shooting, and Marquette big man Ben Gold was also neutralized (five points on five shots) because Xavier’s big wings could easily run with him on the perimeter.
It was a terrific plan by Sean Miller and his staff. Excellent execution by Freemantle.
There are just five players in college basketball who are 6-9 or taller and have an assist rate north of 27.0.
- North Dakota State’s Jacksen Moni
- Belmont’s Jonathan Pierre
- BYU’s Egor Demin
- Penn’s Nick Spinoso
- Nevada’s Kobe Sanders
Sanders has quickly picked up steam as one of the most intriguing newcomers in the Mountain West. The Cal Poly transfer is one of the most potent pick-and-roll operators in the league, and he can get to his midrange jumper over just about anybody. But it’s the playmaking that’s even more intriguing from a NBA perspective.
Nevada isn’t a heavy pick-and-roll team, but it may need to ramp up those ball-screen actions even more. Even extra dribble-handoff shenanigans with Sanders and stud 6-10 forward Nick Davidson should put defenses in binds. Both are mismatch-hunters who can pass, dribble and shoot. Plus, Sanders is so big and can see over the top of every defense. His feel for the game is evident, too.
Nevada will need Sanders to be at his best this week. The Wolfpack travel to Utah State Wednesday before hosting San Diego State Saturday (10 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network and streaming on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App).
Losing Andrew Carr to Kentucky was a big blow for Wake Forest this offseason, but Carr’s replacement, Tre’Von Spillers, has been outstanding for the surging ‘Deacs.
The 6-7, 215-pound forward has become a guy that Steve Forbes simply cannot take off the floor. The on-off splits are jarring. Wake Forest has a +11 net rating with Spillers on the floor and a -5 net rating with Spillers on the bench. Opponents shoot 49% at the rim against Wake Forest with Spillers on the floor and 66% (!!) when he’s taking a breather.
Spillers has become Wake Forest’s Iron-man, dirty-work specialist. He’s a safe bet to get the first crack at Flagg when Duke comes to Winston-Salem for Saturday’s ACC showdown.
Wake Forest will need Hunter Sallis to keep scoring like an All-American, but it can’t beat Duke without Spillers frustrating Flagg.
10. Santa Clara bombing away from downtown
Santa Clara is on some sort of heater. Since Dec. 1, the Broncos are 10-2 thanks to an offense that’s chucking from downtown. In the previous 12 games, Santa Clara is shooting a more-than-serviceable 37.5% from 3-point range, but it’s the volume that stands out. Nearly 49% of Santa Clara’s shots have come from downtown in the last 12 games. Only 16 teams are shooting a higher percentage of treys than Santa Clara in that span, per Bart Torvik.
Take a lot of 3-pointers. Make a lot of 3-pointers. Win a lot of games.
It also helps when your opponents are only shooting 29% from downtown during that 12-game sample size.
Santa Clara tangles with Washington State on Thursday in a pivotal West Coast Conference battle (11 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network and streaming on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App).
